Kbosch Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well it will miss DC this run but its not missing CT. I was gonna say, even I can see we're all gonna be destroyed up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 The 00z NAM is going to look pretty amazing for SNE as a whole. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 OK - I don't want to hear ANYTHING about "oh the 12z GFS and NAM were ONLY good because of the bad data put into them" anymore. The 00z NMA is if Anything, West of 18z!! We'rrrrrrrRRRRRRE On!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is an insane bomb on this run guys and ladies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The cape might actually sink under the weight of all the snow LOL..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 48 hrs, look out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is an insane bomb on this run guys and ladies. Not a whole lot different than the 18z NAM in the end. First american model to survive the 00z RAOBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well now I doubt HPC's analysis even more... I could not for the life of me figure out what they were looking at to discount the GFS/NAM. Looks like they were probably wrong. If it misses now it's because the NAM is a POS not b/c of init. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 OK - I don't want to hear ANYTHING about "oh the 12z GFS and NAM were ONLY good because of the bad data put into them" anymore. The 00z NMA is if Anything, West of 18z!! We'rrrrrrrRRRRRRE On!! we are far from on, we only have 1 member of the 0z suite in tonight. We have the euro and uk off boat, dont get excited yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Nice sucker there. It looks like it's got an incredibly tight qpf shield. Perhpas that's why the BDL bufkit nubmers were so low??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not a whole lot different than the 18z NAM in the end. First american model to survive the 00z RAOBs. Fingers crossed, toes crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Can we just skip Christmas and go straight to Sunday night please? I know it's early, but any idea on any numbers or ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not a whole lot different than the 18z NAM in the end. First american model to survive the 00z RAOBs. But not the model diagnostic discussion! Kind of curious that it can handle the s/w in the gulf so much different and yet still have this bomb. Soooo....do we stll go with the EC and EC ensembles at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not a whole lot different than the 18z NAM in the end. First american model to survive the 00z RAOBs. The placement of the low is a little further west though, and looks more organized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Agreed. Are my slim chances getting any fatter bro'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Can we just skip Christmas and go straight to Sunday night please? I know it's early, but any idea on any numbers or ratios? its going to be big but dont worry about qpf and ratios yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The placement of the low is a little further west though, and looks more organized In the end it goes a touch further east than the 18z NAM when heading near the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Closes off JUST south of LI at 54...perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is my slim weenie getting any fatter bro'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Are my slim chances getting any fatter bro'? Not until the entire 00z suite of models shows this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 what do you make of temps for you and I, at first glance I see no problems? If you look closely you'll see at 57h vs 63 this run is further se, ncep may throw it out...I'm joking... I was bailing later in the day, but this one just seemed funny. Pscyhed myself out...if the GFS is still west and the others don't trend away not sure I care what the EC says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 At hr60 that's a 964mb low sitting off of Cape Cod! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LOL someone just took a sledgehammer to their computer at NCEP. If they come back with "more errors" at 0z it will remind me of the russian diplomat in Hunt for Red October...let me get this straight you lost another sub? IMO, the 0z runs, if they are reasonably similar to the disputed 12z and 18z ones will largely shatter the earlier data issue hypothesis. Already, the NAM has more than held serve. Even if the 0z runs debunk the earlier noted hypothesis, that the hypothesis was suggested should not be too surprising. If a model suddenly takes a position that is extreme and markedly different from most of the other guidance, the first hypothesis is probably that some kind of data assimiliation/initialization led to the outcome. If it didn't, then there is the much more discomfiting notion that some model or models might contain a weakness that ultimately led to a disastrous short-term error (which model or gruop of models wouldn't be known until the event has occurred). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Closes off JUST south of LI at 54...perfect. It's too far east for us to cash in with blockbuster totals but it held serve from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Between 48h-51h the low stalls as the upper levels close off. EPIC Run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This will be a little more progressive than the 18z run because the Quebec trough is dropping south quicker. This will bring the NW cutoff in QPF further SE. 18z NAM QPF was ridiculous anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 we are far from on, we only have 1 member of the 0z suite in tonight. We have the euro and uk off boat, dont get excited yet Oh I understand. I'm just excited that the 00z has held serve from the "bad data". I just spoke with RJ Heim of NBC 10 who put out a Huge 12"+ map for Rhode Island viewers, and he said the 00z's will still be a bit contaminated so.... He said the models get a blend from the previous run so they don't go totally haywire. Hence why it will still be a Bit contaminated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's too far east for us to cash in with blockbuster totals but it held serve from 18z. Its initially west but then ends up just E of 18z later on...the best PVA and height falls are northeast which keeps the low from really ripping back west. That will probably end up being the mechanism that keeps this low from ever getting ridiculously far west. That 5h low is just like a backhoe once it gets over the ocean and keeps plowing its way NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just walked in to see the 21z SREF and the NAM. So much for initialization errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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