weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Hurling them on the day of the event is too late, though. And doing it on Christmas day stinks. Tough spot for them. Well the impact probably wouldn't be until at the earliest during the late evening Sunday or overnight into Monday so they definitely have time to make some decisions...usually you don't see watches or advisories issued until like 12-18 hours prior...sometimes more depending on the amount of model agreement going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I don't understand what HPC is discounting the GFS on... the latest RUC seems to confirm the GFS and 18z NAM to me and to be quite different from other models. It might be the timing of the 2 s/w north of MN and WI at 12z tomorrow. Could you explain RUC to me please. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z GFS bufkit at BDL only has .2'' of QPF at BDL Thats what I'm saying... the shift east and south has started... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Harvey just led off the 6PM with "increasing chances of a monster", futurecast showed 10-12" for all of Worcester down to about the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If this continues, I wonder when they stop discounting what the models are showing... I would guess they don't until they are satisfied with what they suspect the errors to be and adjust for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 THE GGEM AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN FAIR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. They have? Interesting definition of fair in a few days. Was it not 3 days ago the Euro had what we're seeing the Americans doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z GFS bufkit at BDL only has .2'' of QPF at BDL I wonder how thats even possible lol-- thats not what that run was showing. And the ensembles were bullish too. One positive note is that the 12z euro ensembles were well west of the OP. Hopefully, we will know more by 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Thats what I'm saying... the shift east and south has started... That output doesn't make much sense given the solution the 18z GFS gave us and what the QPF outputs showed..bufkit usually has a much better handle on QPF but that seemed odd. Not that I really care but I just wanted to see what it had for comedy purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 They have? Interesting definition of fair in a few days. Was it not 3 days ago the Euro had what we're seeing the Americans doing? The only time the euro was consistent was when it was showing a monster for like 4 days lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The only time the euro was consistent was when it was showing a monster for like 4 days lol. Yeah, exactly...the ens have been a bit better but that seemed ridiculous to me. I'm not trying to jump on them but the argument of all but dismissing everything but them now because they were fairly consistent doesn't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 That output doesn't make much sense given the solution the 18z GFS gave us and what the QPF outputs showed..bufkit usually has a much better handle on QPF but that seemed odd. Not that I really care but I just wanted to see what it had for comedy purposes. I see 0.45" on BDL Bufkit but that doesn't make any sense to me given the QPF maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Finally got it to work. Thanks. Yeah to have the NGP at 976 on the NE benchmark is pretty impressive when this model is virtually always an eastern outlier. https://www.fnmoc.na..._cgi/index.html this is the one i use, it gives a weird error message, but i've never had a problem w/ it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Can somebody please confirm that the Euro is free from the possible input data being blamed on tainting the US models? (Maybe I missed that earlier) It would be frustrating to see a more W. movemnet on the 0z Eoro only to hear that it too may be "tainted". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NGP is tainted also I guess. Can somebody please confirm that the Euro is free from the possible input data being blamed on tainting the US models? (Maybe I missed that earlier) It would be frustrating to see a more W. movemnet on the 0z Eoro only to hear that it too may be "tainted". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The bad initialization...AKA "Weeniegate" is just another way for 2010 to bend us over; a parting gift.... the "grande finale", if you will. This will be a forgettable event, save maybe for CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NGP is tainted also I guess. It looks like the ensemble mean near the benchmark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Harvey is being bold. Maybe this is the start to the snow totals being increased over the next 24 to 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I dunno I could see a coastal front being a problem for you Ray. The bad initialization...AKA "Weeniegate" is just another way for 2010 to bend us over. This will be a forgettable event, save maybe of rCC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I see 0.45" on BDL Bufkit but that doesn't make any sense to me given the QPF maps It's really odd. The only thing that I can think of right now is looking at the sounding the column isn't completely saturated and looks a little dryish...and looking at the RH fields not much above 85-90%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z GFS bufkit at BDL only has .2'' of QPF at BDL Yea; we appear to get a relative shafting according to the 18z gfs buffkit which you cant tell from the colored qpf bands on the model itself... but I wouldnt take it too seriously... It'll never work out exactly like depicted, especially qpf-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It's really odd. The only thing that I can think of right now is looking at the sounding the column isn't completely saturated and looks a little dryish...and looking at the RH fields not much above 85-90%. Even the higher res GFS i looked at had >1" of QPF at BDL so it's weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I see 0.45" on BDL Bufkit but that doesn't make any sense to me given the QPF maps I get 0.62 off the gfs and 0.66 off the nam. almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 MY only point is.......it always seems like the NGP is one of the more easterly models with east coast lows. So I'd kind of expect it to be 150 miles east of the BM if the other more credible models were on the BM. It looks like the ensemble mean near the benchmark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Even the higher res GFS i looked at had >1" of QPF at BDL so it's weird. Luckily there is no need to out a ton of stick into this outout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I get 0.62 off the gfs and 0.66 off the nam. almost identical. Funny how were getting different numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I get 0.62 off the gfs and 0.66 off the nam. almost identical. I got that off the NAM as well. Was just curious bc I got 0.45" on the GFS but the QPF graphics looked like 1" easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It's that Litchfield Hills/Berkshires shadow 2 feet for Pete and 2 inches for you. LOL and 2 feet for the Reverend. Luckily there is no need to out a ton of stick into this outout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 MY only point is.......it always seems like the NGP is one of the more easterly models with east coast lows. So I'd kind of expect it to be 150 miles east of the BM if the other more credible models were on the BM. Well the NOGAPS often makes a big leap W close to the consensus once we get inside of 3 days...its usually a good sign of whats going on, so I think the W trend is real, but I highly doubt its as extreme as the GFS is trying to paint it. Believe me, I'd like a Dec '92-esque cutoff position like that where I probably get 2 feet of snow aided by upslope, but I'm not about to con myself into thinking that is going to happen at this point. Not until there is more objectively clear evidence. There's plenty of reason to think its too far west right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You're probably right ..just playing devils advocate re: the tainting argument. For me...I'm starting at 0.00" so I feel no pressure here. Any measurable qpf is a trend up..... Well the NOGAPS often makes a big leap W close to the consensus once we get inside of 3 days...its usually a good sign of whats going on, so I think the W trend is real, but I highly doubt its as extreme as the GFS is trying to paint it. Believe me, I'd like a Dec '92-esque cutoff position like that where I probably get 2 feet of snow aided by upslope, but I'm not about to con myself into thinking that is going to happen at this point. Not until there is more objectively clear evidence. There's plenty of reason to think its too far west right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I got that off the NAM as well. Was just curious bc I got 0.45" on the GFS but the QPF graphics looked like 1" easy. my awips graphics are showing the 0.62 for bdl. There's actually a pretty big precip hole near and ne of bdl on the gfs probably due to some sort of shadowing, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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