Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 looking at the 0z gfs, looks like southern ct, ri, and se mass are above 32 at the height of the storm...thoughts? Too early to really even contemplate that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Any chance we get a "like" feature similar to facebook - some of the posts in this thread are extremely insightful or funny and it'd be nice to have a simple feature to give them a thumbs up - perhaps there's a feature request section... Would have liked the suggestion of the "Christmas Miracle Storm" Anyways - Will, Ryan and the other NE(and visiting) red tags - thanks for putting up with us weenies and joining in the fun, your analysis is always top notch! Merry Christmas all, here's to some blizzard watches being hoisted in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow...AWESOME analogs there. Its based off the GFS which is the most amped solution...so you have to know that before using the CIPS tool. I like to see the GFS be in the middle normally before using that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 looking at the 0z gfs, looks like southern ct, ri, and se mass are above 32 at the height of the storm...thoughts? S. CT all snow per sounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 OK folks... I worked the long term desk when the 12Z model runs came in Friday. I saw the major change that the GFS did, as the others on shift did. We thought there might be a problem with such a shift. There was even early discussion on the interoffice IM system between Albany, Brookhaven and HPC. HPC confirmed the init problems, so we wanted to wait until we saw more data. We stayed the course, especially with the GGEM well S (as it had been for several runs, which lent to some confidence), and the EC somewhat offshore but a bit closer to the coast. The 18Z NAM went crazy as well. Again, I felt that there was still init issues back to the 12Z ingest. I had to look at the runs from here at home tonight to see what happens. I did have a feeling in the pit of my stomach that things would remain very interesting. Beyond my expectations. Not only did the NAM and GFS continue to slam eastern areas, the GGEM did its sudden switch and came close. OH MY! I can't recall seeing such major switches in model solutions in very short timeframes (12 hours, or even 6 hours). Someone mentioned the January 2005 storm. I worked the mid shifts leading into that storm. The models were VERY stable, and gave its signals for a major storm several days in advance. This potential storm is quite different leading into it, at least as the model progression has run over the last several days. Time will tell if this potential storm competes with Jan '05 for snow totals. I do agree with Will, though. Could still see another epic turnaround as we get closer to verify time. However, in my 25+ years experience, as we get close to verify time, it's tougher for quick changes in shorter time. Not unheard of, I guess, but might happen. Heck, we saw it happen on the 12Z runs, and now the 00Z GGEM. Will be very interesting to watch over the holiday weekend. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Its based off the GFS which is the most amped solution...so you have to know that before using the CIPS tool. I like to see the GFS be in the middle normally before using that. Ohh I thought that was a blend there...didn't realize just GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well we better enjoy the snow next week (those that get it) because it's balmy breezes for New Years on the GFS. It's a pretty brutal thaw, but then back into deep winter. Geez Bob, you said I had a slim chance for 4" out here and yet those analogs suggest it could slightly better. Good thing your not an on air Met.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thanks for the thoughts Eleanor. Merry Christmas to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ohh I thought that was a blend there...didn't realize just GFS. You needs to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 S. CT all snow per sounds. Even the coastline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Someone mentioned the January 2005 storm. I worked the mid shifts leading into that storm. The models were VERY stable, and gave its signals for a major storm several days in advance. This potential storm is quite different leading into it, at least as the model progression has run over the last several days. Time will tell if this potential storm competes with Jan '05 for snow totals. --Turtle It was actually me who mentioned Jan 2005....but not in the context that the storm would equal or exceed Jan 2005, but that we could potentially see our best widespread snows since Jan 2005. Its probably even a bit early for that, but if 00z model consensus came true, we probably would see the best since that storm....but we'd still have to see a lot of improved signals to even talk about this storm equaling Jan 2005 IMHO. Its been a totally ridiculous spread on the models and flip-flop that I can remember in recent years though. I def think this is one of the harder forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thanks for the thoughts Eleanor. Merry Christmas to you. Thought you'd enjoy that one, Bob. And a Merry Christmas to you and yours as well, my friend! --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well we better enjoy the snow next week (those that get it) because it's balmy breezes for New Years on the GFS. It's a pretty brutal thaw, but then back into deep winter. I really don't put much stock in model depictions beyond 48-72hrs. You can see why.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 It was actually me who mentioned Jan 2005....but not in the context that the storm would equal or exceed Jan 2005, but that we could potentially see our best widespread snows since Jan 2005. Its probably even a bit early for that, but if 00z model consensus came true, we probably would see the best since that storm....but we'd still have to see a lot of improved signals to even talk about this storm equaling Jan 2005 IMHO. Its been a totally ridiculous spread on the models and flip-flop that I can remember in recent years though. I def think this is one of the harder forecasts. i guarantee you'd take this over another SWFE everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 1.33" of liquid for me on the GFS: http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_KBED.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas All, Eleanor, now if the Euro stays the same as12Z, what to do? I mean it will b Euro against the world and that includes Japanese and Korean,And Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Even the coastline? Yup, don't worry too much about the sfc temp, it's certainly cold enough aloft and during the height of the storm the snow rates will be so extreme with so much lift and omega it would overcome any minor sfc warmth. Only spots with issues potentially is Cape area and spots further west potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I expected an event of this magnitude, but not in December. I think your (and my) chances of warning criteria have increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 1.33" of liquid for me on the GFS: http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_KBED.txt 1.45" on the NAM; nice agreement: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KBED.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 1.33" of liquid for me on the GFS: http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_KBED.txt I like how it tries to give you moderate rain as ptype at 54h with the sfc at 26F and the entire column well below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 A little lousy JMA while we wait for Santa to deliver the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thanks Eleanor...good thoughts. Happy Holidays to you and yours and thanks for all your help to us all and me personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 1.33" of liquid for me on the GFS: http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_KBED.txt 1.91" for TAN. And no way I am rain and 34F with this setup. http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Ktan.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well particulars can certainly change, but my theory is that this storm is a caboose storm.... It is the culmination and end of this wx pattern. So we gotta have that reload probably. Lets hope the >32 period can be minimized as much as possible in God's Country. I really don't put much stock in model depictions beyond 48-72hrs. You can see why.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 1.33" of liquid for me on the GFS: http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_KBED.txt Am i reading that right? It has rain as part of the precip? nevermind...just saw will's post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas All, Eleanor, now if the Euro stays the same as12Z, what to do? I mean it will b Euro against the world and that includes Japanese and Korean,And Canadian. Take it into account and see what it says again at 6z. I am very excited but am going with the cautious optimism Will suggested. My location is still 36hrs away from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 1.33" of liquid for me on the GFS: http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_KBED.txt And rain with 26F surface and a below freezing column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 OK folks... I worked the long term desk when the 12Z model runs came in Friday. I saw the major change that the GFS did, as the others on shift did. We thought there might be a problem with such a shift. There was even early discussion on the interoffice IM system between Albany, Brookhaven and HPC. HPC confirmed the init problems, so we wanted to wait until we saw more data. We stayed the course, especially with the GGEM well S (as it had been for several runs, which lent to some confidence), and the EC somewhat offshore but a bit closer to the coast. The 18Z NAM went crazy as well. Again, I felt that there was still init issues back to the 12Z ingest. I had to look at the runs from here at home tonight to see what happens. I did have a feeling in the pit of my stomach that things would remain very interesting. Beyond my expectations. Not only did the NAM and GFS continue to slam eastern areas, the GGEM did its sudden switch and came close. OH MY! I can't recall seeing such major switches in model solutions in very short timeframes (12 hours, or even 6 hours). Someone mentioned the January 2005 storm. I worked the mid shifts leading into that storm. The models were VERY stable, and gave its signals for a major storm several days in advance. This potential storm is quite different leading into it, at least as the model progression has run over the last several days. Time will tell if this potential storm competes with Jan '05 for snow totals. I do agree with Will, though. Could still see another epic turnaround as we get closer to verify time. However, in my 25+ years experience, as we get close to verify time, it's tougher for quick changes in shorter time. Not unheard of, I guess, but might happen. Heck, we saw it happen on the 12Z runs, and now the 00Z GGEM. Will be very interesting to watch over the holiday weekend. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! --Turtle Thanks for the insight....Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 1.91" for TAN. And no way I am rain and 34F with this setup. http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_Ktan.txt Never say never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxologist Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ohh I thought that was a blend there...didn't realize just GFS. Yeah...its just using the GFS. The reason why the GFS is used is because we don't get enough grids from say...the EC...and the NAM is just not as reliable beyond F060. In a perfect world (more faster machines for the processing) we would run the software on both the GFS and NAM...but unfortunately it's just not possible right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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