weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NAM literally gives everyone in eastern NE 12+ and outer cape maybe 8-12 in a few spots. Literal interp from snow tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 At the inlaws just gave a big hoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 WTF is going on in these threads? 12z GFS = HUGE HIT 18z NAM = HUGE HIT 12z EURO = OTS (From what I gathered) That must mean we'll have partly cloudy skies...cuz the EURO is NEVER wrong! What a bunch of weenies....MERRY CHRISTMAS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Its one thing when its just one model run showing a major snowstorm, its another thing when the GFS, NAM and GFS ensembles all show it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Its one thing when its just one model run showing a major snowstorm, its another thing when the GFS, NAM and GFS ensembles all show it All with bad data but yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Just got back from visiting across the street ... just saw the rest of the NAM run .... lmao Wish it was believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Totally insane! I have been following the weather for the better part of 40 years and never have I seen this much flopping around of models. The QPF maps are exquisite on this latest run, but still have doubts because of the errors on the 12Z init. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 All with bad data but yes. Where did they get this bad data? Exactly how do we know it's bad data? I don't feel like searching for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Someone mentioned in the NYC thread that even though there was an error in the 12z initialization... that has nothing to do with the 18z initialization I don't know about that. One thing always say is beware of gulf lows. They can be explosive (see baroclnic instability post in the main thread). That said, I have a hard time with these solutions. If the 18z gfs holds serve, it will open my eye a little more, but it may not be until after 00z before we figure out everything. I just need more support for such an insane solution. You have the euro and ensembles at 60-72 hrs out with a solution east of the BM. That is tough to beat and would be a bad fail if this went onto CHH. While these lows can be explosive, it looks like the NAM tapped the egg nog early. I never rule out anything, just looking at this from a met standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 only in 2010 the year of the cosmic dildo swat could we be F'd with so badly. as we end the year models trend in 9'th inning toward slower closer bomb and HPC says toss them (cept the sref mean which they said ///don't toss) . with that said i am alot happier that these models didn't go way OTS and then ....say ....ya well we should toss these . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Its one thing when its just one model run showing a major snowstorm, its another thing when the GFS, NAM and GFS ensembles all show it don't forget the sref's but in reality we won't know until 00z whether these runs were right or totally otl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I don't know about that. One thing always say is beware of gulf lows. They can be explosive (see baroclnic instability post in the main thread). That said, I have a hard time with these solutions. If the 18z gfs holds serve, it will open my eye a little more, but it may not be until after 00z before we figure out everything. I just need more support for such an insane solution. You have the euro and ensembles at 60-72 hrs out with a solution east of the BM. That is tough to beat and would be a bad fail if this went onto CHH. While these lows can be explosive, it looks like the NAM tapped the egg nog early. I never rule out anything, just looking at this from a met standpoint. Is this the hardest forecast you have ever made? The crappy thing is that the GFS cannot possibly show a better run than the last one .. so it WILL be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Nice clown maps on the NAM, now that's a stemwinder, geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 could any met tell if there was a west ward more amped cluster of a group of the euro ensembles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Someone mentioned in the NYC thread that even though there was an error in the 12z initialization... that has nothing to do with the 18z initialization They're wrong. I'd suggest you read posts by mets and absorb and digest what they're talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I don't know about that. One thing always say is beware of gulf lows. They can be explosive (see baroclnic instability post in the main thread). That said, I have a hard time with these solutions. If the 18z gfs holds serve, it will open my eye a little more, but it may not be until after 00z before we figure out everything. I just need more support for such an insane solution. You have the euro and ensembles at 60-72 hrs out with a solution east of the BM. That is tough to beat and would be a bad fail if this went onto CHH. While these lows can be explosive, it looks like the NAM tapped the egg nog early. I never rule out anything, just looking at this from a met standpoint. Perhaps by Tuesday morning. I remember an old Met I used to listen to say that lows coming at us from out of the gulf could be as tough as a hurricane to pin a track on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Is this the hardest forecast you have ever made? Luckily, I don't have to..lol. I've never seen such insanity. March '01 was wild, but all these solutions in the same day, less than 72 hrs out and in the year 2010 are amazing to me. Literally all you can say, is WTF. I don't know if it has to do with the initialization scheme ( we should not be able to blame everything on that), or what. I just can't buy this exotic solution right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well, the NAM is wound up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 could any met tell if there was a west ward more amped cluster of a group of the euro ensembles! There are some western outliers, but they were there yesterday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Luckily, I don't have to..lol. I've never seen such insanity. March '01 was wild, but all these solutions in the same day, less than 72 hrs out and in the year 2010 are amazing to me. Literally all you can say, is WTF. I don't know if it has to do with the initialization scheme ( we should not be able to blame everything on that), or what. I just can't buy this exotic solution right now. I dunno... the HPC is saying the Euro's data assimilation and initialization was superior to the GFS today. Well no sh*t... it always is. With no bad data I don't know how this is any different than usual? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Luckily, I don't have to..lol. I've never seen such insanity. March '01 was wild, but all these solutions in the same day, less than 72 hrs out and in the year 2010 are amazing to me. Literally all you can say, is WTF. I don't know if it has to do with the initialization scheme ( we should not be able to blame everything on that), or what. I just can't buy this exotic solution right now. Does the 00z GFS last night showing the a similar solution and the Euro showing the same solution a couple days ago have any merit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If the 18z Nam were to verify... I honestly wouldn't care if it snowed the rest of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 from main by a met [/quote name=chris87' timestamp='1293223679' post='172110] the 18z NAM would have been initialized with any new observations from the past 3 hours (i don't know the actual assimilation cycle off hand, it may be all new observations since 12z). the first guess field comes from the 6-hour forecast of the 12z NAM. it does use GFS as lateral boundary conditions, but HPC noted the discrepancies [i'm not comfortable enough calling them initialization errors...just because an assimilation system, in this case the one used to initialize the NAM and GFS, resolved features different than the Euro (although likely a better assimilation system on average) doesn't make it an initialization error, for sure] were over the Midwest, or within the NAM domain, so the GFS lateral boundary conditions shouldn't be causing any problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If the 18z Nam were to verify... I honestly wouldn't care if it snowed the rest of the year. Don't worry. It won't. I know that; and I'm drunk. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I dunno... the HPC is saying the Euro's data assimilation and initialization was superior to the GFS today. Well no sh*t... it always is. With no bad data I don't know how this is any different than usual? You mean would this have occurred normally? That's why I mentioned we can't blame everything on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If the 18z Nam were to verify... I honestly wouldn't care if it snowed the rest of the year. I'd prefer the 12z GFS, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If the 18z Nam were to verify... I honestly wouldn't care if it snowed the rest of the year. That's disgusting.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You mean would this have occurred normally? That's why I mentioned we can't blame everything on that. Yeah... I really want to hear more about the errors the NCEP is talking about. You'd always take the Euro's initialization over the GFS because it is superior. But at 00h/06h I don't see huge differences between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If 12z was not to be trusted, and 18z is also suspect, at what point can we start taking the models at face value? I mean, how long do those initialization errors carry over for? Can 00z be trusted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Does the 00z GFS last night showing the a similar solution and the Euro showing the same solution a couple days ago have any merit? Well the 00z gfs seemed within reach imo. The euro from 2 days ago with it closed off of Norfolk VA seemed far fetched and I wouldn't buy that right now. However, I didn't think 00z gfs was unresonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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