40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Am i reading that right? It has rain as part of the precip? Don't take it literally....you aren't going to mix outside of the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 1.91" for TAN. And no way I am rain and 34F with this setup. http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_Ktan.txt 2.44" on the NAM http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Ktan.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 JMA is nice.....jackpots Dom and I, over to Will, to Kev and Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It was actually me who mentioned Jan 2005....but not in the context that the storm would equal or exceed Jan 2005, but that we could potentially see our best widespread snows since Jan 2005. Its probably even a bit early for that, but if 00z model consensus came true, we probably would see the best since that storm....but we'd still have to see a lot of improved signals to even talk about this storm equaling Jan 2005 IMHO. Its been a totally ridiculous spread on the models and flip-flop that I can remember in recent years though. I def think this is one of the harder forecasts. Yep, Will...I've been on the long term desk since Wednesday, and it's given me headaches! I see what you're saying about the widespread snows. Models tonight are very impressive on the QPF amounts, especially over E MA/RI. Can almost see banding (of sorts) setting up. And I do agree about the ptype issue across Cape Cod and the islands, possibly to coastal Plymouth county. I'm also VERY concerned with the rapid intensification of this system and its wind field. If things come together, could see the "B" word mentioned!!! (We don't say that much in the office!! ) It'll be very interesting to watch. I just hope we don't have epic bridge jumpers if this doesn't work out (please DON'T!). --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Never say never. I never did. Skepticism is another thing altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yup, don't worry too much about the sfc temp, it's certainly cold enough aloft and during the height of the storm the snow rates will be so extreme with so much lift and omega it would overcome any minor sfc warmth. Only spots with issues potentially is Cape area and spots further west potentially. I figured we would be good, just thought I would make sure. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well particulars can certainly change, but my theory is that this storm is a caboose storm.... It is the culmination and end of this wx pattern. So we gotta have that reload probably. Lets hope the >32 period can be minimized as much as possible in God's Country. I read that post youn made earlier. It made sense and we've certainly seen that happen before. We'll just have to cross that bridge when it's plowed out.lol Honestly, I could see the Euro throwing a bucket of cold cirrus on this party. Either way, it's been entertaining so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yep, Will...I've been on the long term desk since Wednesday, and it's given me headaches! I see what you're saying about the widespread snows. Models tonight are very impressive on the QPF amounts, especially over E MA/RI. Can almost see banding (of sorts) setting up. And I do agree about the ptype issue across Cape Cod and the islands, possibly to coastal Plymouth county. I'm also VERY concerned with the rapid intensification of this system and its wind field. If things come together, could see the "B" word mentioned!!! (We don't say that much in the office!! ) It'll be very interesting to watch. I just hope we don't have epic bridge jumpers if this doesn't work out (please DON'T!). --Turtle I promise you that I would absolutely lose it; I'd probably request Will to put me on a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think DT is feeling this one again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yep, Will...I've been on the long term desk since Wednesday, and it's given me headaches! I see what you're saying about the widespread snows. Models tonight are very impressive on the QPF amounts, especially over E MA/RI. Can almost see banding (of sorts) setting up. And I do agree about the ptype issue across Cape Cod and the islands, possibly to coastal Plymouth county. I'm also VERY concerned with the rapid intensification of this system and its wind field. If things come together, could see the "B" word mentioned!!! (We don't say that much in the office!! ) It'll be very interesting to watch. I just hope we don't have epic bridge jumpers if this doesn't work out (please DON'T!). --Turtle LOL! We would probably lose half of the members if this were to not work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think DT is feeling this one again. Whats he saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 1.91" for TAN. And no way I am rain and 34F with this setup. http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Ktan.txt I understand Bufkit is in the two foot range even on Islip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 A little lousy JMA while we wait for Santa to deliver the Euro I know the JMA is usually considered quite unreliable (for good reason) but gotta give it some credit as the only international model to "see" what the GFS saw in the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I read that post youn made earlier. It made sense and we've certainly seen that happen before. We'll just have to cross that bridge when it's plowed out.lol Honestly, I could see the Euro throwing a bucket of cold cirrus on this party. Either way, it's been entertaining so far. Agreed........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thanks Eleanor...good thoughts. Happy Holidays to you and yours and thanks for all your help to us all and me personally. You're too sweet, Jerry. Hope you had a Happy Hanukkah! My deepest condolences on the passing of your wife's relative. --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Whats he saying? Just go peruse the 00z thread on the main forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 JMA is nice.....jackpots Dom and I, over to Will, to Kev and Steve. Ok million dollar Santa all his gifts in one pack question, What do we do if Euro says FU not KU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 His area up DC probably has almost no snow in their forecast ...if based on prior runs. Now the GFS says a decent snowstorm and people may get very little lead time around there if forecasts change in the morning. I think DT is feeling this one again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yep, Will...I've been on the long term desk since Wednesday, and it's given me headaches! I see what you're saying about the widespread snows. Models tonight are very impressive on the QPF amounts, especially over E MA/RI. Can almost see banding (of sorts) setting up. And I do agree about the ptype issue across Cape Cod and the islands, possibly to coastal Plymouth county. I'm also VERY concerned with the rapid intensification of this system and its wind field. If things come together, could see the "B" word mentioned!!! (We don't say that much in the office!! ) It'll be very interesting to watch. I just hope we don't have epic bridge jumpers if this doesn't work out (please DON'T!). --Turtle Yeah Eleanor, this is a tough one. I'm still wary of the "over trend". Sometimes the models will see something and then go nuts with it only to back off a bit the next run. But given its 60h out, we probably feel pretty good, but then again, we all felt pretty good about where this might go at 72h. This is definitely one of the toughest I've seen and one of the biggest model swings in recent times during a system as large as this. I was even reluctant to mention Jan 2005 at all even if it was a reference to the last time we'd have to go back and find a snowfall bigger than what 00z models are showing....because it could just go poof in 1 run and back to a run of the mill warning criteria event for eastern MA/RI with maybe a bigger impact on the Cape. I'm feeling pretty good about this one, but given how complex the phasing is and the way the models cannot seem to handle it, I'm definitely on guard. The spread on ensembles is still pretty big for this far out. (SREF anyway!!) BTW, Merry Christmas to you and everyone at the office!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ok million dollar Santa all his gifts in one pack question, What do we do if Euro says FU not KU I don't think NWS jumps on without the Euro. Euro has been too good with this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I promise you that I would absolutely lose it; I'd probably request Will to put me on a break. Glad to hear. I was thinking of you when I wrote that, Ray! --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Euro is running... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Gary Gray is writing a classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Time is limited. Watch it, bub. I'm lurking here. Kidding. Hope you all have a great holiday. As for this storm... I think the NAM is about right now... perhaps a hint west/stronger towards the GFS. I'd like to see the Canadian come around a bit more... but it already made a huge jump and not exactly the best model. I think HPC is overplaying the errors/issues, so I wouldn't disregard the 00Z GFS. Still, I'm leaning closer to the NAM. I'm expecting the impending Euro to shift back west at least 75% of the way to the NAM. Whether or not it comes back all the way, who knows. Remember, the sweet spot for the Euro time-wise is not the 36-72hr forecast range. Don't expect it to be the best model right now... so, as long as it pulls back most of the way, I'm comfortable with a solution close to the NAM... major storm for S & E New England. Not sure the M.A. gets it, like the GFS shows... frankly, I'm flatly unsure there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Euro is running... Anxiety at an all time high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hi Eleanor!!! This is Craig Goedecke..former NWS Coop Observer and Skywarn spotter from Jaffrey...living in Hull Mass...400feet from the Atlantic side of the Ocean... give me a ring after Christmas...would love to chat with you...call me at 781-925-6357 home number....Miss ya much and great to see you here on American wx forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yep, Will...I've been on the long term desk since Wednesday, and it's given me headaches! I see what you're saying about the widespread snows. Models tonight are very impressive on the QPF amounts, especially over E MA/RI. Can almost see banding (of sorts) setting up. And I do agree about the ptype issue across Cape Cod and the islands, possibly to coastal Plymouth county. I'm also VERY concerned with the rapid intensification of this system and its wind field. If things come together, could see the "B" word mentioned!!! (We don't say that much in the office!! ) It'll be very interesting to watch. I just hope we don't have epic bridge jumpers if this doesn't work out (please DON'T!). --Turtle No way to stop the weenies from taking the plunge if this one doesn't work out. It would be absolute carnage no doubt. With this type of consolidated guidance this close in - the wild swings fade from the memory immediately and all us weenies can think about is trudging through beautiful deep snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Load an up to date enhanced wv loop...it's a thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Watch it, bub. I'm lurking here. Kidding. Hope you all have a great holiday. As for this storm... I think the NAM is about right now... perhaps a hint west/stronger towards the GFS. I'd like to see the Canadian come around a bit more... but it already made a huge jump and not exactly the best model. I think HPC is overplaying the errors/issues, so I wouldn't disregard the 00Z GFS. Still, I'm leaning closer to the NAM. I'm expecting the impending Euro to shift back west at least 75% of the way to the NAM. Whether or not it comes back all the way, who knows. Remember, the sweet spot for the Euro time-wise is not the 36-72hr forecast range. Don't expect it to be the best model right now... so, as long as it pulls back most of the way, I'm comfortable with a solution close to the NAM... major storm for S & E New England. Not sure the M.A. gets it, like the GFS shows... frankly, I'm flatly unsure there. Thanks WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hi Eleanor!!! This is Craig Goedecke..former NWS Coop Observer and Skywarn spotter from Jaffrey...living in Hull Mass...400feet from the Atlantic side of the Ocean... give me a ring after Christmas...would love to chat with you...call me at 781-925-6357 home number....Miss ya much and great to see you here on American wx forum! Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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