December 26-27 Storm Threat

[HIPPYVALLEY]

You're probably right ..just playing devils advocate re: the tainting argument. For me...I'm starting at 0.00" so I feel no pressure here. Any measurable qpf is a trend up.....

That's great - I've been thinking about that all day.

In the Christmas spirit: When you expect nothing, everything you receive is truly a gift!

[CT Rain]

my awips graphics are showing the 0.62 for bdl. There's actually a pretty big precip hole near and ne of bdl on the gfs probably due to some sort of shadowing, lol.

gotta be downsloping off MT Tolland

What's the resolution of the GFS?

Here's the 37km....

[Arnold214]

gotta be downsloping off MT Tolland

What's the resolution of the GFS?

Here's the 37km....

that wedge of lesser precip shows up further west for me.

[CT Rain]

gotta be downsloping off MT Tolland

What's the resolution of the GFS?

Here's the 37km....

Gotcha.

[ORH_wxman]

This does remind me of that 18 hour period back in early Feb 2009 that Ray mentioned. I wish we could still go back and look at the thread, but I distinctly remember saying it was the "NCEP vs Foreign" model battle...the NCEP models had a couple runs in a row where they were showing a monster northeast storm while all the foreign models said no dice.

The Euro had been kicking all the other models azzes all winter so it was easy to sort of disregard the NCEP models (except the weenies who got sucked in of course, lol)...this time we have a similar scenario except the difference in sensible wx is even larger. The storm the NCEP model is creating is a monster blizzard with insane winds and even larger snow totals than that Feb 2009 case.

In the end, the foreign models won handily in that 2009 event, but I'm not all that sure this time. Euro has been having trouble in this pattern. I might go more of a middle ground this time around...its not an easy forecast, thats for sure.

[CTWeatherFreak]

Gotcha.

[Logan11]

That's the way it with interesting snow events to me. Sure I want the most obviously....but it's generally fun to overachieve relative to your initial expectation. Sometimes 6" when you expect 2" can be almost as fun as a foot. And it's also fun to be part of a large regional event even if you aren't in the jackpot.

That's great - I've been thinking about that all day.

In the Christmas spirit: When you expect nothing, everything you receive is truly a gift!

[weatherwiz]

Downslopping...great

[HarveyLeonardFan]

Don't shoot the messenger but the top rated local affiliate in the PVD market (NBC) is calling for snow changing to rain on the Cape/South Coast 2-4/3-6....6-12 Providence/Taunton...and 12+ from Boston out to 495 on up into New Hampshire. There ya have it Ray, RJ Heim in PVD says you're gonna get the jackpot. I know off the wall forecasts are dismissed on this forum but a lot of people in Rhode Island and Fall River New Bedford are gonna see this forecast.

Why do I have a warn status under my profile, after one post??

[ski MRG]

That's the way it with interesting snow events to me. Sure I want the most obviously....but it's generally fun to overachieve relative to your initial expectation. Sometimes 6" when you expect 2" can be almost as fun as a foot. And it's also fun to be part of a large regional event even if you aren't in the jackpot.

Merry Christmas Rick. Sure seems like there is some western movement with this event. I just can't bring myself to buy into it totally without the king. Who knows though? I just want to get 4+ so I can flip Etaunton Bob the bird.lol

[snowNH]

I wonder what Don S is thinking right now...

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Now that's the most bullish post I've seen today.

It's a weather forum not a tv broadcast or public product...kind of time to get off the fence and make a forecast versus just saying how things look. I don't think the GFS/NAM solutions are right. In retrospect the caution shown by NCEP is probably wise pending the 0z, even if very inconvenient for those to our south. I have a strong suspicion the ultimate solution may be between the OP EC and say the 12z OP GFS, similar to the other modest GFS hits for areas around Boston down to PVD with the .5 line being somewhere around or just east of Kev and Will in general. This is all based on the idea that we had one bad run, and not that my fear is correct that other runs may have had some issues and that is why we have had west hits to begin with. I have just as many concerns that the last few runs have had these same issues with these tightly wound features and it was just this morning that the data was rejected/found to be inaccurate.

By about 8pm we should have a much better idea as 0z UA is in. Right now I see a few things that are raising a red flag on the 6h GFS product:

1. The s/w in texas seems to have unwound a bit in terms of structure. It's elongated, the GFS had a tight spiral. That's important because if the ob is correct - and the RUC, the actual s/w center will be displaced a little bit NE/faster. There's clearly two lobes of vorticity right now.

2. The GFS may be a little fast with the feature coming into the western dakotas.

Both of these things have become apparent in the last 5 or so frames of the w/v. Just my observations but it does call into question the GFS. I wish we had a method for comparing it to other misses.

Those are both pretty significant IMO.

[Organizing Low]

This does remind me of that 18 hour period back in early Feb 2009 that Ray mentioned. I wish we could still go back and look at the thread, but I distinctly remember saying it was the "NCEP vs Foreign" model battle...the NCEP models had a couple runs in a row where they were showing a monster northeast storm while all the foreign models said no dice.

The Euro had been kicking all the other models azzes all winter so it was easy to sort of disregard the NCEP models (except the weenies who got sucked in of course, lol)...this time we have a similar scenario except the difference in sensible wx is even larger. The storm the NCEP model is creating is a monster blizzard with insane winds and even larger snow totals than that Feb 2009 case.

In the end, the foreign models won handily in that 2009 event, but I'm not all that sure this time. Euro has been having trouble in this pattern. I might go more of a middle ground this time around...its not an easy forecast, thats for sure.

ive cited that event in many of my posts around the board.

easily the greatest MIDRANGE model collpase and catastrophic failure of alltime IMO.

[SnowMan]

ive cited that event in many of my posts around the board.

easily the greatest MIDRANGE model collpase and failure of alltime IMO.

until now...

[ORH_wxman]

ive cited that event in many of my posts around the board.

easily the greatest MIDRANGE model collpase and catastrophic failure of alltime IMO.

You just reminded me by saying that....I totally forgot for a second that it showed an ohio valley blizzard about 6 days out until about 108 hours out, and then it turned to crap.

That was totally different from the much shorter term bust I was talking about. The time frame for my example was about 60-72 hour out. Not dissimilar from our current time frame.

That was a disaster week for the models. The Euro was first to jump off the Ohio HECS train and then it nailed the solution of the inverted trough on the east coast from that point on.

[Organizing Low]

until now...

no, this is getting into shortrange territory LOL

that was day 4 and beyond.

thats why i said midrange.

[SnowMan]

no, this is getting into shortrange territory LOL

that was day 4 and beyond.

thats why i said midrange.

Ok, this will set a short range flop record...

[Organizing Low]

You just reminded me by saying that....I totally forgot for a second that it showed an ohio valley blizzard about 6 days out until about 108 hours out, and then it turned to crap.

That was totally different from the much shorter term bust I was talking about. The time frame for my example was about 60-72 hour out. Not dissimilar from our current time frame.

That was a disaster week for the models. The Euro was first to jump off the Ohio HECS train and then it nailed the solution of the inverted trough on the east coast from that point on.

ok i didnt realize you were talkikng about a separate event. i thought you were taking about the same event where the models shifted suddenly from an OV blizzard to the 12 or so hour period where the Ukie and Euro showed a NE solution that also trended away.....but obvioiusly not since you mentioned that it was the NCEP models that showed that. which event was that? the OV low was the first week of february.

[CT Rain]

1. The s/w in texas seems to have unwound a bit in terms of structure. It's elongated, the GFS had a tight spiral. That's important because if the ob is correct - and the RUC, the actual s/w center will be displaced a little bit NE/faster. There's clearly two lobes of vorticity right now.

2. The GFS may be a little fast with the feature coming into the western dakotas.

Both of these things have become apparent in the last 5 or so frames of the w/v. Just my observations but it does call into question the GFS. I wish we had a method for comparing it to other misses.

Those are both pretty significant IMO.

Yes, if indeed the GFS is wrong about these features then that's a huge deal.

[ORH_wxman]

ok i didnt realize you were talkikng about a separate event. i thought you were taking about the same event where the models shifted suddenly from an OV blizzard to the 12 or so hour period where the Ukie and Euro showed a NE solution that also trended away.....but obvioiusly not since you mentioned that it was the NCEP models that showed that. which event was that? the OV low was the first week of february.

No we are talking about the same event....but 60-72h out well after the OV blizzard idea was dropped, we saw the ncep models try to give most of the northeast cities a huge snowstorm..but all the foreign models never got on board and they turned out correct.

[yoda]

Fun and games from the Earl Barker clown maps

[Organizing Low]

No we are talking about the same event....but 60-72h our well after the OV blizzard idea was dropped, we saw the ncep models try to give most of the northeast cities a huge snowstorm..but all the foreign models never got on board and they turned out correct.

OK OK yeah yeah i totally remember that.

the euro did nail the inverted trough. from a monster to an inverted trough lol.

ever since, i dont trust any models whenever there is a big phasing event and a poorly sampled northern stream.....until 72 hours out

i guess thats why this event is even testing the limits of that rule i instilled following feb 09 debacle.

[snowNH]

Fun and games from the Earl Barker clown maps

So... PHL and NYC get hit harder than New England? Yea, I might buy that lol...

[Damage In Tolland]

2 things before wife smashes laptop..

1) Were there init errors on 18z NAM and GFS?

2) How did 18z GEFS look?

[ORH_wxman]

OK OK yeah yeah i totally remember that.

the euro did nail the inverted trough. from a monster to an inverted trough lol.

ever since, i dont trust any models whenever there is a big phasing event and a poorly sampled northern stream.....until 72 hours out

i guess thats why this event is even testing the limits of hat rule i instilled following feb 09 debacle.

Yeah huge phasing events are rare, and there's a reason we don't see them that often....its tough to get everything to line up perfectly for them.

As for this current forecast, I'd love to see the Euro come west at least part of the way tonight...aside from all the weenies saying its not very good inside of 72 hours, that is complete bunk. There's a reason we want to see its 72h forecast look good.

This is the past month when the ECMWF supposedly has been struggling a bit. It still whips the NCEP model's butts. This is why there is a lot of head scratching.

[weatherwiz]

2 things before wife smashes laptop..

1) Were there init errors on 18z NAM and GFS?

2) How did 18z GEFS look?

Errors probably carried over to some degree

They were west

[Damage In Tolland]

And are the GEFS affected by init errors?

If so expect a drastic shift east

[Organizing Low]

Yeah huge phasing events are rare, and there's a reason we don't see them that often....its tough to get everything to line up perfectly for them.

As for this current forecast, I'd love to see the Euro come west at least part of the way tonight...aside from all the weenies saying its not very good inside of 72 hours, that is complete bunk. There's a reason we want to see its 72h forecast look good.

This is the past month when the ECMWF supposedly has been struggling a bit. It still whips the NCEP model's butts. This is why there is a lot of head scratching.

yeah you definitely want to see some support from the euro,

i dont think you can ever be comfortable with a forecast if the euro isnt on board. its probably darn near impossibe actually, lol.

for the NCEP models, its defintely concerning that the euro has been ever so gently slowly shifting east the past few days and the ukie/GEM have never bitten.

one of the more interesting forecasts ive ever watched unfold.

id love for something like the 18z NAM to unfold, id have to strongly consider the short road trip.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Yes, if indeed the GFS is wrong about these features then that's a huge deal.

It's wrong with the s/w in texas in terms of structure but that's not all that uncommon. A lot of times it misses minor details due to gridscale but the forecast changes very little. I'm being nitpicky trying to find a problem.

The larger issue is the timing does seem to be too fast up in the Dakotas, and imo that's pretty big if it carries out the next two hours. One of the issues here is features are not moving at the same speed over many hours. There are times when some features are slowing as they interact and that makes extrapolation very tough.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

And are the GEFS affected by init errors?

If so expect a drastic shift east

I've seen posts today that say gfs, gefs, nam and nogaps are all suspect! Oy!