weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Nobody should be taking this solution seriously. Yeah agreed...although it can't totally be discounted just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well this may be answered in a few hours. This is interesting to say the least. I honestly don't remember something quite like this in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Congrats Bob and Scooter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_0z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You might be right... but GGEM/UK/Euro is a hard combination to ignore. I don't really know. All I know is I'm going home in 90 minutes and cracking open a big bottle of wine. I am allready throwin them down hard, LOL getting myself ready for heartbreak. Seriously who knows how this will turn out but Merry Christmas to all of you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Congrats Bob and Scooter I'd be happy with that. But I'm still not convinced I should expect more than a dusting to a couple inches. But I am emailing santa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 B But we don't care if they mix. Oh, I mean that would be terrible. Just got back from fam in RI to read all this... OMG, what a day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Two more days of heavy, heavy computer sitting. Whatever happens Tuesday might be a sleep all day type of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM will be well west of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Congrats Bob and Scooter There's the clown map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Congrats Bob and Scooter God is that a sharp gradient nw of boston. yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I agree with you. I would also like to see other model support. Hopefully, 0z will deliver support that backs up the bigger storm idea. No matter how this plays out, it will be an incredible chapter in the history of modeling. Save this thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Any predictions for the Euro? Will it latch onto the NAM or spit in its face? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well this may be answered in a few hours. This is interesting to say the least. NCEP could take issue with the s/w and texas and the lack of continuity yet somehow it ends up with the same result but will they dare trash their own models twice? Tough tough situation. RUC and analysis at 0z does show the NAM was a little off downstairs, but again.....minor issues probably don't equal a big change in the result. If you guys noticed on the 5h, it's partially the tight spiral north of MN that goes ballistic at 30 hours as it merges with another s/w that really helps us. A s/w west of Hudsons now dives south at a much faster rate than that s/w kind of meandering in the flow, they come together and boom at 36 hours over Iowa. Could there be a problem way up in Canada who knows, who cares. EDIT the other big change is last night the NAM had a s/w strongly crashing into teh bottom of the ridge out west...it's a weak little thing now. That was a bonafide model miscue I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 There's the clown map! You can give kev the keys to the bus, But DO NOT let him start another thread........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Christmas is basically cancelled at this point. No way is anyone here gonna care...unless there a new sports car with a bow on it in the driveway. Gotta get the EC on board. and fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You might be right... but GGEM/UK/Euro is a hard combination to ignore. I don't really know. All I know is I'm going home in 90 minutes and cracking open a big bottle of wine. that's the spirit(no pun intended) but seriously, if the 500 low is lagging won't that tug the surface low west or slow it until it closes thus increasing the QPF field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Christmas is basically cancelled at this point. No way is anyone here gonna care...unless there a new sports car with a bow on it in the driveway. Gotta get the EC on board. and fast. I'm probably just waking up around midday tomorrow to go over and have Christmas dinner and then be back by the 00z models, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Any predictions for the Euro? Will it latch onto the NAM or spit in its face? If there are no significant ingest errors, yes. Otherwise, the Euro either takes a back seat, or proves yet again that there is something intrinsically wrong with the American process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM will be well west of 12z. I agree. S/w is dropping in further s/w in the MS Valley and the gulf s/w isn't as far south as all the earlier CMC runs. Very similar to the NAM. Bingo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 New from BOX... I think they mean "west" .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS * POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. * DRY AND MODERATING CONDITIONS FORECAST BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF 24/21Z SREF AND 25/00Z NAM SHOWS BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND FARTHER EAST WITH THEIR TRACKS OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH MODELS NOW TAKE THIS LOW PRESSURE EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W. SUCH A TRACK WOULD STILL LEAVE PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA AND RI VULNERABLE TO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL REQUIRE FURTHER ANALYSIS AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT IS VERY TIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR. OF NOTE...HPC FORECASTERS INFORMED US THAT THERE WERE MAJOR INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS INGESTED INTO BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 143 PM FOR DETAILS. IT IS MORE THAN LIKELY THAT THIS CAUSED SOLUTION ERRORS...NAMELY ON THE STRENGTH AND ESPECIALLY THE TRACK OF LOW PRES WORKING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS NOTED EARLIER... THE ONE THING SEEN THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Christmas is basically cancelled at this point. No way is anyone here gonna care...unless there a new sports car with a bow on it in the driveway. Gotta get the EC on board. and fast. You guys and your white chitmass - who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The only place I'll be tomorrow is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 New from BOX... I think they mean "west" Get Joe or Eleanor on the horn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 New from BOX... I think they mean "west" .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS * POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. * DRY AND MODERATING CONDITIONS FORECAST BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF 24/21Z SREF AND 25/00Z NAM SHOWS BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND FARTHER EAST WITH THEIR TRACKS OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH MODELS NOW TAKE THIS LOW PRESSURE EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W. SUCH A TRACK WOULD STILL LEAVE PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA AND RI VULNERABLE TO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL REQUIRE FURTHER ANALYSIS AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT IS VERY TIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR. OF NOTE...HPC FORECASTERS INFORMED US THAT THERE WERE MAJOR INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS INGESTED INTO BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 143 PM FOR DETAILS. IT IS MORE THAN LIKELY THAT THIS CAUSED SOLUTION ERRORS...NAMELY ON THE STRENGTH AND ESPECIALLY THE TRACK OF LOW PRES WORKING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS NOTED EARLIER... THE ONE THING SEEN THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND GFS. You know, I have been hearing the phrase "lack of run-to-run continuity" for yeard, and although consistency is important, it strikes me as rare that even the most modern models are even capable of being consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The only place I'll be tomorrow is here. My family will hate me tomorrow... Any word from nzucchini on this? Interested to see what the Boston media mets have to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Get Joe or Eleanor on the horn! They're watching Curious George reruns... I think the monkey is messing with the data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Where is that, Bob? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Where is that, Bob? Pretty much IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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