ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Always cautious til the flakes are flying, but at this point it is impossible not to be forcibly thrown to the floor and taken by what is modeled. Oh I'm quite bullish, but I've been around long enough now that I've seen some pretty bad busts. I probably would be telling everyone 18" if this was 5 years ago, but I know better than that now. Did you see how fast the models changed today? You have to keep in mind there is no reason they can't change quickly back to a more "scraper" type solution, thats all. I think what they are seeing is real, and we can get pretty excited, but I don't think we should be totally oblivious to the difficulty the models have handling this pattern. This might be a 1 in 5-7 year type model debacle this close in for this big of a storm. Everyone always talks about the models busting but usually they don't change this much inside of 72-84 hours. This is like March 2001 territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Anybody have the link to the Ukie precip map like the one shown before.. I can't believe how far west that came... epic win for the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is it me, or is NCEP desperately grasping at straws. Yeah, how does that account for the Ukie and RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NCEP I agree with in pointing to a couple of likely issues: CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST... LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z NAM/15Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ARE SHOWING ISSUES WITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. THEIR SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS ARE 30-40 METERS TOO WEAK AT THE 500 HPA LEVEL BASED ON RAOB REPORTS FROM TEXAS. THE NAM DOES NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR 00Z. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. Reasons to wait for the euro. Although convection can pump up the downstream ridge too. However, if it goes bonkers with convection..that can impact the model. ULL over the gulf can produce good convection, so this will be interesting to follow. GEM looks like near BM..maybe just east?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 a closer look at the NAM. WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Northern and potentially arctic jet stream impulses are diving to the south currently over the Northern Plains. First initial northern stream impulse over the Lower Great Lakes is beginning to dampen out and weaken as its precip shield shrinks as modeled. This is opening the door for the ability for the models to pick up on the next two disturbances and the potential phasing to be modeled more correctly. Need some sleep now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Anybody have the link to the Ukie precip map like the one shown before.. I can't believe how far west that came... epic win for the GFS Nothing has verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is it me, or is NCEP desperately grasping at straws. And is it me or is there something wrong with everything basically? Either all the major models have some serious initialization/feedback issues to be worked out soon or the NCEP has had a rough day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is it me, or is NCEP desperately grasping at straws. No kidding, finding any minor feedback issue to conclude the entire run is defunct. It's especially odd that they continue to lend such credence to a model which is currently sitting alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Oh I'm quite bullish, but I've been around long enough now that I've seen some pretty bad busts. I probably would be telling everyone 18" if this was 5 years ago, but I know better than that now. Did you see how fast the models changed today? You have to keep in mind there is no reason they can't change quickly back to a more "scraper" type solution, thats all. I think what they are seeing is real, and we can get pretty excited, but I don't think we should be totally oblivious to the difficulty the models have handling this pattern. This might be a 1 in 5-7 year type model debacle this close in for this big of a storm. Everyone always talks about the models busting but usually they don't change this much inside of 72-84 hours. This is like March 2001 territory. Really, If everyone stops and thinks about it, This is really as good as it probably can get and there is only 1 way it can go from here........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GGEM looks like a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I don't want to make it sound like this will fail, but we have one good suite of a consensus and we're fairly close in, but we still need to be a bit cautious. Never forget: http://www.meteo.psu...1989/us0223.php One of the most disappointing storms of my life as a young grade school weenie. Man... how did that ever escape east with that HUGE monster trough to ride?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 00z GGEM is significantly west compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Really, If everyone stops and thinks about it, This is really as good as it probably can get and there is only 1 way it can go from here........ He summed it up well. It's easy to fall in love with these solutions, but we've seen the busts and look what took place today. I feel good for my area, but I have that uneasy feeling that I can't shake. Maybe that changes in an hour, but we still could see a last minute shift. This is one unstable pattern...or perhaps I should say unstable model solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yes, 00z GGEM is on board...low about 100 miles SE of Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GGEM crushes eastern half of SNE and at least several inches for the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Really, If everyone stops and thinks about it, This is really as good as it probably can get and there is only 1 way it can go from here........ I know, but we are getting to the point where we are only 1 day out right now... We will know tomorrow night where the low is forming and whether it will come up the coast or not... there is nothing to push it out east its either its negatively tilted and coming north or positively tilted and going east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm very sorry to hear this news, Jerry. You have my fullest condolences. thanks Don. YOu're a great guy and probably the most knowledgeable guy I've personally met without a red tag. It is kind of sad but he's gone. However, he is gone, one of the potentially great blizzards of my life may be coming. I'll pay my respects after the storm leaves and I can get out of Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 00z Ensm out to 24h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I don't want to make it sound like this will fail, but we have one good suite of a consensus and we're fairly close in, but we still need to be a bit cautious. Never forget: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1989/us0223.php One of the most disappointing storms of my life as a young grade school weenie. I was at NWS KORH then.. have all the data ( hand held) on that. ORF - ACY to HYA were in SN + and ORH got only light snow. Bob Copeland and Barry Burbank changed the forecast from 12 -16" to 2- 4" in just 6 hours morning to Noon! Maybe can share at a SNE GTG or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow ensembles are just se of Chatham..lol. Still seems like lots of spread here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GGEM crushes eastern half of SNE and at least several inches for the rest. Does the precip make it far north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Really, If everyone stops and thinks about it, This is really as good as it probably can get and there is only 1 way it can go from here........ Can actually get much better for you, me and some others on this board. I would have no problem with this storm tracking over Hyannis and then heading NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 He summed it up well. It's easy to fall in love with these solutions, but we've seen the busts and look what took place today. I feel good for my area, but I have that uneasy feeling that I can't shake. Maybe that changes in an hour, but we still could see a last minute shift. This is one unstable pattern...or perhaps I should say unstable model solutions. I am just as happy as everyone else at todays trends, But the skepticism remains as we are still quite a few hours from the event and need to see more consistency before getting fully onboard....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Can actually get much better for you, me and some others on this board. I would have no problem with this storm tracking over Hyannis and then heading NE. That's not very nice (for them, not for us ) Lot's of folks would not like a hugely further west final outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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