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December 26-27 Storm Threat

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Really... at 48 hours I think it looks NW.

Just to throw it out:

Earlier RUC runs for 0z tonight were considerably stronger with the 3 parcels of vorticity in the midwest. They have weakened each of the last three runs. They are about dead on the strength of the 6h 18z GFS at 20 units....but that's surprising because the RUC is almost always stronger than the GFS. IE, gives credence to NCEP's concerns.

I don't know, I can see their concern, but I'm still left wondering if the US models are going to score a semi-coup and that this low is going to end up left of the current consensus....IE the problems are causing it to be a little too itnense/wraped up but it's still going to be a nice system running around the BM.

The EC...well, it has moved 1000 miles in the last 3 days. It has really had two runs that are the same and it sounds like even the EC Ens shifted?

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

The EC ensembles have been remarkably consistent through all the oscillations of the OP runs on each side. So I'm leaning that way...maybe we can bring this west a bit but until we have good evidence this GFS stuff has any merit, it doesn't do much.

The RGEM coming in more like the SREF and NAM looks promising though. So maybe there's a legit west trend to follow, however, I'd really wait until 00z before calling any trend....at least IMHO.

Yeah you're right, I wasn't thinking about the ens. when I made that post but the agreement between the euro ensembles have been pretty incredible and even now I find it hard to go against them. I still don't discount we can't bring this back further west but I just can't see leaning towards the 12z GFS/18Z NAM/GFS...not until the Euro shows something similar.

What we seen on these runs so far changes nothing from my thinking that CT sees little of anything (although some minor accumulations can't be ruled out) and the better stuff occurs out across far eastern MA and some stuff out by you.

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DomNH

DomNH

Posted
Posted

I can't take this.....the models are doing this on purpose; those sick, sadistic fu**s have a torture fetish.

If the EURO verifies, I'm gonna jump in front of Santa's sleigh on his way back to the N Pole.

LOL, yeah, this is the sort of stuff you'd expect 138 hours out, not 66. Brutal.

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted

Considering the spread we've been seeing we need to see more than a few sets of models and one suite of agreement before we can call this game on, and especially considering this is still 3 days out.

2 days not 3... its funny how the NAM and GFS both show a major blizzard for our area 48-60 hours away and no one is too excited.. too bad this is 18z but im definitely very excited to see the 00z suite and if they still show this then we will all be pumped..

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

These two 18z runs really provided some great comedy relief...but they still at least kept the door open just a crack.

Frankly I don't care what the 0z NAM/GFS show really...I want to start seeing the global models (the Euro at least) show us something that says, the GFS/NAM are onto something. It's quite interesting though that the GFS now gives us something similar to what the euro spitted out a few days ago.

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