snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's wrong with the s/w in texas in terms of structure but that's not all that uncommon. A lot of times it misses minor details due to gridscale but the forecast changes very little. I'm being nitpicky trying to find a problem. The larger issue is the timing does seem to be too fast up in the Dakotas, and imo that's pretty big if it carries out the next two hours. One of the issues here is features are not moving at the same speed over many hours. There are times when some features are slowing as they interact and that makes extrapolation very tough. Is it possible that HPC did the same thing? I feel like all model runs have some minor initialization errors. They saw the 12z GFS, they figured there had to be some problem and looked at the initialization. It was wrong, but I bet most are wrong. With the magnitude of the storm they had to say something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
will Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Fun and games from the Earl Barker clown maps where does this image come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 where does this image come from? http://wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is it possible that HPC did the same thing? I feel like all model runs have some minor initialization errors. They saw the 12z GFS, they figured there had to be some problem and looked at the initialization. It was wrong, but I bet most are wrong. With the magnitude of the storm they had to say something. The issue was with the strength of the 3 main s/w features, while the GFS and Euro were quite similar in strength the GFS was MUCH stronger with the s/w at the initial hour than the Euro was and they believe this has major implications down the road as this lead to earlier phasing amongst other things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Are we short enough to be in the MM5's wheelhouse? Seems to show a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The issue was with the strength of the 3 main s/w features, while the GFS and Euro were quite similar in strength the GFS was MUCH stronger with the s/w at the initial hour than the Euro was and they believe this has major implications down the road as this lead to earlier phasing amongst other things. Did they ever actually say it was the sw strength that initialized incorrectly? I thought they had failed to ident specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is it possible that HPC did the same thing? I feel like all model runs have some minor initialization errors. They saw the 12z GFS, they figured there had to be some problem and looked at the initialization. It was wrong, but I bet most are wrong. With the magnitude of the storm they had to say something. No I'm told there were specific problems found. IE, there was definitely an issue. Are they maybe misinterpreting how much of a problem it really is, could be. But they didn't assume anything, there were real issues. They believed those errors propogated throughout the rest of the runs. The 18z models only add some aircraft data and other non-direct data. So to some extent they may just manifest the problems. Please keep in mind flight volume is WAY down from many points in europe all the way back to hubs in the USA. So we are not getting the off hour sampling we would normally get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The issue was with the strength of the 3 main s/w features, while the GFS and Euro were quite similar in strength the GFS was MUCH stronger with the s/w at the initial hour than the Euro was and they believe this has major implications down the road as this lead to earlier phasing amongst other things. Yea.. I guess we'll find out in about 2 hours... Here's what I'm thinking... 25%-Nam/GFS hold 70%-Shift East 4.99999%-Shift West 0.00001%- Yellowstone erupting, engulfing all shortwaves in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No I'm told there were specific problems found. IE, there was definitely an issue. Are they maybe misinterpreting how much of a problem it really is, could be. But they didn't assume anything, there were real issues. They believed those errors propogated throughout the rest of the runs. The 18z models only add some aircraft data and other non-direct data. So to some extent they may just manifest the problems. Please keep in mind flight volume is WAY down from many points in europe all the way back to hubs in the USA. So we are not getting the off hour sampling we would normally get. Do the 0z American models start with a clean slate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Did they ever actually say it was the sw strength that initialized incorrectly? I thought they had failed to ident specifics. I think so...that's what I thought I saw posted here several times and people were talking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 2 things before wife smashes laptop.. 1) Were there init errors on 18z NAM and GFS? 2) How did 18z GEFS look? The errors carry over from 12z... though you'd expect them to be less significant. 18z GEFS were amazing but again the 12z initialization error will carryover to some extent. You'd expect the 18z GEFS to show the least amount of impact from a bad 12z initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Do the 0z American models start with a clean slate? No but with RAOB data the impact will be much less. Scott... don't overlook the amount of remotely sensed data that goes into these models. You'd be shocked at the amount of satellite derived stuff the models use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The errors carry over from 12z... though you'd expect them to be less significant. 18z GEFS were amazing but again the 12z initialization error will carryover to some extent. You'd expect the 18z GEFS to show the least amount of impact from a bad 12z initialization. So then with the MM5 bomb and Nogaps west..is this west trend totally false? DO you think 00z will be well east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So then with the MM5 bomb and Nogaps west..is this west trend totally false? DO you think 00z will be well east? I honestly think no one knows lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So then with the MM5 bomb and Nogaps west..is this west trend totally false? DO you think 00z will be well east? MM5 probably uses the GFS as a first guess... so that would be impacted too. Don't know about the NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No but with RAOB data the impact will be much less. Scott... don't overlook the amount of remotely sensed data that goes into these models. You'd be shocked at the amount of satellite derived stuff the models use. True. Here's what I can be almost sure of, GFS botched the speed of the s/w coming into NW N Dakota. Too fast. That and the dual vortices are the only real issues, everything else looks okay. There will be minor fluctuations I'm sure at init in the MS Valley, but nothing outside of normal 6h adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It would be a heck of a lot of fun to see the Euro blow this. But at this point you still have to bow to it ..until we see the 0Z run. I know if I were a met. I'd probably hate model busts, but I'm not - and I personally always love them. LOL As long as it doesn't negatively impact my snowfall. I've seen posts today that say gfs, gefs, nam and nogaps are all suspect! Oy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It would be a heck of a lot of fun to see the Euro blow this. But at this point you still have to bow to it ..until we see the 0Z run. We certainly will know when the Nam fires the 1st shot at 0z........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am sure we will know what the 00z suite is gonna do just by the SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Scott, looking at the water vapor loop... doesn't it look like the northern plains s/w is already in SD? At 00z the 6-hr GFS had it over SW ND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Scott, looking at the water vapor loop... doesn't it look like the northern plains s/w is already in SD? At 00z the 6-hr GFS had it over SW ND. Looks like two different vortices. The GFS missed the second stronger one up NNW of the ND/CAN border. Here's the funny part, the NAM didnt but it had its own issues in the mid MS Valley ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas Rick. Sure seems like there is some western movement with this event. I just can't bring myself to buy into it totally without the king. Who knows though? I just want to get 4+ so I can flip Etaunton Bob the bird.lol Well, I am cautiously optimistic and really eager to see at least the NAM/GFS tonight. Won't make the EC, but I'll be up at 4:30 to catch that. Merry Christmas, guys. This would be a nice Santa gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Scott, looking at the water vapor loop... doesn't it look like the northern plains s/w is already in SD? At 00z the 6-hr GFS had it over SW ND. Looks like two different vortices. The GFS missed the second stronger one up NNW of the ND/CAN border. Here's the funny part, the NAM didnt but it had its own issues in the mid MS Valley ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Oui vey..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I see the 12Z JMA is right over the Cape and ACK at 12Z Monday. So that held steady from 0Z. 975 MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The 7pm tool someone sent in email shows pretty clearly the NAM was way too strong west of Missouri. Okay elsehwere. At the same time the GFS botched the structure of the s/w in Texas, and seems to have forgotten about the speedmax coming down from NW of ND. Probably not small issues. Again though there are times when what seems like pretty decent errors has no net effect on the forecast. I'm not sold either way and we'll know in an hour. These are the two specific areas NCEP mentioned...the two troughs I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas to you, Pete and everyone else as well. A cold tundra like xmas here 19F now. I have a few inches of snow here, but once you descend the hill into Greater ALB it is spotty and insignificant. Well, I am cautiously optimistic and really eager to see at least the NAM/GFS tonight. Won't make the EC, but I'll be up at 4:30 to catch that. Merry Christmas, guys. This would be a nice Santa gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The 7pm tool someone sent in email shows pretty clearly the NAM was way too strong west of Missouri. Okay elsehwere. At the same time the GFS botched the structure of the s/w in Texas, and seems to have forgotten about the speedmax coming down from NW of ND. Probably not small issues. Again though there are times when what seems like pretty decent errors has no net effect on the forecast. I'm not sold either way and we'll know in an hour. These are the two specific areas NCEP mentioned...the two troughs I mean. When people reference that certain runs are the biggest of peoples lives, I think the next one here would fall into that category..........lol, Merry Christmas to you and your family...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The 7pm tool someone sent in email shows pretty clearly the NAM was way too strong west of Missouri. Okay elsehwere. At the same time the GFS botched the structure of the s/w in Texas, and seems to have forgotten about the speedmax coming down from NW of ND. Probably not small issues. Again though there are times when what seems like pretty decent errors has no net effect on the forecast. I'm not sold either way and we'll know in an hour. These are the two specific areas NCEP mentioned...the two troughs I mean. I have no contentions regarding what you said; just hate hearing it.....though I know what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The 7pm tool someone sent in email shows pretty clearly the NAM was way too strong west of Missouri. Okay elsehwere. At the same time the GFS botched the structure of the s/w in Texas, and seems to have forgotten about the speedmax coming down from NW of ND. Probably not small issues. Again though there are times when what seems like pretty decent errors has no net effect on the forecast. I'm not sold either way and we'll know in an hour. These are the two specific areas NCEP mentioned...the two troughs I mean. how does this compare to what the euro is doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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