TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Man will this euro run be much anticipated?? LOL. Possibly the most exciting run in years... if you think about it. its euro vs everyone. real head scratcher if the trend doesnt continue to this euro run. this run could be key for our biggest snowstorm since 05'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 So HPC thing earlier was apparently incorrect? I missed about 8 hours of posts... And what Tip was saying a few minutes ago - Euro was getting bad data making it go too far east, might line up with GFS, NAM, Japanese model, Ukie, and just about everything else. Rev Kev should be perma banned until April I'm your new God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well a harrowing night. Close relative died...funeral Monday in Chicago. I've been given permission to miss it. My wife is the best...it's her side relative! I will fly there Monday morning (fat chance...lol..) to pay my respects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I was really feeling confident on this threat early in the week...felt there was a lot of decent agreement between the models and the Euro was so consistent with a monster hit. I pretty much wrote off the threat yesterday after the 12z runs...but felt a bit uneasy doing so. Still pretty surprised to see this come back with such a vengeance. Like Ryans take...says high impact storm for eastern 2/3 of CT...and can't rule out possibility of blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 So it would appear that we are seeing a solution closer to what the Euro was showing earlier this week, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WPRI 50% chance of 6" or more RI, 60% 6" or more SE MA; but few models showing 12"+, "don't want to jump on that yet" WJAR 3-6" coast, 6-12" PVD-TAN, 12"+ N RI-Boston ABC6 6"+ All stations mention good chance of mix to rain along coast/cape/islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM was posied to nail NE hard at 48 hours I think. Much more phased/west than the 12Z GGEM was. I didn't look at the 12Z RGEM. That's the shadow of Mt Tolland. I just took an ambien to knock myself out before the EC (hopefully or I'll eat seven boxes of cookies between now and then and not remember it in the morning). Want to see what the GGEM comes up with. Would LOVE to see a fuller explanation from NCEP. Seems to me they aren't saying it was data assimilation, more like model errors for whatever reason on the three. Strange that this problem is found at 12z and on the next run of the, Nogaps, UK, RGEM there is a huge trend NW. Problem found and fixed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Harvey Leonard is my new god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Harvey is tootin"""" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the 00z consensus is correct thus far at 00z, then a good chunk of SNE will see their biggest event since January 2005. However, caution goes to the wind with the ridiculous swings the models have been having. Just because we are looking good at 60 hours, doesn't mean we are locked in yet, but we're getting close. We are relying on a deep phase which can easily go wrong (see Feb 25, 1989) at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I was really feeling confident on this threat early in the week...felt there was a lot of decent agreement between the models and the Euro was so consistent with a monster hit. I pretty much wrote off the threat yesterday after the 12z runs...but felt a bit uneasy doing so. Still pretty surprised to see this come back with such a vengeance. Like Ryans take...says high impact storm for eastern 2/3 of CT...and can't rule out possibility of blizzard conditions. even though on 3 runs tonight the QPF jackpot was over W CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Harvey hits it hard, as he should knowing the man combined with what I already know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM was posied to nail NE hard at 48 hours I think. Much more phased/west than the 12Z GGEM was. I didn't look at the 12Z RGEM. Harv had his balls out, 6-12+ with jackpots, hes telling us to prepare now. Slow typing as with ambien it makes the screen appear like avatar in 3d for some reason, really trippy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the gfs verifies, this is a good spot for high pressure. Even warm model surface temps don't get above 32. I gotta see the euro for confirmation...this is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 epic, epic runs so far...ukmet trending so far west pretty much seals the deal...what a christmas miracle btw I think it was my mid-atlantic luck from last year that helped bring this storm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Nice to see the GFS with 1" of qpf back to ALB. ..Very fast drop off above ALB so far from a safe situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the 00z consensus is correct thus far at 00z, then a good chunk of SNE will see their biggest event since January 2005. However, caution goes to the wind with the ridiculous swings the models have been having. Just because we are looking good at 60 hours, doesn't mean we are locked in yet, but we're getting close. We are relying on a deep phase which can easily go wrong (see Feb 25, 1989) at the last second. Incredible if that happens, schools were closed for a week down here after that. Cancel Christmas, straight to Sunday Night please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I said a moderate to high impact event... someone in SNE sees blizzard conditions but not sure if it's SE Mass or Connecticut. Also not sure if this is a 6"+ event or an event "you'll remember at the end of the winter" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Even the Nogaps....we have 100% agreement. Euro can kiss my azz... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Harvey 6-12"+, maybe some jackpots much higher... Kid on WBZ barely 6"+ on the Cape... Where does this get vertically stacked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 even though on 3 runs tonight the QPF jackpot was over W CT? Well if the trends keep up, the yeah...this will be high impact for the whole state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the 00z consensus is correct thus far at 00z, then a good chunk of SNE will see their biggest event since January 2005. However, caution goes to the wind with the ridiculous swings the models have been having. Just because we are looking good at 60 hours, doesn't mean we are locked in yet, but we're getting close. We are relying on a deep phase which can easily go wrong (see Feb 25, 1989) at the last second. Safe to say 12z tomorrow is when we can start buying into modeled QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Harv had his balls out, 6-12+ with jackpots, hes telling us to prepare now. Slow typing as with ambien it makes the screen appear like avatar in 3d for some reason, really trippy. Ukie must look cool on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hope you don't get addicted to the stuff. I generally don't even drink...have a number of whinos in the family history and genetics probably could predispose me to that if i did. Snow is enough drug for me. Harv had his balls out, 6-12+ with jackpots, hes telling us to prepare now. Slow typing as with ambien it makes the screen appear like avatar in 3d for some reason, really trippy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Paul Kocin just updated his facebook with one word: "Wow!" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Even the Nogaps....we have 100% agreement. Euro can kiss my azz... 18z was good, this is great lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Pretty sure Harvey's 11:15 forecast was one of the most thrilling I've ever watched in my six years of truly being into weather... Awesome stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the gfs verifies, this is a good spot for high pressure. Even warm model surface temps don't get above 32. I gotta see the euro for confirmation...this is crazy. Yeah there is essentially no chance BOS mixes even on the crazy amped up solutions like the GFS....the high location plus the low bombing so fast (and even trying to slightly elongate NE) keeps the ageostrophic flow almost due north...no chance to mix there, and probably not anywhere on the south shore...maybe Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's been a while (dusts off Youtube)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the gfs verifies, this is a good spot for high pressure. Even warm model surface temps don't get above 32. I gotta see the euro for confirmation...this is crazy. you'd think the euro would almost have to come onboard given the Ukie now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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