December 26-27 Storm Threat

[Ginx snewx]

Ryan saw the same thing on the Euro, very interesting powder keg, like I said this AM, need everything to slow. I mean Euro goes from GaSC to Nova Scotia in24 hours, seems awfully fast.

[TalcottWx]

Why?

sref's are usually not too far off

[snowNH]

Its weird because typically the SREFs are usually SE and underdone with precip

[cpickett79]

15z SREF goes WAY west

you can't keep a good weenie down

WITH THE FINAL OUTCOME

MOST BELIEVED TO LIE BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH ALL

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF MEAN/GEFS MEAN (EXCEPT NOT

THE 12Z VERSION)/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO CONSIDERED USEFUL TO

ADDRESS THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY.

[Boston-winter08]

18z NAM heights raised in the east, better ridge out west

[CT Rain]

Ryan saw the same thing on the Euro, very interesting powder keg, like I said this AM, need everything to slow. I mean Euro goes from GaSC to Nova Scotia in24 hours, seems awfully fast.

I honestly am so torn. I need to go with the other globals (UK/GGEM/Euro) that have been steadfast in a miss (though have come west with a glancing blow). But I just have a pit in my stomach. The ensembles SREF and GEFS are designed to mitigate errors in initialization so it's just really weird to me.

This is one of the hardest day 2 and 3 forecasts I remember making in a long time.

[Boston-winter08]

18z NAM heights raised in the east, better ridge out west

more northern stream energy on the back side of the trof as well that holds back a bit more...good sign

[weatherwiz]

Meh it's the SREF's ...not a big fan of them outside of 36 HR's...sometimes even 24 hrs.

[Boston-winter08]

NAM should deliver the goods...much more digging, the question is if the initialization errors are still present

[mattmfm]

I honestly am so torn. I need to go with the other globals (UK/GGEM/Euro) that have been steadfast in a miss (though have come west with a glancing blow). But I just have a pit in my stomach. The ensembles SREF and GEFS are designed to mitigate errors in initialization so it's just really weird to me.

This is one of the hardest day 2 and 3 forecasts I remember making in a long time.

I think the SREFs are showing the ultimate uncertainty. The mean SLP is ridiculously spread out, lending credence to some of the solutions being even further west while others are total duds. Really haven't seen something as incredibly nauseating in years. The run to run consistency is nonexistent.

Last place I'd want to be is on the 5pm evening news the night before Christmas.

[snowNH]

Heights raised... energy dropping.

[TalcottWx]

Through 12 - backside energy driving from plains a bit stronger. things look a bit sharper at 5h.

[weatherwiz]

I think we need to stop the "guessing" on what the models are going to do down the road based on what a certain panel looks like...people have not had that great success doing so and all it ends up doing is making things really confusing.

[free_man]

[MaineJayhawk]

I think we need to stop the "guessing" on what the models are going to do down the road based on what a certain panel looks like...people have not had that great success doing so and all it ends up doing is making things really confusing.

+2

Just mention what a panel shows relative to past runs, imo.

[TalcottWx]

through 18 - backside energy definitely looks stronger and 'diggier' coming down further south then the 12z. looking sharper, s/w is stronger. a bit more developed. a dot of 564 showing up. lol

[Boston-winter08]

I think we need to stop the "guessing" on what the models are going to do down the road based on what a certain panel looks like...people have not had that great success doing so and all it ends up doing is making things really confusing.

sry bout that...i'll leave the play-by-play to weathafella

[mattmfm]

perfect.

[Southland Wx]

Wiz: Thanks for the shout out.

My only question about the SREF: Does anyone know if that run is based on 12Z initialization data/RAOBS?

[weatherwiz]

+2

Just mention what a panel shows relative to past runs, imo.

Agreed.

Just b/c the model shows MORE digging of the trough and higher heights out in the East DOES NOT mean the track will automatically be further west...there isa lot more to it than this. It's a help but it's certainly no guarantee.

[CoastalWx]

Euro ensembles about same as 00z.

[Boston-winter08]

Well, compared to 12z NAM, trof axis about 50 miles west on 18z and heights are higher along east coast

[CT Rain]

Euro ensembles about same as 00z.

And 12z ensemble is identical to the op

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Lol new nam

[TalcottWx]

24 - energy through the plans is all around stronger again like the last panel and its diving south to the s/w. looks like the energy improvement might have to do with the stronger ridge depicted. heights are raised on the EC compared to previous runs. s/w looks only a couple of miles quicker. all in all it looks to phase later on nicely. Still unsure of these improvements will lead to a better solution. many positives so far.

[SouthCoastMA]

Euro ensembles about same as 00z.

Were they west of the OP or about the same?

[weatherwiz]

Wiz: Thanks for the shout out.

My only question about the SREF: Does anyone know if that run is based on 12Z initialization data/RAOBS?

No problem!

That's a great question...was actually wondering that myself.

[CoastalWx]

Were they west of the OP or about the same?

Almost identical to the op, esp by hr 72.

[Southland Wx]

No problem!

That's a great question...was actually wondering that myself.

That and I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but I would throw away the 18Z runs. If the12Z is corrupt, I think the 18Z will be as well. Now, if 00Z is showing this, then we have (good) problems.

[Boston-winter08]

out to 36, eerily similar to 12z GFS:

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/model_loops/18znam_pcpl.php