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December 26-27 Storm Threat


Baroclinic Zone

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Even the Nogaps....we have 100% agreement. Euro can kiss my azz...

Will's triple fouker rule...came west 3 times it's a plan.

This is not a good situaion, our first Condition Alpha on the new board.

Weatafella we talked about ambien the other night I'd recommend not taking it and observing weather. the words appear in 3d floating off the LCD. The pillow next to me looks just like yogi bear and I'm confident that many solid objects in the room are changing shapes at times. Why would any doctor give this as a sleep medicine, appears better for the austin powers croud.

back to weather.

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Will's triple fouker rule...came west 3 times it's a plan.

This is not a good situaion, our first Condition Alpha on the new board.

Weatafella we talked about ambien the other night I'd recommend not taking it and observing weather. the words appear in 3d floating off the LCD. The pillow next to me looks just like yogi bear and I'm confident that many solid objects in the room are changing shapes at times. Why would any doctor give this as a sleep medicine, appears better for the austin powers croud.

back to weather.

No ambien for me. One thing I do very well is sleep.....a life of sleep deprivation makes it easier...

:snowman::snowman: coming.

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Yeah there is essentially no chance BOS mixes even on the crazy amped up solutions like the GFS....the high location plus the low bombing so fast (and even trying to slightly elongate NE) keeps the ageostrophic flow almost due north...no chance to mix there, and probably not anywhere on the south shore...maybe Cape Cod.

I'm pretty surprised right now. Maybe I'll be last to the party, but it almost seems too good to be true. That said the UKIE and NOGAPS join the party. I'm looking forward to the euro, I mean this is nuts to see modeled. It just seems like nrn stream energy has trended stronger and stronger.

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I don't want to make it sound like this will fail, but we have one good suite of a consensus and we're fairly close in, but we still need to be a bit cautious.

Never forget:

http://www.meteo.psu...1989/us0223.php

One of the most disappointing storms of my life as a young grade school weenie.

You should have a beer with meteotrade over that. He has the same recollection that you do..lol.

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I don't want to make it sound like this will fail, but we have one good suite of a consensus and we're fairly close in, but we still need to be a bit cautious.

Never forget:

http://www.meteo.psu...1989/us0223.php

One of the most disappointing storms of my life as a young grade school weenie.

Always cautious til the flakes are flying, but at this point it is impossible not to be forcibly thrown to the floor and taken by what is modeled.

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NCEP I agree with in pointing to a couple of likely issues:

CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST...

LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z

NAM/15Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE

THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ARE SHOWING ISSUES

WITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. THEIR SOUTHERN

STREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS ARE 30-40 METERS TOO WEAK AT THE 500 HPA

LEVEL BASED ON RAOB REPORTS FROM TEXAS. THE NAM DOES NOT CAPTURE

THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS

ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEM

MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION AT

THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE

INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE

NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE

MEAN FORECASTS FOR 00Z. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD

DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST.

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NCEP I agree with in pointing to a couple of likely issues:

CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST...

LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z

NAM/15Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE

THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ARE SHOWING ISSUES

WITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. THEIR SOUTHERN

STREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS ARE 30-40 METERS TOO WEAK AT THE 500 HPA

LEVEL BASED ON RAOB REPORTS FROM TEXAS. THE NAM DOES NOT CAPTURE

THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS

ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEM

MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION AT

THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE

INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE

NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE

MEAN FORECASTS FOR 00Z. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD

DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST.

Is it me, or is NCEP desperately grasping at straws.

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