Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM immediately weaker with the energy in the MS valley in terms of individual elements. Same in texas, had some issues north of ND...wasn't fast enough. Also quite a bit slower near Missouri. Fairly significant early changes...for better or worse no clue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'll take that track. Though I'd prefer over HYA 100% agree. That's a nice central/eastern look, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Though if I got 10" and Kevin got 7" or so that would mitigate the disappointment the spread in the ensemble members continues to be outrageous for this point in the game. For example, the sref mean at 21z monday has a 24 hour qpf of like 0.88" at ORH...with a spread of over a half inch. there are still some members going with 2.5" qpf and that's really skewing things I think. There are several members with next to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm starting to get a bit nervous up here. The SREFs and GFS imply that the storm slides east way to far south to give god's country any heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the spread in the ensemble members continues to be outrageous for this point in the game. For example, the sref mean at 21z monday has a 24 hour qpf of like 0.88" at ORH...with a spread of over a half inch. there are still some members going with 2.5" qpf and that's really skewing things I think. There are several members with next to nothing. Yeah sometimes the SREF precip means can be deceptive when you have some members really skewing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm starting to get a bit nervous up here. The SREFs and GFS imply that the storm slides east way to far south to give god's country any heavy precip. Stop posting every unconcious thought that comes into your brain please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Though many of us will be disappointed I'm pretty confident we'll see the 00z GFS and NAM slide east toward the global consensus. I really have a hard time buying this far west hiccup... it's just so extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That puts me in the 2.5+ zone. Better than I stood htis morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM immediately weaker with the energy in the MS valley in terms of individual elements. Same in texas, had some issues north of ND...wasn't fast enough. Great... was a fun ride guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am stupefied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Though many of us will be disappointed I'm pretty confident we'll see the 00z GFS and NAM slide east toward the global consensus. I really have a hard time buying this far west hiccup... it's just so extreme. Disregarding those SREFs too eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Flatter up near us, weaker with the southern most system, weaker in the middle of the country, maybe a saving s/w at the far west end of the complex/last one but it looks like maybe ncep was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Disregarding those SREFs too eh? Apparently...I am thinking we disregard everything...storm cancel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On water vapor...it looks like the Northern s/w is moving much quicker than the Southern one. Just doesn't look like things are in sync... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Disregarding those SREFs too eh? Not disregarding just not jumping on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah sometimes the SREF precip means can be deceptive when you have some members really skewing things. Probably the same SREF members that had a blizzard for a lot you the other day at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The poor mid atlantic weenies are already talking about high ratios!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Disregarding those SREFs too eh? Maybe Ryan should take my username for tonight's 0z runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 the spread in the ensemble members continues to be outrageous for this point in the game. For example, the sref mean at 21z monday has a 24 hour qpf of like 0.88" at ORH...with a spread of over a half inch. there are still some members going with 2.5" qpf and that's really skewing things I think. There are several members with next to nothing. Mean still takes the SLP right over the BM or thereabouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Maybe Ryan should take my username for tonight's 0z runs... No I'm rooting for a sfc low track over PA to change us all to rain. Would be fitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 The poor mid atlantic weenies are already talking about high ratios!!!!!!!!!!! Easy to get that in air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not disregarding just not jumping on. Interesting that you think we'll lose the NAM/GFS that much still after they (SREFs) came in great. Not judging that, just wanted to know how much weight you put into them, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The poor mid atlantic weenies are already talking about high ratios!!!!!!!!!!! Lol... Wait til this NAM run gives them flurries and the rest of us 1-3 besides the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So far this NAM is very different. Not sure if for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM through 15 hours has less ridging ahead of it vs 21h on the 18z run...not quite as amplified with the northern stream plunging southward...but maybe it will still produce anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The jackpot on this sref run is from attleboro to taunton. How nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Lol... Wait til this NAM run gives them flurries and the rest of us 1-3 besides the cape It wouldn't shock me. I think a whiff is more likely than a blizzard in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Great... was a fun ride guys Oh come on guys... the NAM is out to 12 hours and there are already half a dozen posts jumping off bridges. It is way too early to tell. Let the run come out. So far it is closer to 18z than it is too 12z... it is not quite as deep or intense but it is much more like 18z than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Interesting that you think we'll lose the NAM/GFS that much still after they (SREFs) came in great. Not judging that, just wanted to know how much weight you put into them, thanks. At 12 hours the new nam is vastly different than the 18z or 12z. Flatter in the east, s/w isn't digging as deep in the gulf/faster. There is a potentially nice feature a bit further west - the last s/w. Heights out west are actually higher. Who wins the battle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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