Sn0waddict Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well did the best I could at 5pm lol I thought you did a great job. Definitely put an emphasis on the fact that this storm COULD be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NAM and GFS both had a blizz at about 48 hrs in Feb of 2009; EURO had an inverted trough of garbage...guess what took place. Was that the early-month event that showed up as a bowling ball and ended as a wet torch? If so, IIRC, the phail occurred more than 48 hr out, but still a weenie nightmare. One reason I ask is because something rather nice happened in the Maine foothills later that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I am riding whatever model shows the best snows...20 inches it is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think I would go the "Chances of a huge storm for eastern SNE are increasing, but still a lot of uncertainty" route...sounds like thats basically what Harvey did. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbc360 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well did the best I could at 5pm lol I watched it, personally I have a tendency to get frustrated with some mets hype but the explanation you had was a good one highliting the problems associated with the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 When do GFS ensembles come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I believe I am more giddy for tonight than any spoiled kid waiting for the fat man in a red suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I watched it, personally I have a tendency to get frustrated with some mets hype but the explanation you had was a good one highliting the problems associated with the data. Yeah I basically said the most likely scenario was a light-moderate event... a couple inch kind of deal. But I said some of our computer models are insisting on a huge hit and while it's not likely it's possible so we'll have to watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think I would go the "Chances of a huge storm for eastern SNE are increasing, but still a lot of uncertainty" route...sounds like thats basically what Harvey did. Your rule of thumb regarding the NOGAPS - it paused a little at 12z, but it's been coming west and is now a nice hit. Hard to ignore and I have no idea how it could be that the lowly nogaps also got bad data. I'm not wavering from the .5 line as drawn yesterday. I'm really concerned NCEP has made a major mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think I would go the "Chances of a huge storm for eastern SNE are increasing, but still a lot of uncertainty" route...sounds like thats basically what Harvey did. Back here we have a lot more to lose than Harvey does. At least BOS gets snow even with a Euro-type solution. Maybe even warning criteria. We could easily get totally whiffed back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I believe I am more giddy for tonight than any spoiled kid waiting for the fat man in a red suit. Until you sneak out of bed, hide behind the chair only to witness Santa fall down the chimney and break his neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What scares me is that the EURO is infaillible when it shows boring. The OP EC hasn't had the same forecast for more than 2 runs this entire storm. It's the only model trending east right now. I think some would benefit from the discussions taking place in the UK and Europe regarding Euro performance in the reason period over there. It's been ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yeah I basically said the most likely scenario was a light-moderate event... a couple inch kind of deal. But I said some of our computer models are insisting on a huge hit and while it's not likely it's possible so we'll have to watch it. Perfectly said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm shocked to see NOGAPS so far west...that model is always way SE, always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Back here we have a lot more to lose than Harvey does. At least BOS gets snow even with a Euro-type solution. Maybe even warning criteria. We could easily get totally whiffed back here. You've done a great job with moderation and objectivity even though it's obvious here you're a weenie at heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 From Albany.... Nice discussion ...MAJOR EAST COAST STORM APPEARS TO BE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...OR DOES IT?... AS OF 5PM... NCEP 18Z MODEL DATA HAS ARRIVED WITH A TREND A FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE UPCOMING SUN-MON EVENT. AS NOTED BELOW...INITIAL ERROR CONDITIONS REMAIN WITH DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS QUITE DRAMATIC. PER THE GFS...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK DOES SEEM PLAUSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND TIMING OF THOSE UPSTREAM WAVES REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST ENSEMBLE INFORMATION FROM THE GFS/SREF/ECMWF ALSO SUGGEST A POSSIBLE WESTWARD SHIFT. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS. LETS HOPE THE 00Z RAOB NETWORK TONIGHT CAPTURES THE KEY FEATURES... WE WILL LEAVE THE HWO ALONE AND THE CURRENT FORECAST/GRIDS. PREV DISCUSSION... THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLENTY OF ATTENTION ON THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS. NCEP MODEL SUITE...ALONG WITH INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS...MAINLY FAVOR THE FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION ON THIS EVOLVING STORM. HERE ARE A FEW KEY ELEMENTS THAT THE MODELS ARE HAVING CHALLENGES WITH THE INITIALIZATION TODAY... 1. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY TIGHT/STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. 2. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA APPROACHING MISSOURI. 3. ADDITIONAL COMPLEX WAVES OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THAT CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD...ALBEIT SLOWER MOVEMENT THAN THE DOWNSTREAM WAVE OVER NE/MO. 4. UPPER FLOW AND TROUGH ORIENTATION REMAINS POSITIVELY TILTED AT THIS TIME. THROUGH EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HPC...THE 12Z GFS WAS DISCOUNTED. THE MODEL DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL WITH ERRORS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER NE AND NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. ERRORS APPEAR TO BE LESS WITH THE 12Z NAM/GGEM/ECMWF/UKMET. THE GFS AMPLIFIES THESE ERRORS...ALONG WITH WHAT SEEMS TO BE INCREASED CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...FOR RAPID DEEPENING OF THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS SUN-MON AND VERY CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE /IN OTHER WORDS...A MAJOR STORM FOR THE FORECAST AREA/. THIS TOO APPEARS TO HAVE IMPACTED ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH ASSOCIATED PERTURBATIONS OFF THESE ERRORS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z ukie anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 BOX still not out with their AFD. Interested to see what they have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z ukie anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You've done a great job with moderation and objectivity even though it's obvious here you're a weenie at heart. Total weenie at heart but it doesn't influence my forecasts. I'm probably more conservative than most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 BOX still not out with their AFD. Interested to see what they have to say. These are the times I wish Walt was still around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
will Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 looks snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Until you sneak out of bed, hide behind the chair only to witness Santa fall down the chimney and break his neck. At least we can all sustain a modest sense of humor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Interesting to see on the 18Z GFS the surface low track up the eastern seaboard following the land curvature. The timing of the upper level dynamics is just perfect to hook the surface low right around the outer banks, towards the jersey shore, then paralleling long island and southern new england coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z ukie anyone? Total whiff still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Total whiff still. hmmm... this is crazy.. aksed CoastalWx this too... is this the hardest forecast you've ever seen will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Geoff Fox sounds more on the extreme side...saying snow is LIKELY to begin sometime Sunday morning or afternoon and lasting through Monday...did say though it could be quite significant if it doesn't go too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 From Albany.... Nice discussion THROUGH EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HPC...THE 12Z GFS WAS DISCOUNTED. THE MODEL DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL WITH ERRORS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER NE AND NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. ERRORS APPEAR TO BE LESS WITH THE 12Z NAM/GGEM/ECMWF/UKMET. THE GFS AMPLIFIES THESE ERRORS...ALONG WITH WHAT SEEMS TO BE INCREASED CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...FOR RAPID DEEPENING OF THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS SUN-MON AND VERY CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE /IN OTHER WORDS...A MAJOR STORM FOR THE FORECAST AREA/. THIS TOO APPEARS TO HAVE IMPACTED ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH ASSOCIATED PERTURBATIONS OFF THESE ERRORS. Answers some questions, but the 18z should have muted the errors not continued to make them more pronounced. Something is seriously f'd up. Look at the 18 UA composites, the RUC throughout and compare it to the 18z GFS for instance. There's just no significant differences for that time range. Mysterious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Geoff Fox sounds more on the extreme side...saying snow is LIKELY to begin sometime Sunday morning or afternoon and lasting through Monday...did say though it could be quite significant if it doesn't go too far east. Whoa...well, flurries are "snow", too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 hmmm... this is crazy.. aksed CoastalWx this too... is this the hardest forecast you've ever seen will? LURK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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