ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SREFs will probably tell the tale for the 00z suite if they go east, even a mile, we're screwed You have a flair for the dramatic and change sides more often than Blizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow, heavy heavy drinking must be going on for a post like this. Maybe Jen grabbed Kev's blackberry and posted for him before smashing it into a million pieces? He's been drinking red wine, aka truth serum. The real Kevin has emerged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SREFs will probably tell the tale for the 00z suite if they go east, even a mile, we're screwed If you can eyeball a mile change you're God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow, heavy heavy drinking must be going on for a post like this. Maybe Jen grabbed Kev's blackberry and posted for him before smashing it into a million pieces? I am sure there are a few more wives and girlfriends that want to break anything that is wired or wireless right now......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 With this data rumor junk going aorund, I won't feel better about any NCEP products until the 00z data is in there. 21z SREF won't have that yet, so I'm not if it would be affected or not. Maybe they haven't been affected the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the two streams merge it will come up the coast...if they don't it goes further east...is that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 With this data rumor junk going aorund, I won't feel better about any NCEP products until the 00z data is in there. 21z SREF won't have that yet, so I'm not if it would be affected or not. Maybe they haven't been affected the entire time. With a fresh set of RAOBs I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am sure there are a few more wives and girlfriends that want to break anything that is wired or wireless right now......... Thankfully I'm at work. Tomorrow is going to be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 With this data rumor junk going aorund, I won't feel better about any NCEP products until the 00z data is in there. 21z SREF won't have that yet, so I'm not if it would be affected or not. Maybe they haven't been affected the entire time. It's best to do what Sam said earlier, just start anew with the 0z NAM/GFS and forget what they showed at 12z/18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thankfully I'm at work. Tomorrow is going to be tough. You get a free pass tonight, Tomorow you will be in a closet sneaking a peek..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I said this in PM to the guys...all i want to see is not a total miss at 0z. I just really, really worry about a total miss for no other reason than errors roll. 12z errors spill into 18z, and I believe there is contiuity even between main runs. So let's say errors got missed last night or even yesterday in our own models, they may have rolled through. The NCEP timing today just seems odd, the initial statement for the NAM was all was fine, then the GFS delivers a slam and there's major issues with both? They singled out the OP EC as probably having the same issues and voom at 12z it shot east. Was it still suffering at 12z and the zoom east was its manifestation of the problem? Who knows! All interesting stuff. Yet the RUC seems to point towards a compromise with parts of each being right. figuring out which pieces equated to the big hit....no sense even trying. It could well be a wild ride in a few minutes. I just wish NCEP elaborated a little more on what they thought was wrong. In the end we have one of the best all time in harv forecasting a lot of snow and maybe deep down that matters more than any of this. Hopefully....bombs away soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the two streams merge it will come up the coast...if they don't it goes further east...is that right? What will happen if those streams phase: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 21z sref mean has a 977mb low going right over the BM with now up to 1.35" qpf for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 21z sref mean has a 977mb low going right over the BM with now up to 1.35" qpf for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 21z sref mean has a 977mb low going right over the BM with now up to 1.35" qpf for BOS. How many miles west from 15z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 How many miles west from 15z? actually the sfc low track didn't budge one bit. just stronger...by like 5mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 21z sref at 60....nearly perfect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What will happen if those streams phase: well played Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 actually the sfc low track didn't budge one bit. just stronger...by like 5mb. I'll take that track. Though I'd prefer over HYA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 actually the sfc low track didn't budge one bit. just stronger...by like 5mb. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 lol Let's see if we can get the NAM over AVP or something at 00z. Now that would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Okay flat out and not to be held to any of this, what do the pros think? NCEP said there were errors and there obviously were. But did they grossly overstate the potential ramifications by tossing the models? I think they did. I just don't see the big differences unless the RUC is a mess even at 0z and I'm going blind. How can every SREF change be wrong, the NOGAPS/RGEM/all the other models etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'll take that track. Though I'd prefer over HYA even so the sref mean is like 0.70 for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 even so the sref mean is like 0.70 for you. As I said to Ray 3 days ago I am going to be disappointed with anything under a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 As I said to Ray 3 days ago I am going to be disappointed with anything under a foot. Though if I got 10" and Kevin got 7" or so that would mitigate the disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Let's see if we can get the NAM over AVP or something at 00z. Now that would be fun. Or a cutoff to our south 500 miles, or a low that tucks up over Kevin and we all get rained on and dry slotted. If I'm not going to get snow I hope it goes well NW and hits the ski areas and all of you hard. Phil won't mind he's changing diapers anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 As I said to Ray 3 days ago I am going to be disappointed with anything under a foot. I wouldn't just b/c we need snow but I know what you mean. It's been a while since I seen 12''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Okay flat out and not to be held to any of this, what do the pros think? NCEP said there were errors and there obviously were. But did they grossly overstate the potential ramifications by tossing the models? I think they did. I just don't see the big differences unless the RUC is a mess even at 0z and I'm going blind. How can every SREF change be wrong, the NOGAPS/RGEM/all the other models etc. Probably, but at the time it seemed right to do so. Now...meh. And by 00z it might be ut oh big time. I think you're right on all. Gotta love the SREFs now. Though if I got 10" and Kevin got 7" or so that would mitigate the disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 21z sref mean has a 977mb low going right over the BM with now up to 1.35" qpf for BOS. Mike--how's that compare to 15z? Is it heading ene to get there or NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM immediately weaker with the energy in the MS valley in terms of individual elements. Same in texas, had some issues north of ND...wasn't fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.