Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 what do you make of temps for you and I, at first glance I see no problems? If you look closely you'll see at 57h vs 63 this run is further se, ncep may throw it out...I'm joking... I was bailing later in the day, but this one just seemed funny. Pscyhed myself out...if the GFS is still west and the others don't trend away not sure I care what the EC says. I gotta imagine there is some contamination in there. the 0c line kisses the outer Cape and Islands. This is just nuts. The NAM just blew a white load of about 30" of snow on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What is the projected timing of onset of precip into BDL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Its initially west but then ends up just E of 18z later on...the best PVA and height falls are northeast which keeps the low from really ripping back west. That will probably end up being the mechanism that keeps this low from ever getting ridiculously far west. That 5h low is just like a backhoe once it gets over the ocean and keeps plowing its way NNE. Yes, but if this "type" of solution is right I could see the 500mb low closing off earlier over like VA or something and at least initially bringing this west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not until the entire 00z suite of models shows this. Ok. Just happy to know your pulling for me.Hoping you don't end up with mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's too far east for us to cash in with blockbuster totals but it held serve from 18z. Yeah we won't get jackpot totals but I would think we'd certainly see warning criteria snowfalls...QPF maps look like they are around .75''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 IMO, the 0z runs, if they are reasonably similar to the disputed 12z and 18z ones will largely shatter the earlier data issue hypothesis. Already, the NAM has more than held serve. Even if the 0z runs debunk the earlier noted hypothesis, that it was suggested should not be too surprising. If a model suddenly takes a position that is extreme and markedly different from most of the other guidance, the first hypothesis is probably that some kind of data assimiliation/initialization led to the outcome. If it didn't, then there is the much more discomfiting notion that some model or models might contain a weakness that ultimately led to a disastrous short-term error (which model or gruop of models wouldn't be known until the event has occurred). I wobbled like the EC ensembles a little bit, just didn't want to see a miss east but said I called the NCEP bluff although I know it wasn't anything of that sort. They believed what they said and in reality we are all still going to want to see one non-home grown model delivering a big hit that isn't the JMA. I agree,the post mortem either way will be interesting. One trend I've always noticed in american model guidance is that even modest changes tend NOT to have the effect one would think. Look at tonight, the s/w moved hundreds of miles from the 18z and yet the MSLP is really not much different. So maybe NCEP was right in noting errors - it appears at 0z they had valid concerns, the model did initialize with some timing/strength differences, but it appears they were kind of irrelevant to the physics of the model. I said it on the other thread as someone who will watch a storm drop a dusting on ACK because I find it entertaining....most of the time the changes we saw in tonights 0z init is the difference between 6" and 12", not 6" and sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just walked in to see the 21z SREF and the NAM. So much for initialization errors. Now the model output may be just flat out BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 New model diagnostic discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yes, but if this "type" of solution is right I could see the 500mb low closing off earlier over like VA or something and at least initially bringing this west a bit. Oh yeah I could see that too...I wasnt saying it couldn't get west of where it shows it now. I was mostly saying that if this closes off over VA or something, you don't see it trying to rip up the HV or CT Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ok. Just happy to know your pulling for me.Hoping you don't end up with mixing issues. I'm always pulling for the snowiest route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I gotta imagine there is some contamination in there. the 0c line kisses the outer Cape and Islands. This is just nuts. The NAM just blew a white load of about 30" of snow on me. Common sense with that track I kind of have to mix/change here unless the storm is really moving due north or almost NNW. Oddly it looks okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not a whole lot different than the 18z NAM in the end. First american model to survive the 00z RAOBs. My emphasis exactly! Although, I thought that error argument was over rout and said so earlier... but it is what it is. In fact, if you re-read that error idea, it was based on 'not in the 00z ECM' - wow, they really care about that model output more than the initialization? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 New model diagnostic discussion :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Oh yeah I could see that too...I wasnt saying it couldn't get west of where it shows it now. I was mostly saying that if this closes off over VA or something, you don't see it trying to rip up the HV or CT Valley. Oh yeah agreed. I could see the GFS style stall off Long Island... or something like the NAM shows with it plowing northeast. I still think this run is suspect. I really can't go against the UK/GGEM/Euro (op and ensemble) consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What is the projected timing of onset of precip into BDL? might get some light flurries into the area as early as 2-4 PM...but heavier stuff wouldn't come until later in the evening...if this even happens for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 In the end it goes a touch further east than the 18z NAM when heading near the Cape. wow.. I'm good see my earlier post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well this will certainly make tonight's 0z GFS run that much more interesting...if the GFS holds serve as well this will make things even more fun lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's too far east for us to cash in with blockbuster totals but it held serve from 18z. Congrats, Everyone! Even up here, I'm cusping the .50 line by 66z. Nice change from what I came down to this morning. Get the snowblowers checked in eastern areas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Oh yeah agreed. I could see the GFS style stall off Long Island... or something like the NAM shows with it plowing northeast. I still think this run is suspect. I really can't go against the UK/GGEM/Euro (op and ensemble) consensus why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Will, do you see the precip just halting like that on hour 60? There is going to be a very fine line here between a 12-18 and 3 inches... Any tick east and most of us are screwed IMO The NAM did come east a tad tonight, and that is not a good sign with plenty of time left still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLove Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If I were to start driving to NYC at about 10 AM on Sunday morning, do you think I would encounter any problems. Or could I make it there alright? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is amazing...i have no other words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 New model diagnostic discussion HA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What in the sam hell is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What in the sam hell is going on. I think we should ban Kevin from the board. Look at what happens when he doesn't post all day!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ok. Just happy to know your pulling for me.Hoping you don't end up with mixing issues. I think this is the best solution to keep the Cape all snow and giving us warning criteria. Further east, we miss the qpf (though we might make up lower qpf even topogrpahical enahncement and hpefully fluff factor). Further west, they would be having some mixing issues. Will's comment suggests that this might be as far west as it can get (at least based on the NAM scenario, I imagine). If that's the case, we best hope it holds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I thought the NAM was slightly more impressive with the phase... It seems kind of chintzy with qpf on the west side relative to what the GFS would show with that track probably. But .25" here is 1000% more than the 12Z run had. Could it still be the bad data? Yes, but if this "type" of solution is right I could see the 500mb low closing off earlier over like VA or something and at least initially bringing this west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What in the sam hell is going on. The NAM is attempting a coup over the ECM and the supposed "error" of the 12z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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