snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Trough is definitely going a bit sharper now at 36 hours compared to 42 hours at 18z. This is crazy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looking pretty damn good through 30... digging even more .. should be relatively similar to 18z. That;s an impressive s/w over MN/WI/IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM is going to close off very early. NYC probably gets into the fun on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's coming west my friends. Going to be a monster hit. Looks like it's tucked a hair closer to the Carolina coast at 30h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's coming west my friends. Going to be a monster hit. So what are the odds NCEP throws them both out again because they got bad data supposedly 12 hours ago? The timing is different this run by quite a bit. That timing change...is it going to compensate for what would otherwise be a big hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WOW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm starting to get a bit nervous up here. The SREFs and GFS imply that the storm slides east way to far south to give god's country any heavy precip. Try to make your posts more substantive and objective. Just some friendly advise. You seem like you have a decent meteorological understanding, but your post to information ratio is way too high. Try to THINK before posting, and ask yourself "does this make a worthwhile contribution to the discussion?" A very good way to start is posting current weather observations in the observation threads, and READ the storm model discussion threads. If you still desperately need to share your subjective feelings about every model forecast, then make an account with Storm2K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So what are the odds NCEP throws them both out again because they got bad data supposedly 12 hours ago? The timing is different this run by quite a bit. Well I don't think you can throw the 00z models out because of a bad initialization at 12z lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's more negatively tilted at 36 than the 18z was at 42..and held back a bit...that's amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Actually the 00z NAM is sharper than the 18z NAM at 24 hrs Can a mod please give this guy a 5 post limit, his swings on and off the train are really tiresome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 36 hrs on the NAM looks like it gives heavy snow all the way down to South Carolina and Georgia..wow. This this is really turning into a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 LOL. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RSMEAST_0z/rsmloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Was just going to post, if accurate that's pretty epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Was just going to post, if accurate that's pretty epic. I said it about 1/2 hour ago. I am stupefied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 00z NAM is a major bomb, period. so much for 12z NAM/GFS discount - cha chink, someone 'just didn't want that run to succeed' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 36 hrs on the NAM looms like it gives heavy snow all the way down to South Carolina and Georgia..wow. This this is really turning into a monster. yes, but what will we get out of it? GYX still seems super conservative. Rightly so I guess " SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE STORM WILL BE PASSING BY OVER THE ATLANTIC...BUT FOR THE MOMENT...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT ITS FINAL TRACK. IT WILL LIKELY THROW A LITTLE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST...AS IT MOVES ON BY....BUT WHATEVER THE CASE...IT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO NEW ENGLAND AS IT MOVES ON BY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Can a mod please give this guy a 5 post limit, his swings on and off the train are Hereally tiresome... He's just an enthusiastic weenie. Plenty of room at the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 00z NAM is a major bomb, period. so much for 12z NAM/GFS discount - cha chink, someone 'just didn't want that run to succeed' Any QPF thoughts yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM is going to close off very early. NYC probably gets into the fun on this one. Looks all strung out again and isn't really consolidating out to 42...might that mean later occlusion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 42 looks GREAT...trough just about as negatively tilted as can be with even more amplification out ahead of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Christmas will win in the NAM - "It's A Wonderful Life" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Can a mod please give this guy a 5 post limit, his swings on and off the train are really tiresome... I wholeheartedly agree. Like.. jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 42 looks GREAT...trough just about as negatively tilted as can be with even more amplification out ahead of it! It's negatively tilted in the southern tier at 36 actually - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ian keeps saying it's going to miss...is he talking about DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The 00z NAM is going to look pretty amazing for SNE as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Christmas will win in the NAM - "It's A Wonderful Life" LOL someone just took a sledgehammer to their computer at NCEP. If they come back with "more errors" at 0z it will remind me of the russian diplomat in Hunt for Red October...let me get this straight you lost another sub? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ian keeps saying it's going to miss...is he talking about DC? Well it will miss DC this run but its not missing CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's negatively tilted in the southern tier at 36 actually - Yup...saw that...starting heading towards negative at 30 and was there by 36...great thing to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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