weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Let's blame the bad data...lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yeah it can't overcome the positive tilt even though its a bit slower. Not a good sign for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is why you have to wait until the rest of the guidance comes in. Onto the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It sounds like a big fookin' jump - do we buy that much of a shift? It'll land somewhere in the middle of the Euro and GFS perhaps? I don't think I buy much of anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Ec ens ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Glad I kept low expectations here. Looking this will be like a December NOT to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yup i had enough fun from 11-1 that i don't need a 12-18 monster. We just cant get the big one for NE (Or the moderate one either) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 No one has much in the way of slow downs this run. I'm out...not sure it was worth wasting 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Let's blame the bad data...lol.. Just going to post that...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Unfortunately I'm off to SRI for the rest of today... no wi-fi there either See y'all tonight. Too bad about this first part of the Euro, but who knows,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Ec ens ftw Will and I were saying how ensembles (esp EC) have been steadfast the entire time. Aside from wobbles here and there..so far, they have performed well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 We need some timeouts in here jesus christ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Make that 2. 40/68. Near whiff. Cape gets 3-6. ROFL. Will be incredibly interesting to read NCEP at 230ish on the EC. I'm betting they tossed or adjusted for the errors that NCEP didn't catch. I think I'm jumping ship. I'm furious at myself for not doing what we did in the ne.weather and IRC days in checking inits, Justin, Brian, Ryan were oustanding at doing that back then. I'm pretty confident these errors existed prior to the 12z run. I bet if someone goes back and looks at HPC analysis versus inits they'll see some differences for the last day up NW. Anyway, the off hour runs seem to level these changes out and seeing as I think the EC is no better or worse than the GFS lately, won't worry about it until Santa time. What a freaking disaster. I worry now the near miss/slight graze models are right and if I had to go and put out a forecast the .5 would be shifted down to extreme SEMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Will and I were saying how ensembles (esp EC) have been steadfast the entire time. Aside from wobbles here and there..so far, they have performed well. So trust them and look askance at OP and Americans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 We'll see... LOL The Euro isn't Dr. No anymore this year. It's Dr. Maybe. Unfortunately I'm off to SRI for the rest of today... no wi-fi there either See y'all tonight. Too bad about this first part of the Euro, but who knows,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Still, I'm amazed at the agreement among the GFS ensembles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Heh...what an EC buzzkill. Nada for MHT-FIT-BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Everything is slower this run. I suppose that's possibly good for some of us but awful for NYC southward. I think we all want it slower. This run is awful for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Ec ens ftw Looks like this tracks a bit E of the EC ens mean when toggling it...hopefully the ens mean has the better idea...would be a big difference for the eastern areas. Its amazing how consistent the EC ens mean has been...basically oscillating between about the BM and 75 mi E....for the last 5 or 6 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Anyway, time to question whether these west solutions were being influenced for the last few days. The most discussed 4" snowstorm in the history of mankind may haunt me. NCEP updated THE NEW UKMET/CANADIAN ARE DIFFICULT TO EVALUATE FOR INITIALIZATION SINCE WE RECEIVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF DATA. HOWEVER...THEIR SOLUTIONS LIE WITHIN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ONCE THE INDIVIDUAL TROUGHS PHASE TO PRODUCE THE DEEPENING LOW OFFSHORE...WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE CASE. THUS...INITIAL RECOMMENDATIONS ARE PRESERVED WITH CONTINUITY MOST PREFERRED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Heh...what an EC buzzkill. Nada for MHT-FIT-BDL. GFS shows 12-18 Euro shows nothing 60 hours out... Good models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Heh...what an EC buzzkill. Nada for MHT-FIT-BDL. This looks to end up being the second least snowiest December for BDL...I think like 1953 or 1957 or something had like 0.1'' lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GFS shows 12-18 Euro shows nothing 60 hours out... Good models You can't evaluate model performance on a day like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Still, I'm amazed at the agreement among the GFS ensembles! What did those look like? I'm just catching up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Everyone is jumping ship because the EURO shows a bad run and the GFS had bad data....wow...and the low hasn't even gotten to the coast yet.... hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What did those look like? I'm just catching up. A lot like the OP GFS which NCEP said we should disregard. If the EC had the same errors at 12z and if those are removed at 0z are we now at a total miss? LOL. Who cares, Merry Xmas, and let the heads roll for those that didn't data check somewhere along the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Everyone is jumping ship because the EURO shows a bad run and the GFS had bad data....wow...and the low hasn't even gotten to the coast yet.... hmmm... Its probably safe to toss a GFS type solution which takes most areas west of ORH out of the game decent snow....to the east though, the storm threat is very much still alive. It's important not to latch onto anything concrete yet if you are in the eastern half of SNE. SREF probabilities (usually skiddish at this time range) actually have some decent 4"+ (and even 8"+) in E and SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxologist Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This ought to go over well...top analog based on this morning's 12Z error-filled gfs run. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=060&flg=new&dt=1996010806 Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Everyone is jumping ship because the EURO shows a bad run and the GFS had bad data....wow...and the low hasn't even gotten to the coast yet.... hmmm... Who cares whether a run is "good" or "bad". The most important thing as we are now getting into the short term is that we have been seeing some pretty solid agreement now on the Euro ens and despite what the Euro showed a few days ago it has come around to be more consistent with a track this is pretty darn close to the benchmark. This run still hits eastern sections but with not as much snow. We can all probably agree now this will get eastern sections and places as far west as ORH will see something out of this...the question then soon will become how much snow. The wind threat will have to be watched closely as well, especially if you're looking at moderate snowfall accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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