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December 26-27 Storm Threat


Baroclinic Zone

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Yeah, but with a 500mb low cut-off near Charlotte, NC I think that's gotta be very favorable for NYC on northeast. And with the neg tilted trough that baby is going due north from there.

Well you see that kink to the east in the atlantic, that is what eventually produces its own 5h closed low on the nam and other earlier progs.

I was looking at this for clues for post-48...you can see all the best lift is still in SE MA but likely pivoting NW

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/770_100.gif

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I'm beginning to believe....

Kind of feels like the end of The Matrix when Neo decides to fight Agent Smith. The Euro is the agent in this case.

laugh.gif

I am starting to believe too....had given up mostly on this storm even though I was bullish in the long range, but the substantial west trends have been apparent all day. It's hard to argue with the RGEM/NAM/GFS all being so far west especially when the Euro ensembles had some individual members with a big snowstorm for coastal areas. I'm actually starting to think Cape Cod will change over to rain for part of the storm with the biggest amounts of snow near Boston and perhaps into SE CT. What do you think about this forecast, and what do you think about my chances in NYC metro?

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laugh.gif

I am starting to believe too....had given up mostly on this storm even though I was bullish in the long range, but the substantial west trends have been apparent all day. It's hard to argue with the RGEM/NAM/GFS all being so far west especially when the Euro ensembles had some individual members with a big snowstorm for coastal areas. I'm actually starting to think Cape Cod will change over to rain for part of the storm with the biggest amounts of snow near Boston and perhaps into SE CT. What do you think about this forecast, and what do you think about my chances in NYC metro?

Yes, if these newer progs are correct and we see the low track a bit inside the benchmark, then the best snows will be NW of the Cape probably in SE MA (NW of the Cape) up to Boston and NE MA where Ray is and RI...perhaps SE CT too.

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NCEP has released the NAM diagnostic, some errors yet again:

CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST...

LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z

NAM/15Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE

THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM IS SHOWING ISSUES WITH WHICH

MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. ITS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE

IN TEXAS IS TOO WEAK AND DOES NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION

IN EASTERN TEXAS...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS ALSO WEAK ALOFT BASED ON

THE 00Z RAOBS FROM TEXAS. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE

INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE

NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE

MEAN FORECASTS FOR 00Z. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD

DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THE DETERMINISTIC AND

ENSEMBLE SPREAD HAS SIGNIFICANT INCREASED SINCE THIS TIME

YESTERDAY...WITH THE 18Z GFS/18Z GEFS MEAN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE

OVERALL SPREAD AND THE 12Z CANADIAN AND A SIGNIFICANT PERCENTAGE

OF ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE EAST/QUICK SIDE DUE TO

GREATER INTERACTION WITH A VORTEX IN EASTERN CANADA. THE NAM HAS

TRENDED STRONGER ALOFT AND MORE WESTWARD AT THE SURFACE OVER ITS

PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED APART...WITH THE

ECMWF SHOWING A EAST TO SOUTHEAST TREND FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND

THE GFS TRENDING WEST. IN BOTH CASES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING

LONG TERM WAVERING...WITH THE GFS RETURNING TOWARDS ITS SOLUTIONS

FROM MONDAY THOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE EAST THAN SEEN ON ITS PRIOR

FIVE DAYS OF RUNS. THE SREF MEMBERS HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND SHIFTED

THE LOW MORE WESTERLY WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MEMBERS HAVE

TRENDED QUICKER AND MORE OFFSHORE. SINCE TRENDS ARE APART AND THE

GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ON THE STRONG/WEST SIDE OF THE

GUIDANCE...WHICH IS UNUSUAL...WILL MINIMIZE CHANGES TO CONTINUITY

AND SPLIT THE GUIDANCE DOWN THE MIDDLE...PREFERRING A 00Z NAM/12Z

SREF MEAN COMPROMISE.

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NCEP has released the NAM diagnostic, some errors yet again:

CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST...

LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z

NAM/15Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE

THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM IS SHOWING ISSUES WITH WHICH

MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. ITS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE

IN TEXAS IS TOO WEAK AND DOES NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION

IN EASTERN TEXAS...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS ALSO WEAK ALOFT BASED ON

THE 00Z RAOBS FROM TEXAS. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE

INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE

NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE

MEAN FORECASTS FOR 00Z. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD

DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THE DETERMINISTIC AND

ENSEMBLE SPREAD HAS SIGNIFICANT INCREASED SINCE THIS TIME

YESTERDAY...WITH THE 18Z GFS/18Z GEFS MEAN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE

OVERALL SPREAD AND THE 12Z CANADIAN AND A SIGNIFICANT PERCENTAGE

OF ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE EAST/QUICK SIDE DUE TO

GREATER INTERACTION WITH A VORTEX IN EASTERN CANADA. THE NAM HAS

TRENDED STRONGER ALOFT AND MORE WESTWARD AT THE SURFACE OVER ITS

PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED APART...WITH THE

ECMWF SHOWING A EAST TO SOUTHEAST TREND FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND

THE GFS TRENDING WEST. IN BOTH CASES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING

LONG TERM WAVERING...WITH THE GFS RETURNING TOWARDS ITS SOLUTIONS

FROM MONDAY THOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE EAST THAN SEEN ON ITS PRIOR

FIVE DAYS OF RUNS. THE SREF MEMBERS HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND SHIFTED

THE LOW MORE WESTERLY WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MEMBERS HAVE

TRENDED QUICKER AND MORE OFFSHORE. SINCE TRENDS ARE APART AND THE

GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ON THE STRONG/WEST SIDE OF THE

GUIDANCE...WHICH IS UNUSUAL...WILL MINIMIZE CHANGES TO CONTINUITY

AND SPLIT THE GUIDANCE DOWN THE MIDDLE...PREFERRING A 00Z NAM/12Z

SREF MEAN COMPROMISE.

Of course there were, anytime a run gives us great snow is had to fooked up.

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I'm just about as dumbfounded as everyone - the big hits were still there in the ensembles but it didnt look likely.

Watch the euro go back to it's ridiculous HECS that crushes the MA all the way up to Boston.

I'll be driving from NJ to DC on the 26th so it'll make a huge difference if the MA gets back in on this lol. Already told the GF and her fam that the most likely result is that this misses NJ and the MA, but left it open that it wasn't 100% certain lol.

The zulu times confuse me - anywhere I can go to get a handy conversion so I can get a better idea of the timing of everything?

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