weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If anything the energy with the northern stream energy looks more positively tilted at 24 HR but it's also showing more vort. maxes...just what we need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 No problem! That's a great question...was actually wondering that myself. some of the sref's use gfs data to run so it could be affecting the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow at 36... look at how much further west and deeper the trough is at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 That and I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but I would throw away the 18Z runs. If the12Z is corrupt, I think the 18Z will be as well. Now, if 00Z is showing this, then we have (good) problems. 12z NAM had a miss... interested to see if 18z does as well. Using the 6h forecast it's running a whole new data assimilation so it will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 30 - really digging, energy stronger and holding itself much further back compared to 12z. heights on ec raised considerably. ridge looks still stronger out west. much digger. can it swing neg? 36 - still looks good energy is held back but not as close yet as 12z was to swinging negative. energy rounding down still stronger considerably at 5h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z NAM had a miss... interested to see if 18z does as well. Using the 6h forecast it's running a whole new data assimilation so it will be interesting. LOL, today has been great from a model watching perspective. This is classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wiz: Thanks for the shout out. My only question about the SREF: Does anyone know if that run is based on 12Z initialization data/RAOBS? Yeah. That 's why there are also reservations about the validity of the 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 That and I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but I would throw away the 18Z runs. If the12Z is corrupt, I think the 18Z will be as well. Now, if 00Z is showing this, then we have (good) problems. Yeah I really wouldn't put a while lot of stock into the 18z runs given what occurred with the 12z runs, there almost certainly be an issue with the 18z runs as well. Were just going to have to wait until the 0z runs come in and hope that there are no issues with the initialization of that data. I still think the probabilities are rather though for a decent hit this far west but it definitely can't be discounted right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Guys, remember to take 18z fwiw. It's possible we may have a "hangover" effect from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 30 - really digging, energy stronger and holding itself much further back compared to 12z. heights on ec raised considerably. ridge looks still stronger out west. much digger. can it swing neg? 36 - still looks good energy is held back but not as close yet as 12z was to swinging negative. energy rounding down still stronger considerably at 5h Its weird cause the NAM actually looks better than the 12z GFS at 500 through 36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 LOL, today has been great from a model watching perspective. This is classic. To be honest I don't remember a day like this in my nearly 15 years of model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 36 - surface low placement is only slightly east of 12z, however, precip shield is noticeably a bit west. next 12 hours of frames vital. gotta see how it handles northern stream junk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Guys, remember to take 18z fwiw. It's possible we may have a "hangover" effect from 12z. That's why I'm more interested in the 18z NAM, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 some of the sref's use gfs data to run so it could be affecting the outcome. Alright, good to know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Thanks, Bob. A couple questions: Are SREF's impacted by the HPC initilization earlier? Is there anything really useful for them at 78hrs or is there just a mild interest to see if there's any semblence of trend? TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Kind of looks like it's going negatively tilted at 36 HR...or at least beginning the steps of doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Guys, remember to take 18z fwiw. It's possible we may have a "hangover" effect from 12z. I think if things trend better at 18z, we need to take a closer look at how much the errors actually effect the solutions outcome. But I'm with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yeah RE: the positive tilt. Because it's diggier and further west, we have earlier anticyclonic wave breaking over south central Canada which inherently causes the downstream trough to have a bias toward a positive tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Holy sh*t SREFs well west of 12z Almost bring 1 inch line to me! They are usually underdone with the precip I htink you're looking at the same .5 line I am that's nearby. What town in NH are you in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 ummmm why did HPC say after talking about nam and gfs short comings with initialization that SREF mean would help sort out uncertainty. I mean isn't it clear with that the SREF's are a red flag waving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 To be honest I don't remember a day like this in my nearly 15 years of model watching. It's the foreign models vs american right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 36 - surface low placement is only slightly east of 12z, however, precip shield is noticeably a bit west. next 12 hours of frames vital. gotta see how it handles northern stream junk surface low looks slightly west to me at 36. hard to tell though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 surface low looks slightly west to me at 36. hard to tell though. Yeah it was ever so slightly west at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 going negative at 42...gonna be real close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 42 elongated low slightly west of 12z. trough going negative...it's goin to be close. looks sharper as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 42 - can you say strung out? its been overall so much diggier but its still really held back and not negatively swung. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I don't have access to viewing the ensemble members but I'd be willing to bet that a good handful of the 50 show a strong hit relatively close to the 12z GFS - probably around 5%. So while the mean has been pretty consistent it would be a good exercise to look for any clustering before considering what the relative odds are of a good hit versus a mean-type track or more of a miss. I generally think you're right that the ensm mean is the most likely track but it seems more detailed analysis could provide a better answer on how the ensm get to their mean. The funny thing about this discussion--and something we all need to keep in mind--is folks have a very different perspective on what "a good hit" is. For Rick and folks west of the river, we'll use a track across the Cape a s agreat hit. That's the kiss of death to many here. Expect similar differnece of opinoins for our friends in Fairfield County compared to folks toward PWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 going negative at 42...gonna be real close Already better than 12z... its already a win for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 42 elongated low slightly west of 12z. trough going negative...it's goin to be close. looks sharper as well I don't like the look of it at 5h.. it may swing too late. if anything i think we hope for a hook on this run. i may be speaking too soon. need to see 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It's definitely digging better with the trough at 42 HR and isn't as broad with the base of the trough, trough is already going negatively tilted at 42 HR. Even looks a bit better than the 12z GFS actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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