December 26-27 Storm Threat

[ORH_wxman]

hmmm... this is crazy.. aksed CoastalWx this too... is this the hardest forecast you've ever seen will?

This is one of the nuttier flip flops I've seen int he models in a while. But I don't think its an overly horrific forecast yet. I'm basically here right now:

1) Do not believe the total whiff like Ukie

2) Do not believe the monster like GFS

It will quite likely be somewhere in between and probably close to the ensemble mean which has been chilling out near the benchmark the past 3 days. The forecast will become a lot harder if we see the spread increase on the 00z runs. I'm currently leaning for good snows in eastern SNE with lighter snows to the west.

[TalcottWx]

UKIE is the red flag on top of the red flag that was the bad initializations that infected both the 12z and 18z runs.

[snowNH]

Answers some questions, but the 18z should have muted the errors not continued to make them more pronounced. Something is seriously f'd up.

Look at the 18 UA composites, the RUC throughout and compare it to the 18z GFS for instance. There's just no significant differences for that time range.

Mysterious.

maybe it will take a couple of runs to fix... We'll see a shift east on 00z.. I'm sure

[Ryan]

Harvey Leonard.. http://www.thebostonchannel.com/video/26269291/detail.html

[Logan11]

Ok just in from the final round of Christmas shopping..... Do we still think the 12Z was a result of bad data?

The NAM is now is now a major hit also for all of NE I see... even .4" back here.

[Boston-winter08]

NOGAPS sucks, i know that, but it is rarely this far NW...do the initialization errors affect this model, as well

[weatherwiz]

Whoa...well, flurries are "snow", too.

True, but if you say snow the public thinks accumulating snow and freak out and then run to the stores and stock up on food like it's the end of the world.

[TalcottWx]

Ok just in from the final round of Christmas shopping..... Do we still think the 12Z was a result of bad data?

The NAM is now is now a major hit also for all of NE I see... even .4" back here.

It was.

[apm]

Now that's the most bullish post I've seen today.

NOGAPs way west. I think I'm calling the bluff. I don't think the NCEP models are super out to lunch.

[moneypitmike]

Just got back from Mass. Had a quick glance at the NAM before I left, and just took a gander at the GFS.

Melike.

Should this come to pass, I hope the techs at hpc continue to leave in place whatever initilaization issue they had. Allows the model to be the first on the trend. Or, then again, maybe it's out to lunch. I do think I'll stay up for the GFS tonight.

[Kbosch]

True, but if you say snow the public thinks accumulating snow and freak out and then run to the stores and stock up on food like it's the end of the world.

Definitely, good point. It is so much worse than normal because of the holidays. I think Ryan had the right approach in terms of warning people. NWS is screwed if the GFS is not riddled with errors right now since they'll be hurling up watches and warnings Christmas morning and no one will be paying attention.

[Logan11]

I didn't think the bad data would have had such a pronounced affect on all of the ensemble members also...but I don't understand all that stuff.

.

It was.

[WeatherX]

GFS Ensembles are all aboard!

[snowNH]

GFS Ensembles are all aboard!

colorful maps please... heard they were wetter than 12z

[Logan11]

Whats a good URL for the NGP? I haven't looked at it in years and my links are dead.

NOGAPS sucks, i know that, but it is rarely this far NW...do the initialization errors affect this model, as well

[WeatherX]

colorful maps please... heard they were wetter than 12z

Can't post them here....you'll see them shortly

Merry Christmas to all!

[weatherwiz]

Definitely, good point. It is so much worse than normal because of the holidays. I think Ryan had the right approach in terms of warning people. NWS is screwed if the GFS is not riddled with errors right now since they'll be hurling up watches and warnings Christmas morning and no one will be paying attention.

Well I'm pretty sure we will have a fairly solid idea by 12z tomorrow who will end up with warning criteria and who will end up with advisory criteria for the most part. Since this storm isn't until late Sunday night or Monday tomorrow is too early anyway to be hurling warnings and advisories.

[Organizing Low]

I can't take this.....the models are doing this on purpose; those sick, sadistic fu**s have a torture fetish.

If the EURO verifies, I'm gonna jump in front of Santa's sleigh on his way back to the N Pole.

defintely the sickest and most twisted weenie joke of all time if it doesnt pan out.

[Boston-winter08]

Whats a good URL for the NGP? I haven't looked at it in years and my links are dead.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/index.html

this is the one i use, it gives a weird error message, but i've never had a problem w/ it

[mattb65]

Wouldn't it be awesome if the data errors happened on runs we hated

[blazess556]

WOW at the 18z GFS ensembles

[OSUmetstud]

[Kbosch]

Well I'm pretty sure we will have a fairly solid idea by 12z tomorrow who will end up with warning criteria and who will end up with advisory criteria for the most part. Since this storm isn't until late Sunday night or Monday tomorrow is too early anyway to be hurling warnings and advisories.

Hurling them on the day of the event is too late, though. And doing it on Christmas day stinks. Tough spot for them.

[Bryan]

[Patfan1987]

wow, thats beautiful!

[mahk_webstah]

UKIE is the red flag on top of the red flag that was the bad initializations that infected both the 12z and 18z runs.

and what are the UKie and the JMA?

[weatherwiz]

18z GFS bufkit at BDL only has .2'' of QPF at BDL

[skierinvermont]

I don't understand what HPC is discounting the GFS on... the latest RUC seems to confirm the GFS and 18z NAM to me and to be quite different from other models.

It might be the timing of the 2 s/w north of MN and WI at 12z tomorrow.

[centralmass]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

555 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010

WITH THE MODEL SOLUTION PROBLEMS ON THE AMERICAN MODEL SUITE NOTED

ABOVE...DID NOT RELY ON THESE SOLUTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/S

FORECAST. THE STORM TRACK ON THE 12Z GFS AS WELL AS THE 12Z AND 18Z

NAM WERE WELL W OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL SUITE. THE GGEM AND

ECMWF HAVE SHOWN FAIR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.

BOTH OF THESE MODELS HAVE KEPT THE LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THE NAM OR GFS SINCE THEY HAVE

BEEN SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM PRIOR

TO THE 12Z INIT PROBLEMS. SO...LEANED TOWARD HPC/S SOLUTION KEEPING

CONSISTENCY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

FORECASTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT...

DIGGING A DEEP H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE

APPALACHIANS WITH A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND

SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLC COAST. THE BIG QUESTIONS AT THIS POINT WILL

BE WHERE THIS CUTOFF GOES FROM THERE...WHETHER IT CAPTURES THE

DEVELOPING SURFACE SYSTEM...AS WELL AS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND

SOUTHERN JET STREAMS.

FOR NOW...PRETTY MUCH STAYED THE COURSE WITH CONSISTENCY WITH

PREVIOUS FORECASTS. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE BEST CHANCE OF

PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS E COASTAL MA AND ESPECIALLY CAPE COD AND THE

ISLANDS. SO...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SUNDAY

NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR W AS N CENTRAL

CT/CENTRAL MA AND S CENTRAL NH.

THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE THE QPF AMOUNTS. AGAIN LEANED AWAY FROM

THE GFS-BASED MODEL GUIDANCE /THE HIGHER AMTS/. YIELDED UP TO

0.5-0.75 INCHES...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS ASPECT AS

WELL.

[SnowMan]

If this continues, I wonder when they stop discounting what the models are showing...