December 26-27 Storm Threat

[cpickett79]

Giving up on what? Therein lies the problem. Never get yourself emotionally vested into one model solution. There is a clear consensus coming on board for this upcoming storm and it does not involve substantial snows for just about everyone except maybe CC.

i'm certainly not emotionally invested as far as what i think will happen with storm track. There is a difference in seperating your emotional joy for snow and what you think will happen with track. and i don't think it takes much critical thinking to separate the two. I don't know what you call substantial and i would argue there is no clear consensus. And the biggest reason i say that is ...EVEN with a CLOSE consensus 75 miles either way makes a HUGE difference for ORH, BOS PVD etc. so there is tons to be worked out for the snowfall totals of each and we may not know until sunday or sunday nite. i.e could be nowcast.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I have to say... the Euro isn't all that far from the GFS.It closes off the 500mb low near Asheville, NC.... but it remains positively tilited. It's amazing that even with a much better phase the Euro is still east. Won't take much to get a more exciting solution than the Euro shows.

Yeah, but what about it's associated ensm. which have been steadfast?

[moneypitmike]

The post I was responding to was pointing out consistency in the GFS ensembles; I figured this was threading several runs together; I haven't been keeping up very much with this one.

Hence, if the 12z GFS ensembles from yesterday matched -- relatively -- the 00z ensembles and even the allegedly false as Hell 12z GFS vittles, I am curious as to what that broad stroke painted.

I've been reading the "similar ensemble" mentions as agreement within the 12z members.

[moneypitmike]

Mike, c'mon man, weenies are just trying to find a reason to believe, regardless of how flawed the logic may be. We're still in the game BTW.

I don't think you were on when the 12z GFS came out. It was an incredible 30 minutes of celebrations and paying homage to the snow gods. And then....................................................the roof caved in on our igloos.

[MaineJayhawk]

Well you don't have to dismiss it. I'd be more leary of it but I won't dismiss it.

If it's known it will contain faulty info, how can you use it as guidance?

[mattmfm]

HPC votes for a 12z Euro/6z GFS compromise: so basically 4-8" WST-BOS on east, 6-12" EWB-PYM on east. 1-3" west of there back to HFD.

[MaineJayhawk]

From Southland's wx blog. Discussion can be found here:

http://adiabat.wordp...-day-storm-tko/

Unacceptable.

[mattb65]

I have to say... the Euro isn't all that far from the GFS.It closes off the 500mb low near Asheville, NC.... but it remains positively tilited. It's amazing that even with a much better phase the Euro is still east. Won't take much to get a more exciting solution than the Euro shows.

If kevin were here I think this post would be pretty much a LOCK for a major blizzard for his back yard.

[RICoastalMan]

It's not what any of us want, but it's a reasonable forecast considering the bulk of model data.

[cpickett79]

on allan's weather page EURO ens come out at 430

but don't the met's get them much sooner? sorry if i missed or forgot this time...but when are they out (for mets)

[weatherwiz]

Unacceptable.

?

[Baroclinic Zone]

15z SREF's are rolling out.

[MaineJayhawk]

?

Coating - 1" imby .... unacceptable.

[MaineJayhawk]

15z SREF's are rolling out.

HECS, I'm sure.

[moneypitmike]

Yeah, but what about it's associated ensm. which have been steadfast?

Touche.

[Boston-winter08]

is it just me or a SREFS WAY west?

[ENYsnow]

15z SREFS well west of 09z

[weatherwiz]

Coating - 1" imby .... unacceptable.

ahhh

[CT Rain]

If it's known it will contain faulty info, how can you use it as guidance?

a ) I'm not... I'm just saying a more amped up solution than the 12z op Euro is possible... maybe likely

b ) The data isn't faulty the data assimilation produced a seemingly faulty initialization scheme.

[Baroclinic Zone]

[snowNH]

Holy sh*t SREFs well west of 12z

Almost bring 1 inch line to me! They are usually underdone with the precip

[cpickett79]

got to like ryan's optomism regarding the euro closing off early and not taking much to get a better solution.

do we remember models on saturday for last weekend cape blizzard.

[friendwh]

15z SREF goes WAY west

[Baroclinic Zone]

Gotta run gang. Will be on later but if I miss anyone, have a Merry Christmas!

[mattb65]

Yeah, but what about it's associated ensm. which have been steadfast?

I don't have access to viewing the ensemble members but I'd be willing to bet that a good handful of the 50 show a strong hit relatively close to the 12z GFS - probably around 5%. So while the mean has been pretty consistent it would be a good exercise to look for any clustering before considering what the relative odds are of a good hit versus a mean-type track or more of a miss.

I generally think you're right that the ensm mean is the most likely track but it seems more detailed analysis could provide a better answer on how the ensm get to their mean.

[weatherwiz]

Definitely some pretty good members in there but still some pretty lousy ones.

[friendwh]

[Kbosch]

Score on the SREFs. Some members would be fantastic solutions for everyone. Wow.

[TalcottWx]

Holy sh*t SREFs well west of 12z

Almost bring 1 inch line to me! They are usually underdone with the precip

SREF's show why in such a delicate situation with all the intialization errors and flopping you keep an eye on things. Certainly an interesting turn. Does the hpc examine the sref's solution?

[MaineJayhawk]