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December 26-27 Storm Threat


Baroclinic Zone

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My family will hate me tomorrow...

Any word from nzucchini on this? Interested to see what the Boston media mets have to say

I'd certainly rather do this than hang out with my family :lol:

It's always so boring and everyone getting drunk. I'll do that on New Years and when there are storms on the horizon, winter or severe I prefer not to be away from the computer for extended periods of time.

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My family will hate me tomorrow...

Any word from nzucchini on this? Interested to see what the Boston media mets have to say

LOL...is that my new name?

I think the storm is probably going to be pretty far west given the concrete trend towards a stronger shortwave (numerous severe t-storms in Texas today) and the model trend towards tightening up the trough with more digging. Of course, I live north of NYC so I'm hoping something like the GFS verifies. The 21z SREF came significantly farther west of the 15z run, always a good sign, and the 0z NAM deals BOS an epic blizzard with three feet of snow and powerful winds. Even the ECM ENS had many members that were quite a bit farther west than the OP and gave the coastline a very big snowfall, so I'm optimistic that there's been a solid move to the west. This has seriously been one of the toughest systems to forecast, though. I was originally bullish, backed off when the models had all shifted out-to-sea, and am not starting to get confident again on at least advisory snows for NYC and warning criteria for Boston.

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I'd certainly rather do this than hang out with my family :lol:

It's always so boring and everyone getting drunk. I'll do that on New Years and when there are storms on the horizon, winter or severe I prefer not to be away from the computer for extended periods of time.

come on.. stick to Model Discussion.

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RGEM is definitely west of the NAM. Blizzard conditions back to CT.

Its hard to say how much qpf it would throw back west...I think it would look a little better westward than the NAM, but that 5h is ripping a hole in the atmosphere northeastward.

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At 36 hrs the Christmas Blizzard of 2010 is down to about 998 off the coast of the carolinas on the RGEM. Trough is already getting ready to/going negative, heavy heavy expectations.

The earlier comments from Will and Ryan indicated that if we wanted things to track west we'd wnat them to close off sooner/further south than the NAM (VA). Any thoughts on that?

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Its hard to say how much qpf it would throw back west...I think it would look a little better westward than the NAM, but that 5h is ripping a hole in the atmosphere northeastward.

Yeah, but with a 500mb low cut-off near Charlotte, NC I think that's gotta be very favorable for NYC on northeast. And with the neg tilted trough that baby is going due north from there.

It's also significantly stronger with the sfc low than the NAM at that latitude so I imagine it gets the CCB going a lot faster.

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RGEM probably is close to coastal ptype problems... that thing is close to a canal cutter

It's a lot stronger than the NAM. Normal bias of the RGEM to wrap up lows in the NW Atlantic or trend? or was the NAM out to lunch? LOL who cares I'll watch the GFS and go to bed. One thing we know for sure is it will change 5-6 more times before onset.

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