CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I thought the NAM was slightly more impressive with the phase... It seems kind of chintzy with qpf on the west side relative to what the GFS would show with that track probably. But .25" here is 1000% more than the 12Z run had. Could it still be the bad data? No that ship has sailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I just wish this was the Euro doing this and not the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 New model diagnostic discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Oh yeah agreed. I could see the GFS style stall off Long Island... or something like the NAM shows with it plowing northeast. I still think this run is suspect. I really can't go against the UK/GGEM/Euro (op and ensemble) consensus Agreed, talking to a few people on facebook who are all excited but I told them until I see some support from the global models I'm taking this with caution...this certainly has led me to keep all options fully open but as of now I'll continue to side with the globals...tonight's global runs are going to be HUGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I wobbled like the EC ensembles a little bit, just didn't want to see a miss east but said I called the NCEP bluff although I know it wasn't anything of that sort. They believed what they said and in reality we are all still going to want to see one non-home grown model delivering a big hit that isn't the JMA. I agree,the post mortem either way will be interesting. One trend I've always noticed in american model guidance is that even modest changes tend NOT to have the effect one would think. Look at tonight, the s/w moved hundreds of miles from the 18z and yet the MSLP is really not much different. So maybe NCEP was right in noting errors - it appears at 0z they had valid concerns, the model did initialize with some timing/strength differences, but it appears they were kind of irrelevant to the physics of the model. I said it on the other thread as someone who will watch a storm drop a dusting on ACK because I find it entertaining....most of the time the changes we saw in tonights 0z init is the difference between 6" and 12", not 6" and sunshine. I agree with you. I would also like to see other model support. Hopefully, 0z will deliver support that backs up the bigger storm idea. No matter how this plays out, it will be an incredible chapter in the history of modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Also, impressive duration. A solid 24 hour system, late afternoon Sunday through the day Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I just wish this was the Euro doing this and not the NAM Violently Agree....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Oh yeah I could see that too...I wasnt saying it couldn't get west of where it shows it now. I was mostly saying that if this closes off over VA or something, you don't see it trying to rip up the HV or CT Valley. Will--aplogies-- I misquoted you in a post re: this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 decent hit for boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No that ship has sailed. Not only did it sail but it sank! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The NAM is attempting a coup over the ECM and the supposed "error" of the 12z.... With the GFS soon to follow. It'll be America vs. Europe and we may get hurt again. What a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If I were to start driving to NYC at about 10 AM on Sunday morning, do you think I would encounter any problems. Or could I make it there alright? This sounds like an SAT question......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well I hope you finally get a big dump of snow For me its the difference between flurries and advisory level snows... But still lots of fun to watch evolve. Not only did it sail but it sank! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 is the storm done even for nne with that nam 15z qpf map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Need to see the rest of the 0zs (read: Euro needs to come on board before I'm doing naked cartwheels down Monument Square.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The RGEM might be useful to take a look at ....see if any international model will jump on board. Well I hope you finally get a big dump of snow For me its the difference between flurries and advisory level snows... But still lots of fun to watch evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 What in the sam hell is going on. I injected too much ju ju into the thread this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 is the storm done even for nne with that nam 15z qpf map? Yeah there's honestly 40 miles between 2' and 6" on this run.. but there should be an awesome deform. band with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeVries Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm not buying this yet. NAM... One way or another I'm driving out of Boston on Monday morning. I'll take pictures of any carnage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well I hope you finally get a big dump of snow For me its the difference between flurries and advisory level snows... But still lots of fun to watch evolve. It would certainly be nice! It's certainly a challenging forecast for CT...Global models give us nothing at all while American models give us basically warning criteria. Tough, tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looking good on this run for us up here. Let's hope others come in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 B I think this is the best solution to keep the Cape all snow and giving us warning criteria. Further east, we miss the qpf (though we might make up lower qpf even topogrpahical enahncement and hpefully fluff factor). Further west, they would be having some mixing issues. Will's comment suggests that this might be as far west as it can get (at least based on the NAM scenario, I imagine). If that's the case, we best hope it holds! But we don't care if they mix. Oh, I mean that would be terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looking good on this run for us up here. Let's hope others come in line. Yeah, We now know 12z was not a hiccup so far........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The RGEM might be useful to take a look at ....see if any international model will jump on board. I know the 18z RGEM bumped west but haven't seen the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I just wish this was the Euro doing this and not the NAM I'm leaning 75% to the NAM/GFS at this point. I hate going against the Euro but most of the differences between the 12z runs were apparent by 12 hours into the run. The 18z and 00z runs thus far have confirmed the GFS's 12hr forecast and the 18z NAM. In fact, I think most of the differences were apparent at initialization at 12z. I think HPC actually was onto something.. the GFS WAS initializing very different from the other models and this was leading to the extreme solution. However, I think what they were wrong about, is that the GFS was initializing incorrectly. It was actually closer (IMO) than the other models.. the 18z NAM picked up on it and corrected, and is now holding serve. NAM/GFS might be a little extreme, but I strongly believe the Euro will come west significantly from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I injected too much ju ju into the thread this am. We appreciate that, Bob. Glad you took the intiiative. Of course, any more juju and you'll be mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcont...;fcast=Loop+All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Nobody should be taking this solution seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm leaning 75% to the NAM/GFS at this point. I hate going against the Euro but most of the differences between the 12z runs were apparent by 12 hours into the run. The 18z and 00z runs thus far have confirmed the GFS's 12hr forecast and the 18z NAM. In fact, I think most of the differences were apparent at initialization at 12z. I think HPC actually was onto something.. the GFS WAS initializing very different from the other models and this was leading to the extreme solution. However, I think what they were wrong about, is that the GFS was initializing incorrectly. It was actually closer (IMO) than the other models.. the 18z NAM picked up on it and corrected, and is now holding serve. NAM/GFS might be a little extreme, but I strongly believe the Euro will come west significantly from 12z. You might be right... but GGEM/UK/Euro is a hard combination to ignore. I don't really know. All I know is I'm going home in 90 minutes and cracking open a big bottle of wine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Why we should stray or should not stray. Well this may be answered in a few hours. This is interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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