Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 The jackpot on this sref run is from attleboro to taunton. How nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No I'm rooting for a sfc low track over PA to change us all to rain. Would be fitting. I'd take that over another near miss...Christmas miracle coming up on tonight's 0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Oh come on guys... the NAM is out to 12 hours and there are already half a dozen posts jumping off bridges. It is way too early to tell. Let the run come out. So far it is closer to 18z than it is too 12z... it is not quite as deep or intense but it is much more like 18z than 12z. Well it is flatter than 18z. So that probably isn't the best sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 At 12 hours the new nam is vastly different than the 18z or 12z. Flatter in the east, s/w isn't digging as deep in the gulf/faster. There is a potentially nice feature a bit further west - the last s/w. Heights out west are actually higher. Who wins the battle? Yes that may do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Actually the 00z NAM is sharper than the 18z NAM at 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well it is flatter than 18z. So that probably isn't the best sign. Heights are higher out west and there is a trailing s/w that is a little better but is it an aberration of the model? It's flatter in the east but the timing being different may not be bad. But...as you say usually flatter on the EC isn't good. Then again we want it to be further east of the 18z...at least i do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The winter jet (250mb) is showing a major, major hit at 24 on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That southern s/w is booking it versus 18z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm starting to get a bit nervous up here. The SREFs and GFS imply that the storm slides east way to far south to give god's country any heavy precip. You don't live in God's country so don't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is much closer to 18z through 24 hours.. it will be some sort of variation of that, maybe slightly east hard to tell at this point. The s/w coming down through MN is phasing in nicely.. unlike the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Actually the 00z NAM is sharper than the 18z NAM at 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So much for data errors This is gonna be better than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 IMO, this run might be further west based on the trof axis a bit further west vs. 18z and current precip position out to 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That southern s/w is booking it versus 18z.. Some would say a red flag may be that the QPF field hasn't changed yet one of the key s/w just moved 400 miles. There's actually more energy loading down on the 0z. WTF....before we all get out the noose or vodka we should wait for the diagnostic after this am's fiasco! Timinig is way faster on this run...look down near the GOM...it's a few hundred miles further NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 IMO, this run might be further west based on the trof axis a bit further west vs. 18z and current precip position out to 24 I'm not sure I'd say that yet. There are things I like and things I don't like vs 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm not sure I'd say that yet. There are things I like and things I don't like vs 18z. Agree.. as usual. Too early to tell exactly.. but it will not be a complete whiff I don't think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm not sure I'd say that yet. There are things I like and things I don't like vs 18z. Such as? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Nice up by ND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Agree.. as usual. Too early to tell exactly.. but it will not be a complete whiff I don't think It would appear that way at 24h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Agree.. as usual. Too early to tell exactly.. but it will not be a complete whiff I don't think Yeah and TBH at 33 hours it looks better than 18z. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm not sure I'd say that yet. There are things I like and things I don't like vs 18z. Checking this from Christmas dinner table on cell phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 30 hours, mad digging, trof going negative, even moreso than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well it certainly is a bit more held back and digging deeper with the trough. looks a bit more negatively tilted too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 it is But still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Trough is definitely going a bit sharper now at 36 hours compared to 42 hours at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 That backside energy at 30h in Minnesota is stronger. Damn this is gonna produce something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's coming west my friends. Going to be a monster hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 But still lol.. .I think this is not going to change much from 18Z, maybe slightly east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah and TBH at 33 hours it looks better than 18z. Wow. It's much weaker than the GFS with the SLP at 30h vs 18z 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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