December 26-27 Storm Threat

[Clinch Leatherwood]

SUNY MM5, just SE of the BM within the ens mean tracks.

[CoastalWx]

Its probably safe to toss a GFS type solution which takes most areas west of ORH out of the game decent snow....to the east though, the storm threat is very much still alive.

It's important not to latch onto anything concrete yet if you are in the eastern half of SNE. SREF probabilities (usually skiddish at this time range) actually have some decent 4"+ (and even 8"+) in E and SE areas.

Yeah for all we know the 12z ensembles could tick west of 00z. Probably a good bet that we see more wobbles in models over the next 24 hours (although hopefully no 150 miles shifts). Each wobble could be a difference of 4" or more for some.

[Zeus]

A lot like the OP GFS which NCEP said we should disregard.

If the EC had the same errors at 12z and if those are removed at 0z are we now at a total miss? LOL.

Who cares, Merry Xmas, and let the heads roll for those that didn't data check somewhere along the line.

I'd like clear weather on Monday.

[ORH_wxman]

12z GFS snow map to be archived

[leesun]

The agreement between the GFS ensembles in mind boggling to me, initialization errors or not. Have never seen that! That tells me that at very least this is trending west. We still have 48h to trend this a little more west. GFS OP not out of the question but not likely either. EC op may be a wobble, have to wait for the ensembles.

Yeah for all we know the 12z ensembles could tick west of 00z. Probably a good bet that we see more wobbles in models over the next 24 hours (although hopefully no 150 miles shifts). Each wobble could be a difference of 4" or more for some.

[ChrisM]

12z GFS snow map to be archived

I'll take the two feet and run, see ya!

[CoastalWx]

The agreement between the GFS ensembles in mind boggling to me, initialization errors or not. Have never seen that! That tells me that at very least this is trending west. We still have 48h to trend this a little more west. GFS OP not out of the question but not likely either. EC op may be a wobble, have to wait for the ensembles.

Well you're much more confident than I am.

[dendrite]

12z GFS snow map to be archived

Cool...I get downsloped.

[snowNH]

Will, Not saying it hill happen, but what if the GFS holds serve at 18z?

[weatherwiz]

Wow...that map gets the Litchfield Hills pretty damn good

I get like 70% of my seasonal snowfall total from last year

[weatherwiz]

Will, Not saying it hill happen, but what if the GFS holds serve at 18z?

Toss it

[dendrite]

Will, Not saying it hill happen, but what if the GFS holds serve at 18z?

The run uses some previous data from the run before it. I wouldn't put much faith in the 18z either.

[weatherwiz]

Well I suppose if there is nothing further west on the Euro to give me any meaningful QPF I may as well just go get drunk with the family tomorrow instead of staying home.

[CoastalWx]

The agreement between the GFS ensembles in mind boggling to me, initialization errors or not. Have never seen that! That tells me that at very least this is trending west. We still have 48h to trend this a little more west. GFS OP not out of the question but not likely either. EC op may be a wobble, have to wait for the ensembles.

I think a trend west from yesterday could still be real, but all we are saying is that the gfs position seems very suspect...and likely is. I mean a 50 mile shift is more what I was thinking as realistic. I didn't like the euro run today, but I honestly have no idea how or if it was affected by all these issues. It would seem rather stable imo, but I'm not HPC. We have 60-72 hrs so all options are there. Models will wobble from run to run, but we are all hanging by a thread since we are close to a sharp western cutoff. For all we know, the 00z euro could go a little west....or maybe it goes east. Seems hard to go against the ec ensembles as of late.

[CoastalWx]

Will, Not saying it hill happen, but what if the GFS holds serve at 18z?

Wouldn't be shocked at a massive shift east at 18z from 12z.

[skierinvermont]

I think most of the major disagreement will be resolved by 00z since most of the critical differences are apparent by 12-24 hours.

[weathafella]

I think we all want it slower. This run is awful for all of us.

What about the seal on the rock 30 miles east of PVC?

[Logan11]

I'll take my 10-12" on that and run. ....actually I'll take 1-2" out of this thing.

People in southeast NE are getting a bit greedy, but maybe I would also. They are still well in line for 6" or more probably.

Cool...I get downsloped.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

I am waiting until the 12z EURO run for tomorrow afternoon before jumping to any conclusions. TAN said watches will be issued by tomorrow if models came to better agreement, problem is there is no strong consistency with the EURO or GFS, the ensembles are consistent until today's 12z GEFS means. I would take a EC ensemble mean track from 00z. My best guess at a track is 35n/75w to 41n/69w for the SLP center. Question becomes intensity at this point and QPF output.

[Logan11]

This run was certainly much further west than 6Z, but as I recall the 0Z GFS was quite a good hit for most of NE with measurable back into far eastern NY. So it's not like the model hasn't had some westerly solutions before this run.

The run uses some previous data from the run before it. I wouldn't put much faith in the 18z either.

[Ice Warrior commander]

What about the seal on the rock 30 miles east of PVC?

with the SUNY MM5 track, that seal would be in an awesome place. Just as long as no P-type issues out there.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

SREF showed some 8"+ probs, mostly for interior SE MA as of their 9z runs. Again not an ensemble mean I would take for my forecasted snowfall map verbatim, but something I would consider. They did a horrible job with the snowstorm last Monday.

[ROOSTA]

REALITY SUCKS FACE IT, IT'S OVA before it has even begun. To much overwhelming evidence.

What a way to learn.

What I've learned is never ever again will I waste my time model hugging. Next...

[Logan11]

In the land of the GFS anything is possible. It could well go east at 18Z only to come back west at 0Z.

Wouldn't be shocked at a massive shift east at 18z from 12z.

[ski MRG]

Wouldn't be shocked at a massive shift east at 18z from 12z.

I don't know about massive shift but a correction east seems quite possible if not likely. However, for me, the mere fact that a deep cyclone will be in our vicinity is enough to warrant further interest. A wobble here, a wobble there and we're into the goods. I really wouldn't be surprised if it does end up tucking inside the BM in the end.

[Logan11]

That lesson will last about a week maybe.

REALITY SUCKS FACE IT, IT'S OVA before it has even begun. To much overwhelming evidence.

What a way to learn.

What I've learned is never ever again will I waste my time model hugging. Next...

[snowNH]

REALITY SUCKS FACE IT, IT'S OVA before it has even begun. To much overwhelming evidence.

What a way to learn.

What I've learned is never ever again will I waste my time model hugging. Next...

This is not over yet at all.

[dryslot]

That lesson will last until the next model run

I agree.......

[CoastalWx]

I don't know about massive shift but a correction east seems quite possible if not likely. However, for me, the mere fact that a deep cyclone will be in our vicinity is enough to warrant further interest. A wobble here, a wobble there and we're into the goods. I really wouldn't be surprised if it does end up tucking inside the BM in the end.

Well 150 miles would be pretty massive, but I said "shocked" not expected. Models work buy incorporating previous run's data so I'm not sure how valuable the 18z run will be.

[cpickett79]

so does this mean all the GFS ensembles are tossed.

got home looked at GFS ensembles.....wet myself then read the HPC message.....GF caught me dangling from 3'rd story window and reeled me back in.

do we toss the EC as well or no cause that is OTS

these are trying times for weenies.