TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18Z GFS is pretty amplified through 42 hours... LOL it might ping us? who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18Z GFS is pretty amplified through 42 hours... More so than 12z. Hey... maybe I can change to pingers this run!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Just arrived in snowless CT and I see that the 18z runs are excellent. Very, very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 similar to ? 12z? I think the northern energy is digging better and maybe further west. Through 24 there didn't look to be much of a difference to be, maybe some slight differences but they were rather minute and didn't really matter much imo. Through 30 though it's definitely a little slower with the southern s/w and is more neutral tilt than positive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Probably will be similar to a few days ago's historic Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Geez, I go out and come back and we are still getting clobberd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 yeah, seems to phase at 33hrs.. maybe NE Alabama.. this run will be good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The Euro has superior data assimilation. The guys at NCEP will tell you that as well. If you compare the 12z GFS and Euro 500mb initializations the GFS was substantially stronger with the 3 main shortwaves. The location of the 3 was identical but the vorticity was quite a bit more impressive on the Euro. Thanks. The GFS is ALWAYS the weakest though in my experience. The RUC is always very helpful in pointing that out as is the NAM. What's great about the GFS is it usually is less prone to shifting things around because of that it seems. IE, it doesn't pick up on the finer movements of the small features. That's why I have a hard time believing this is just a data error, I have to think it's partly bad math, or that the error is being grossly overstated because NCEP was figuring something had to be wrong. I think this run will be similar to 12Z, maybe further west.. depends on the phasing. I meant to quote will on the RGEM. Everything including the RUC which should mostly be unaffected I think continues to ramp this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Apps runner for 18z GFS? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 48 hours out and I either struggle to reach warning criteria or change to rain This is honestly absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Another monster. How long until they toss this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 More digging at 42 HR than the 12z...more amplified out in the east too and the trough is already going negatively tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 HPC eat crow? No, they are covered for the 18z runs...they said it might be an issue still. We'll see how amped up they look at 00z. For now, I'm not taking it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 might this occlude too early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think it may be a little se of the 12z gfs based on H5 but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Apps runner for 18z GFS? haha This will not bring rain/pl to boston ....at least not before a ton of snow per what I'm seeing through 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 No, they are covered for the 18z runs...they said it might be an issue still. We'll see how amped up they look at 00z. For now, I'm not taking it seriously. If 00z follows suit is it 100% game on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If 00z follows suit is it 100% game on? A lot of that has to depend on the Euro, I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think it may be a little se of the 12z gfs based on H5 but we'll see. Really... at 48 hours I think it looks NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This will not bring rain/pl to boston ....at least not before a ton of snow per what I'm seeing through 51. yeah i know i was exaggerating, but it does seem another 25 miles west or so lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If 00z follows suit is it 100% game on? Considering the spread we've been seeing we need to see more than a few sets of models and one suite of agreement before we can call this game on, and especially considering this is still 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If 00z follows suit is it 100% game on? Someone said the EURO still brings advisory levels snows to Route 128. TBH, I'd take that. Still waiting for my first 3"+ SF...been waiting since mid Jan '10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It's further west through 54 and slower too...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Really... at 48 hours I think it looks NW. Maybe more south, it looked like H5 was closing earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Considering the spread we've been seeing we need to see more than a few sets of models and one suite of agreement before we can call this game on, and especially considering this is still 3 days out. Two days fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Looks like it's even a bit west of 18z NAM at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is like exactly Euro's solution from 3 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 LOL it might ping us? who knows Looks like it. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Two days fwiw. IMO 1.5 days... we'll know if its phased or not by tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Considering the spread we've been seeing we need to see more than a few sets of models and one suite of agreement before we can call this game on, and especially considering this is still 3 days out. The EC ensembles have been remarkably consistent through all the oscillations of the OP runs on each side. So I'm leaning that way...maybe we can bring this west a bit but until we have good evidence this GFS stuff has any merit, it doesn't do much. The RGEM coming in more like the SREF and NAM looks promising though. So maybe there's a legit west trend to follow, however, I'd really wait until 00z before calling any trend....at least IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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