Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 As DT would say Condition ALPHA. RGEM is on the train..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 My family will hate me tomorrow... Any word from nzucchini on this? Interested to see what the Boston media mets have to say I'd certainly rather do this than hang out with my family It's always so boring and everyone getting drunk. I'll do that on New Years and when there are storms on the horizon, winter or severe I prefer not to be away from the computer for extended periods of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Doesn't look like any p type issue for us there now does it? It gon snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 As DT would say Condition ALPHA. RGEM is on the train..... Good lord....I'm afraid to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 As DT would say Condition ALPHA. RGEM is on the train..... Thats 2..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Where's Ginyx and Jerry...it would be good to see their comments. They may have posted they would be out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 As DT would say Condition ALPHA. RGEM is on the train..... Outstanding. Where does it track it in relation to the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 At 36 hrs the Christmas Blizzard of 2010 is down to about 998 off the coast of the carolinas on the RGEM. Trough is already getting ready to/going negative, heavy heavy expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 My family will hate me tomorrow... Any word from nzucchini on this? Interested to see what the Boston media mets have to say LOL...is that my new name? I think the storm is probably going to be pretty far west given the concrete trend towards a stronger shortwave (numerous severe t-storms in Texas today) and the model trend towards tightening up the trough with more digging. Of course, I live north of NYC so I'm hoping something like the GFS verifies. The 21z SREF came significantly farther west of the 15z run, always a good sign, and the 0z NAM deals BOS an epic blizzard with three feet of snow and powerful winds. Even the ECM ENS had many members that were quite a bit farther west than the OP and gave the coastline a very big snowfall, so I'm optimistic that there's been a solid move to the west. This has seriously been one of the toughest systems to forecast, though. I was originally bullish, backed off when the models had all shifted out-to-sea, and am not starting to get confident again on at least advisory snows for NYC and warning criteria for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Pretty much IMBY. I'm not good at reading those. Is that implying any precip type issues? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM is probably going to look like the NAM...it might be the first foreign model officially on board if you do not count the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Good lord....I'm afraid to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 At 36 hrs the Christmas Blizzard of 2010 is down to about 998 off the coast of the carolinas on the RGEM. Trough is already getting ready to/going negative, heavy heavy expectations. My goose bumps are closing off..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'd certainly rather do this than hang out with my family It's always so boring and everyone getting drunk. I'll do that on New Years and when there are storms on the horizon, winter or severe I prefer not to be away from the computer for extended periods of time. come on.. stick to Model Discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 At 48hrs the great christmas bllizzard of 2010 is 979mb maybe heading at or just west of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Have to say this is too good to be true! Let's hope the gfs and ec follow the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM is 979... looks like it's about to pass inside the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 holy crap at the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Good lord....I'm afraid to believe. I'm beginning to believe.... Kind of feels like the end of The Matrix when Neo decides to fight Agent Smith. The Euro is the agent in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I meant to say east not west....be around the BM...5h low is closed off just to its west and it's moving so how much further can it get on this prog who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM is definitely west of the NAM. Blizzard conditions back to CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thats 2..... If we count those last SREFs we can make it 3. Fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm beginning to believe.... Kind of feels like the end of The Matrix when Neo decides to fight Agent Smith. The Euro is the agent in this case. I feel like I did when Edgar Renteria grounded the ball back to Foukle......I was just waiting for him to throw it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM probably is close to coastal ptype problems... that thing is close to a canal cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM is definitely west of the NAM. Blizzard conditions back to CT. Its hard to say how much qpf it would throw back west...I think it would look a little better westward than the NAM, but that 5h is ripping a hole in the atmosphere northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 At 36 hrs the Christmas Blizzard of 2010 is down to about 998 off the coast of the carolinas on the RGEM. Trough is already getting ready to/going negative, heavy heavy expectations. The earlier comments from Will and Ryan indicated that if we wanted things to track west we'd wnat them to close off sooner/further south than the NAM (VA). Any thoughts on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow...that is pretty significant seeing the RGEM coming this far west, and even west enough to cause p-type issues. This opens the door open a little wider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Its hard to say how much qpf it would throw back west...I think it would look a little better westward than the NAM, but that 5h is ripping a hole in the atmosphere northeastward. Yeah, but with a 500mb low cut-off near Charlotte, NC I think that's gotta be very favorable for NYC on northeast. And with the neg tilted trough that baby is going due north from there. It's also significantly stronger with the sfc low than the NAM at that latitude so I imagine it gets the CCB going a lot faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM probably is close to coastal ptype problems... that thing is close to a canal cutter It's a lot stronger than the NAM. Normal bias of the RGEM to wrap up lows in the NW Atlantic or trend? or was the NAM out to lunch? LOL who cares I'll watch the GFS and go to bed. One thing we know for sure is it will change 5-6 more times before onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Its hard to say how much qpf it would throw back west...I think it would look a little better westward than the NAM, but that 5h is ripping a hole in the atmosphere northeastward. Hopefully it's a sh*tload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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