The Iceman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Already better than 12z... its already a win for us it's good that it didn't trend east but this run was most likely still affected by the bad data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You receive snow like 300 days of the year. Your odds of <4" are slim with this one. Yeah, today was one of them. I've bet on slim odds before. Thanks for the pep talk though. Merry Christmas!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It's definitely digging better with the trough at 42 HR and isn't as broad with the base of the trough, trough is already going negatively tilted at 42 HR. Even looks a bit better than the 12z GFS actually It's very touchy. I wonder if we pull it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 All that strung out vorticity from the lead s/w isn't helping. This is why the surface low is also strung out. Until this thing wraps up, and tilts more negative, we basically just have a frontal boundary off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 left hook at 54, big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow at 54 HR...everything is tucked more towards the coast. Pretty crazy negative tilt too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow way west at 54! West trend continues... Now its American Models Vs. Euro Vs. Global models. Its pretty remarkable how far west the NAM came in 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It's very touchy. I wonder if we pull it off. I'm taking the 18z solutions with the smallest grain of salt possible. Hopefully any issues are not present during the 0z runs...and I'd like to see something positive from the euro too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 left hook at 54, big hit Meh, idk if thats going to come far enough between 54-60. but definitely a huge trend to note. put it on the bottom of the ladder though, cause its infected with some data from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow way west at 54! West trend continues... Now its American Models Vs. Euro Vs. Global models. The Euro is a global model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 so people will say is the bad data.. I don't know what to think of it..looks good at least, and why is the bad data making it go west and not east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I don't think you were on when the 12z GFS came out. It was an incredible 30 minutes of celebrations and paying homage to the snow gods. And then....................................................the roof caved in on our igloos. I checked it out onnthe droid while X-mas shopping. GFS might not be totally out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 at 54 the low is well SW of 12z...cape and eastern mass most likely get slammed next frame. good to see it didn't trend back east...that's what i was most worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Practically onto Chatham..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is hilarious. It really is. I love the freakin' weather. Starting to feel an advisory event. Go America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is hilarious. thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 so people will say is the bad data.. I don't know what to think of it..looks good at least, and why is the bad data making it go west and not east Well something is happening to make for an earlier phase and allowing for the trough to take on a negative tilt early enough to help keep the storm tucked closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masswinter Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Definitely a tough one here...but not sure why everyone is giving up. Not sure I completely buy HPC throwing out the GFS because of initialization problems. GFS will always initialize worse than the ECMWF because of the technique used...yet usually the GFS does pretty well this time frame. A bit suprised that HPC is yet again going with an extreme solution...except this time an eastern one...while a couple days ago they followed the far western solution. NAM has been pretty useless lately..and thus I only look at it because its the first model out...I would not put much of any stock in its solution. The fact that 10 of the 16 15Z SREF eta/nmm/arw runs are west of the 12z NAM leads me to believe with high confidence the 12z NAM is too far west. Now the ECMWF is the problem model....as I cant rally explain its huge shift east. However given its bouncing around...while the EC ensemble mean has been nearly steady...makes me have some doubt on its solution. So at this time im leaning towards a 0z/6Z GFS compromise...meaning significant snows still probable eastern New England. Obviously still not very high confidence...but I would be surprised if areas Bos to PVD and southeast didn’t get a good 6-10" Just took a look at 18z NAM...and it does indeed go much further west. However as I said above...I wouldnt put too much into that solution. Other than maybe increasing my confidence of significant coastal snows a very small amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 BY tomorrow the gfs/nam will be up the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 so people will say is the bad data.. I don't know what to think of it..looks good at least, and why is the bad data making it go west and not east i mean the 18z does get new data I think as well as some 12z data I think...so a correction would of meant a slight east trend imo but we honestly won't know until 00z rolls out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Definitely a tough one here...but not sure why everyone is giving up. Not sure I completely buy HPC throwing out the GFS because of initialization problems. GFS will always initialize worse than the ECMWF because of the technique used...yet usually the GFS does pretty well this time frame. A bit suprised that HPC is yet again going with an extreme solution...except this time an eastern one...while a couple days ago they followed the far western solution. NAM has been pretty useless lately..and thus I only look at it because its the first model out...I would not put much of any stock in its solution. The fact that 10 of the 16 15Z SREF eta/nmm/arw runs are west of the 12z NAM leads me to believe with high confidence the 12z NAM is too far west. Now the ECMWF is the problem model....as I cant rally explain its huge shift east. However given its bouncing around...while the EC ensemble mean has been nearly steady...makes me have some doubt on its solution. So at this time im leaning towards a 0z/6Z GFS compromise...meaning significant snows still probable eastern New England. Obviously still not very high confidence...but I would be surprised if areas Bos to PVD and southeast didn’t get a good 6-10" Just took a look at 18z NAM...and it does indeed go much further west. However as I said above...I wouldnt put too much into that solution. Other than maybe increasing my confidence of significant coastal snows a very small amount. Welcome to the board, thank you for the insight. Always great to get more mets on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 BY tomorrow the gfs/nam will be up the Hudson. yeah haha it has the low on the cape with heavy heavy snow oustide 128 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Briz600 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 it's good that it didn't trend east but this run was most likely still affected by the bad data. This run looks good but where is it getting the bad data from ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The models are a lot of fun, and I'm loving this, but it's almost time to nowcast this thing. I am so glad I'm not someone who has to provide a forecast for this or stand in front of a camera. Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Holy Moly at 60! This is effin crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Can't disc hit even with baf ua Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 BY tomorrow the gfs/nam will be up the Hudson. Or to Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I mean its a massive bomb and left hook like i hinted at earlier on. I think this might be bigger for areas of maine rather then sne on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighPressure Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 BY tomorrow the gfs/nam will be up the Hudson. Enjoying my first Bud Lite of the day and it almost came out my nose with this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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