snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'd prefer the 12z GFS, thanks. Ha either is fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 WSW just went up for the Outer Banks. And so it begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yeah... I really want to hear more about the errors the NCEP is talking about. You'd always take the Euro's initialization over the GFS because it is superior. But at 00h/06h I don't see huge differences between the two. I did note that the gfs had a strong s/w north of MT right off the bat, and that got the ball rolling. Looking at the gfs, it's not like I say.."whoa that clearly has no place there". So yeah, what does NCEP know about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I love that we will know the outcome by tomorrow night... if its on the coast and negatively tilted, then its coming... simple as that.. No stupid block to suppress this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If 12z was not to be trusted, and 18z is also suspect, at what point can we start taking the models at face value? I mean, how long do those initialization errors carry over for? Can 00z be trusted? I'm not sure they can ever really be trusted. I think we still need to rely on human interpretive skills for accurate forecasting. That's why everyone will be tuning in tonight to see what Ryan and his colleagues will say. (no pressure Ryan, no pressure.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm waiting til 0z to dive in to this hot mess. I'm too skittish of these errors. And I'd like Doc No to give his blessings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I did note that the gfs had a strong s/w north of MT right off the bat, and that got the ball rolling. Looking at the gfs, it's not like I say.."whoa that clearly has no place there". So yeah, what does NCEP know about this. Well the weird thing is that the GFS was stronger with all 3 shortwaves involved than the Euro. The one over Manitoba, the one over Iowa, and the one in Texas. That gave us the perfect storm, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You younguns are getting a taste of what we went through way back, LOL I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You younguns are getting a taste of what we went through way back, LOL I You talking about 2001? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think a good action to take would be to throw out everything we have seen from model guidance over the last week, and start fresh with the 00z runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You younguns are getting a taste of what we went through way back, LOL I Good. They need the sting of the burn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think a good action to take would be to throw out everything we have seen from model guidance over the last week, and start fresh with the 00z runs tonight. The most interesting the 0z NAM will ever be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Total outage right now on comcast with amwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Total outage right now on comcast with amwx Seems to be back? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Total outage right now on comcast with amwx Yeah I just started having issues as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yeah I just started having issues as well. Same here. working now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Same here. The rest of the worldwide interweb thingy worked fine. If this snowmageddon happens there's going to be serious server eeeshues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The last time I checked in was when the Euro came out. Has anything changed since then or is it still east of the BM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 gfs initialized...getcha popcorn ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Looks like the 18z NAM has been discounted by HPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 FWIW, it appears the 18z GFS initialized very similar to the 12z GFS 6h forecast. TX shortwave a bit weaker... but s/w entering ND a bit stronger. Those are the 2 to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Same here. working now.... Same here, and I'm using google DNS so its not that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 i just saw the 18z NAM **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 if anything close to that happened, i would road trip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The last time I checked in was when the Euro came out. Has anything changed since then or is it still east of the BM? Well, NAM just dropped a WMD on New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I lost my fooking post, but I was saying I would never throw anything out, but given the euro and ensembles...and also what happened at NCEP, these solutions give me pause, that's all. There will be explosive cyclogenesis, and gulf lows scare me, but man...something like the NAM?? I just don't know about that. I guess we'll see what 00z does. If that moves towards the 12z gfs and 18z nam, then we may have something. The gfs going to the BM is one thing, but the 12z gfs going south of BID and 18z NAM over Nauset Beach is something else. It just comes down to probability. You incorporate all the solutions and figure out the best approach. I'd lean to the euro end ensembles right now, but that doesn't mean it can't go west a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NAM bufkit has 1.7'' QPF at PVD...all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Looks like the 18z NAM has been discounted by HPC. As we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Overload of weenies coming on board all at once. Going to my parents in nw mass on Sunday afternoon. If I am stuck there due to massive snow storm, I may have to hang myself, even in the midst of all of the snow-joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 HPC Discount Desk busy day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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