BostonWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not sure if I will make it to the Euro tonight.. I might just save it for the morning and have another present to open! STAY UP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This will have to dubbed the Christmas Miracle storm if it turns into a monster at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not sure if I will make it to the Euro tonight.. I might just save it for the morning and have another present to open! Yeah, you should definitely crash. You got a big day ahead of you tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays folks. Hope everyone has good health going into 2011. Yes, Its after midnight, Happy Holidays to all, And hopefully a snowy Christmas......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This will have to dubbed the Christmas Miracle storm if it turns into a monster at the last second. Humor me.....analog events come to mind.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 STAY UP HES EXHAUSTED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This will have to dubbed the Christmas Miracle storm if it turns into a monster at the last second. What are your thoughts will? Do you still have to wait for euro or is it game on for sure now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 As am I. Its gonna be an epic run I want the live play by play! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am just as happy as everyone else at todays trends, But the skepticism remains as we are still quite a few hours from the event and need to see more consistency before getting fully onboard....... Hell we need to see the systems actually phase properly and the negative tilt to happen which isn't all that far off in real time. Will's expressed this concern quite well. I'm thinking >90%chance of a hit on this one for NYC north and that I might need to leave pretty early on sunday or maybe late saturday to not get stuck in the snow down in the mid atlantic (although the certainty of a hit in MA are a good bit less than up here in SNE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Humor me.....analog events come to mind.... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1989/us0223.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays folks. Hope everyone has good health going into 2011. Same to you Scott, It's been great to meet some of you in person this year and I loook forward to future GTG's. I'm still wary of this event without the EURO on board. These solutions are great and the charging West is great for me but I can almost write the posts we'll see when the Euro doesn't cave and ends up nailing the final, less impressive outcome. "They don't call it goofus for nothin'" Still, looks good to me at this juncture and wouldn't be surprised if it came West more. We'll see what the Euro says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yuor top analog at 60h. Per 00z GFS Your top analog at 72h. Per 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Gary Gray what are your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 In simple terms, They Fooked up and won't admit it......... I think only in that they overestimated the impact. They were major data/station errors, but not enough to effect the forecasts. Their models were on the right path at the time. Problems do CLEARLY exist as we approach h6 but they aren't likely enough to matter much. the models seems locked on this solution for multiple reasons. What are we waiting for on the EC? Me personally...for it to go way WNW, way ENE or come back to a BM hit. Equal opportunity on the three but it should be back to the BM of inside with a big low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the HPC seems to like the 0z NAM solution/21Z SREF...both of which destroy E MA and the Cape...sounds good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1989/us0223.php I'm still holding on to the Di Fax data on that storm.. :X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry X-mas all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Gary Gray what are your thoughts? Time is limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 AHHHH Why I love the CIPS page....A Beautiful Sight indeed!!!! Massive blizzard....but yea sometimes analogs are no good considering the messed up pattern we are in Yuor top analog at 60h. Per 00z GFS Your top analog at 72h. Per 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Santa work is done. This is our first "fun" Christmas, since our son is 2. Put the cookies out for Santa and carrots for the reindeer. Drinking a Bushmills 16 (early Xmas present to myself) and pondering the bombs. I think Monday is a work from home day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 just got home from a pre christmas party and all i can say is WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitemountainhiker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I normally don't post...but I have a question. Can someone explain to me how the HPC can "throw out" a model run this close to the actual event? This whole week has been confusing as hell to me, following the developments of this storm, and now that we are almost to the point of it beginning, they start throwing all these runs out cause of initialization errors, or feedback problems? God, sounds like a problem with an electric guitar, haha. It seems weird to me that a model run can be so bad, this close to the storm, that it needs to be chucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 What does Eleanor have to say. I see she's working on a post and is working the desk tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 looking at the 0z gfs, looks like southern ct, ri, and se mass are above 32 at the height of the storm...thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think only in that they overestimated the impact. They were major data/station errors, but not enough to effect the forecasts. Their models were on the right path at the time. Problems do CLEARLY exist as we approach h6 but they aren't likely enough to matter much. the models seems locked on this solution for multiple reasons. What are we waiting for on the EC? Me personally...for it to go way WNW, way ENE or come back to a BM hit. Equal opportunity on the three but it should be back to the BM of inside with a big low. Yes, It does looks like in the end, It had little effect for the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Geez Bob, you said I had a slim chance for 4" out here and yet those analogs suggest it could slightly better. Good thing your not an on air Met.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Geez Bob, you said I had a slim chance for 4" out here and yet those analogs suggest it could slightly better. Good thing your not an on air Met.lol That was 12 hours ago, which is an eternity these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow...AWESOME analogs there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No kidding...it common to see the GFS/EURO/NAM show one solution a bunch of days out...then deviate from that solution...then come back to it closer to the event I normally don't post...but I have a question. Can someone explain to me how the HPC can "throw out" a model run this close to the actual event? This whole week has been confusing as hell to me, following the developments of this storm, and now that we are almost to the point of it beginning, they start throwing all these runs out cause of initialization errors, or feedback problems? God, sounds like a problem with an electric guitar, haha. It seems weird to me that a model run can be so bad, this close to the storm, that it needs to be chucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think only in that they overestimated the impact. They were major data/station errors, but not enough to effect the forecasts. Their models were on the right path at the time. Problems do CLEARLY exist as we approach h6 but they aren't likely enough to matter much. the models seems locked on this solution for multiple reasons. What are we waiting for on the EC? Me personally...for it to go way WNW, way ENE or come back to a BM hit. Equal opportunity on the three but it should be back to the BM of inside with a big low. Fair enough, but I think that was a byproduct of their continuity fetish; they were biased toward staying the course imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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