December 26-27 Storm Threat

[mahk_webstah]

You get good deformation snows...

I fookin hope so. See that v in the qpf field from Brian and I down to Will? EAger to see totals

[SnowMan]

24" per the NAM.

Station ID: KTAN Lat:   41.87 Long:  -71.02                                                        
NAM Model Run:  0Z 25DEC 2010
 HR Valid 	2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis
               Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in. 	Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM
  0 12/25 00Z   27 	22 	322   	9    0.00  0.00    533    544   -3.0 -25.9 1014   0          CLR   	0.0   14.9
  3 12/25 03Z   25 	19 	331      10    0.00  0.00    532    544   -3.8 -24.9 1014   6   	265FEW280    0.0   15.1
  6 12/25 06Z   23 	19 	329   	8    0.00  0.00    532    543   -4.1 -24.0 1014  14   	221FEW244    0.0   14.9
  9 12/25 09Z   22 	18 	334   	8    0.00  0.00    531    544   -4.2 -24.2 1016   0          CLR   	0.0   15.1
 12 12/25 12Z   20 	17 	342   	6    0.00  0.00    531    543   -4.0 -24.0 1014  33   	236SCT289    0.0   15.1
 15 12/25 15Z   26 	21 	344   	4    0.00  0.00    531    543   -4.2 -23.1 1015  98   	182BKN297    0.0   15.1
 18 12/25 18Z   31 	23   	5   	3    0.00  0.00    531    543   -4.1 -23.0 1014  98   	133OVC239    0.0   15.1
 21 12/25 21Z   31 	27 	332   	1    0.00  0.00    530    542   -4.3 -24.3 1014 100   	043OVC199    0.0   14.9
 24 12/26 00Z   30 	26      42   	2    0.00  0.00    530    541   -4.0 -25.6 1014 100   	123OVC304    0.0   14.9
 27 12/26 03Z   29 	25      31   	1    0.00  0.00    529    541   -5.2 -25.3 1015 100   	099OVC280    0.0   14.9
 30 12/26 06Z   29 	27      19   	2    0.00  0.00    529    540   -5.8 -24.4 1014 100   	069OVC266    0.0   15.1
 33 12/26 09Z   29 	28      10   	4    0.00  0.00    530    540   -6.2 -24.0 1013 100   	049OVC253    0.0   15.0
 36 12/26 12Z   29 	29   	4   	5    0.00  0.00    530    541   -6.9 -24.2 1013 100   	000OVC279    0.0    5.9
 39 12/26 15Z   33 	32      46   	5    0.04  0.00    531    541   -7.2 -23.9 1013 100 -SN   000OVC265    0.4    1.7
 42 12/26 18Z   35 	33      45      11    0.04  0.00    533    541   -6.8 -22.5 1009 100 -SN   000OVC267    0.4   11.1
 45 12/26 21Z   32 	31      43      16    0.12  0.00    535    541   -6.4 -20.2 1006 100 -SN   000OVC281    1.2    0.6
 48 12/27 00Z   31 	30      28      20    0.20  0.00    538    539   -6.2 -16.2 1001 100 SN    000OVC256    2.0    0.3
 51 12/27 03Z   31 	31      30      24    0.48  0.00    538    534   -7.1 -19.7  995 100 SN    000OVC199    4.8    0.4
 54 12/27 06Z   32 	31      24      31    0.37  0.00    539    527   -5.1 -20.5  984 100 SN    001OVC250    3.9    0.3
 57 12/27 09Z   31 	30   	2      29    0.37  0.00    539    520   -5.7 -20.6  975 100 SN   	OVC262    3.8    0.2
 60 12/27 12Z   29 	27 	343      30    0.61  0.00    536    516   -7.1 -20.4  975 100 SN   	OVC273    6.1    0.3
 63 12/27 15Z   27 	25 	319      25    0.18  0.00    533    516   -8.3 -19.7  979 100 -SN      OVC232    1.8    0.9
 66 12/27 18Z   26 	22 	311      23    0.03  0.00    531    517   -8.5 -20.9  982 100   	001OVC271    0.0    6.2
 69 12/27 21Z   25 	19 	312      22    0.00  0.00    530    518   -7.1 -22.3  985 100   	029OVC270    0.0   14.9
 72 12/28 00Z   22 	15 	310      21    0.00  0.00    528    520   -6.6 -24.8  990 100   	041OVC070    0.0   15.1
 75 12/28 03Z   19 	11 	310      20    0.00  0.00    525    520   -5.6 -25.2  993  51   	215BKN218    0.0   15.1
 78 12/28 06Z   15      7 	308      19    0.00  0.00    522    518   -6.8 -26.9  995  27   	179SCT199    0.0   15.1
 81 12/28 09Z   14      6 	309      18    0.00  0.00    519    517   -7.1 -29.2  996   0          CLR   	0.0   15.1

84 12/28 12Z 13 5 311 17 0.00 0.00 518 518 -7.3 -29.4 999 0 CLR 0.0 15.1

where can i pull this for my area?

[weatherwiz]

So, if the Euro doesn't come west...do we take that as an outlier model? I mean to see virtually come west it would be hard to go against that but it's not too often you say throw out the euo

[dendrite]

You get good deformation snows...

And I don't think I'd guarantee the QPF plays out exactly like this either. There are two maxes...the 2nd where the redevelopment is. Someone will get a relatively "dead zone", but we'll have to see where that pans out.

[PineHillsWx]

Harvey Leonard seems to be on board based on his comments opening the news.

[CT Rain]

And I don't think I'd guarantee the QPF plays out exactly like this either. There are two maxes...the 2nd where the redevelopment is. Someone will get a relatively "dead zone", but we'll have to see where that pans out.

Odds are that's the Connecticut River Valley.

[mattmfm]

PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF 24/21Z SREF AND 25/00Z NAM SHOWS BOTH MODELSHAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND FARTHER EAST WITH THEIR TRACKS OF A SURFACELOW PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

Did I miss something? 21z SREFs trended west, didn't they?

[Mr. Windcredible!]

WOW Ryan!!! AWESOME!!!

Did he have much to say at the opening of the newscast? I'm tuned in for the full report!

[hooralph]

This is how the great ones are: a late and strong trend toasted the extreme solution.

[weathafella]

[CT Rain]

Harvey Leonard seems to be on board based on his comments opening the news.

It's hard not to be right now.

[weathafella]

PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF 24/21Z SREF AND 25/00Z NAM SHOWS BOTH MODELSHAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND FARTHER EAST WITH THEIR TRACKS OF A SURFACELOW PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

Did I miss something? 21z SREFs trended west, didn't they?

Likely a mistype.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Not quite sure what causes the pie slice of lower QPF on the GFS.

That's the shadow of Mt Tolland.

I just took an ambien to knock myself out before the EC (hopefully or I'll eat seven boxes of cookies between now and then and not remember it in the morning).

Want to see what the GGEM comes up with.

Would LOVE to see a fuller explanation from NCEP. Seems to me they aren't saying it was data assimilation, more like model errors for whatever reason on the three.

Strange that this problem is found at 12z and on the next run of the, Nogaps, UK, RGEM there is a huge trend NW. Problem found and fixed?

[CT Rain]

PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF 24/21Z SREF AND 25/00Z NAM SHOWS BOTH MODELSHAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND FARTHER EAST WITH THEIR TRACKS OF A SURFACELOW PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

Did I miss something? 21z SREFs trended west, didn't they?

Yeah I think they meant west.

[TalcottWx]

The hstoric ones never mix bos... sitting pretty.. waiting for euro tho...

[Typhoon Tip]

But in all seriousness...p-type issues for Mass coast?

Where? Cape Cod, wet snow, CC Canal and W snow

[weatherwiz]

Did he have much to say at the opening of the newscast? I'm tuned in for the full report!

He basically said that latest computer models have trended west with the storm and that he thinks it's coming.

[mattlacroix4]

PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF 24/21Z SREF AND 25/00Z NAM SHOWS BOTH MODELSHAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND FARTHER EAST WITH THEIR TRACKS OF A SURFACELOW PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

Did I miss something? 21z SREFs trended west, didn't they?

I think it was a typo

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Odds are that's the Connecticut River Valley.

Thanks Ryan, I was wondering who would say it first - lol.

At least N Valley is much tighter with elevation - not as worried here.

[DomNH]

Anyway, have a fantastic night and a fantastic Christmas everybody.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

It's hard not to be right now.

Harv was on board 6 hours ago. He pretty clearly discounted the discount of the GFS. He's old school and perfectly capabable of recognizing a pattern or tendency, he's the best of the best.

[SnowMan]

Where? Cape Cod, wet snow, CC Canal and W snow

I was more referring North of Boston

[CoastalWx]

This is crazy, wow. Gulf lows FTW??

[CoastalWx]

Man will this euro run be much anticipated?? LOL.

[MarkO]

The Euro relies on the assumption that the data the American's give them is accurate. If there are flaws in that data, they don't own responsibility.

So no, not a win because of an unfair playing field. The Euro was a sig hit at every run until the Americans might have fed that model garbage - my guess is the Euro will abruptly adjust toward this.

Are you saying what I think you're saying???

[tmagan]

So, if the Euro doesn't come west...do we take that as an outlier model? I mean to see virtually come west it would be hard to go against that but it's not too often you say throw out the euo

The UKMET coming west nearly seals the deal.

[ORH_wxman]

BOS wouldn't have ptype issues...it would be quite difficult for BOS to get ptype issues even on an amped up GFS solution because the ageostrophic wind component is very strong with the bombing low as far south as it is and a high to the NW. You'd probably have to go to the Cape to see any.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Harv was on board 6 hours ago. He pretty clearly discounted the discount of the GFS. He's old school and perfectly capabable of recognizing a pattern or tendency, he's the best of the best.

So HPC thing earlier was apparently incorrect? I missed about 8 hours of posts...

And what Tip was saying a few minutes ago - Euro was getting bad data making it go too far east, might line up with GFS, NAM, Japanese model, Ukie, and just about everything else.

Rev Kev should be perma banned until April

[40/70 Benchmark]

I was more referring North of Boston

If cc doesn't mix, it's a safe bet Danvers won't.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

According to both GFS and NAM 700mb moisture fields at 36 hours, we could be waking up on Sunday morning looking at visible satellite imagery and just say, "haven't we seen this before?" Just amazing. I would caution to see the 12z suite before going gung ho on this just yet, need more consistency.