weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah, but with a 500mb low cut-off near Charlotte, NC I think that's gotta be very favorable for NYC on northeast. And with the neg tilted trough that baby is going due north from there. Well you see that kink to the east in the atlantic, that is what eventually produces its own 5h closed low on the nam and other earlier progs. I was looking at this for clues for post-48...you can see all the best lift is still in SE MA but likely pivoting NW http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/770_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Okay---I'm not going to stay up. I'll catch up at 4:30. Good luck, and Merry Christmas, all (celebrants and non-celbrants alike). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm beginning to believe.... Kind of feels like the end of The Matrix when Neo decides to fight Agent Smith. The Euro is the agent in this case. I am starting to believe too....had given up mostly on this storm even though I was bullish in the long range, but the substantial west trends have been apparent all day. It's hard to argue with the RGEM/NAM/GFS all being so far west especially when the Euro ensembles had some individual members with a big snowstorm for coastal areas. I'm actually starting to think Cape Cod will change over to rain for part of the storm with the biggest amounts of snow near Boston and perhaps into SE CT. What do you think about this forecast, and what do you think about my chances in NYC metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS looks nice with both shortwaves (TX and northern Plains) for 00z initialization. Better than 18z GFS - 6 hr forecast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS looks nice with both shortwaves (TX and northern Plains) for 00z initialization. Better than 18z GFS - 6 hr forecast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am starting to believe too....had given up mostly on this storm even though I was bullish in the long range, but the substantial west trends have been apparent all day. It's hard to argue with the RGEM/NAM/GFS all being so far west especially when the Euro ensembles had some individual members with a big snowstorm for coastal areas. I'm actually starting to think Cape Cod will change over to rain for part of the storm with the biggest amounts of snow near Boston and perhaps into SE CT. What do you think about this forecast, and what do you think about my chances in NYC metro? Yes, if these newer progs are correct and we see the low track a bit inside the benchmark, then the best snows will be NW of the Cape probably in SE MA (NW of the Cape) up to Boston and NE MA where Ray is and RI...perhaps SE CT too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Watch the EURO congrat Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Alright this might seem a bit IMBY, but when discussing regions, what is Concord, MA considered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Alright this might seem a bit IMBY, but when discussing regions, what is Concord, MA considered? Ne quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NCEP has released the NAM diagnostic, some errors yet again: CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST... LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z NAM/15Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM IS SHOWING ISSUES WITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. ITS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS IS TOO WEAK AND DOES NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS ALSO WEAK ALOFT BASED ON THE 00Z RAOBS FROM TEXAS. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR 00Z. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD HAS SIGNIFICANT INCREASED SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH THE 18Z GFS/18Z GEFS MEAN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE OVERALL SPREAD AND THE 12Z CANADIAN AND A SIGNIFICANT PERCENTAGE OF ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE EAST/QUICK SIDE DUE TO GREATER INTERACTION WITH A VORTEX IN EASTERN CANADA. THE NAM HAS TRENDED STRONGER ALOFT AND MORE WESTWARD AT THE SURFACE OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED APART...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A EAST TO SOUTHEAST TREND FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE GFS TRENDING WEST. IN BOTH CASES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LONG TERM WAVERING...WITH THE GFS RETURNING TOWARDS ITS SOLUTIONS FROM MONDAY THOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE EAST THAN SEEN ON ITS PRIOR FIVE DAYS OF RUNS. THE SREF MEMBERS HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND SHIFTED THE LOW MORE WESTERLY WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER AND MORE OFFSHORE. SINCE TRENDS ARE APART AND THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ON THE STRONG/WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS UNUSUAL...WILL MINIMIZE CHANGES TO CONTINUITY AND SPLIT THE GUIDANCE DOWN THE MIDDLE...PREFERRING A 00Z NAM/12Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think the GFS is going to be a western bomb again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NCEP has released the NAM diagnostic, some errors yet again: CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST... LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z NAM/15Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM IS SHOWING ISSUES WITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. ITS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS IS TOO WEAK AND DOES NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS ALSO WEAK ALOFT BASED ON THE 00Z RAOBS FROM TEXAS. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR 00Z. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD HAS SIGNIFICANT INCREASED SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH THE 18Z GFS/18Z GEFS MEAN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE OVERALL SPREAD AND THE 12Z CANADIAN AND A SIGNIFICANT PERCENTAGE OF ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE EAST/QUICK SIDE DUE TO GREATER INTERACTION WITH A VORTEX IN EASTERN CANADA. THE NAM HAS TRENDED STRONGER ALOFT AND MORE WESTWARD AT THE SURFACE OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED APART...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A EAST TO SOUTHEAST TREND FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE GFS TRENDING WEST. IN BOTH CASES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LONG TERM WAVERING...WITH THE GFS RETURNING TOWARDS ITS SOLUTIONS FROM MONDAY THOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE EAST THAN SEEN ON ITS PRIOR FIVE DAYS OF RUNS. THE SREF MEMBERS HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND SHIFTED THE LOW MORE WESTERLY WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER AND MORE OFFSHORE. SINCE TRENDS ARE APART AND THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ON THE STRONG/WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS UNUSUAL...WILL MINIMIZE CHANGES TO CONTINUITY AND SPLIT THE GUIDANCE DOWN THE MIDDLE...PREFERRING A 00Z NAM/12Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE. Of course there were, anytime a run gives us great snow is had to fooked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Already digging more with the Northern stream at 12 HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM should not be effected by init issues right? It certainly wasn't at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Of course there were, anytime a run gives us great snow is had to fooked up. Maybe they need to call canada and tell them there models are to.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS going for an earlier phase, sharper trough, and more downstream ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM should not be effected by init issues right? It certainly wasn't at 12Z. correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm just about as dumbfounded as everyone - the big hits were still there in the ensembles but it didnt look likely. Watch the euro go back to it's ridiculous HECS that crushes the MA all the way up to Boston. I'll be driving from NJ to DC on the 26th so it'll make a huge difference if the MA gets back in on this lol. Already told the GF and her fam that the most likely result is that this misses NJ and the MA, but left it open that it wasn't 100% certain lol. The zulu times confuse me - anywhere I can go to get a handy conversion so I can get a better idea of the timing of everything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Doesn't look like any p type issue for us there now does it? It gon snow No, we would be all snow, maybe some pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think the GFS is going to be a western bomb again. Agreed, Its drilling for oil in the gulf......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS going for an earlier phase, sharper trough, and more downstream ridging. Unless it turns me to rain, it must have initialized incorrectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM should not be effected by init issues right? It certainly wasn't at 12Z. And are the SREFs still good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 looks like it mgiht even be west of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 looks like it mgiht even be west of 18z Ray may need a 7-day ban if he flips to rain during the height of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 PREFERRING A 00Z NAM/12Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE. I'm not really even understanding their logic anymore. There have been two SREF runs since 12z. Why would they out and out ignore 15z and 21z SREF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 correct What are you calling for at 11? I think I have to tune in for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 wow... just wow at the GFS. I can't believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I can't believe that look at 24...it's amazing...looks like the s/w might try to go negative by 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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