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December 26-27 Storm Threat

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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snowNH

snowNH

Posted
Posted

I think the fact that the other globals are so far east of it is a big red flag IMHO. They are inching west, but in order to believe a track well inside in the BM, you'd like to at least some other guidance remotely close. The Euro may be that piece of guidance. But if the Euro is something like last night (or even slightly W), it will confirm to me that the GFS is likely out to lunch.

We can't solve the phase issues in our head like the models can, so there is no use pretending we know if its going to phase like the GFS or not just by eyeballing satellite or maps (at least this early in the game)....one thing we can go on is longer wave trough positions and experience...and modelogy...and those things generally point to the GFS solution being too far west.

Dammit Will, I hate it when you bring us back to reality. You're are probably right. I'm sticking with 3-6 up here

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

12"+ to Ray..lol

Well we'll see what the euro does I guess. This by no means ends any west trend threat..it just might not be the 150 miles jump that the gfs had.

The only thing we can say for certain is WE DON'T KNOW. It really is useless to speculate as to whether a trend would continue, reverse, or show what the erroneous run actually showed.

To do otherwise is a farce. Let me check that--for those of you who have the skill set to articulate a forecast based on your own maps and weather knowledge, you can make educated forecasts. Beyond that, we just don't know and can't pretend to know what the 12z runs would show.

Sorry--but them's the facts. GIGO. Simple.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Dammit Will, I hate it when you bring us back to reality. You're are probably right. I'm sticking with 3-6 up here

We can still see a pretty good hit even if we see a solution east of the GFS.

Heck, the GFS might be onto something, but most signs point to it being too far west.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

GFS may be full of it.... But I don't know that I trust the Euro as the ultimate arbiter anymore. It has been erratic with this system. I don't feel like I should take the 12Z Euro as golden - such as in past years.

I think the fact that the other globals are so far east of it is a big red flag IMHO. They are inching west, but in order to believe a track well inside in the BM, you'd like to at least some other guidance remotely close. The Euro may be that piece of guidance. But if the Euro is something like last night (or even slightly W), it will confirm to me that the GFS is likely out to lunch.

We can't solve the phase issues in our head like the models can, so there is no use pretending we know if its going to phase like the GFS or not just by eyeballing satellite or maps (at least this early in the game)....one thing we can go on is longer wave trough positions and experience...and modelogy...and those things generally point to the GFS solution being too far west.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

It would be folly to vest too much interest in this run of the EC until after NCEP comments on it around 230 in the updated diagnostic, just my .02 based on what they said about the 0z EC not being very good. We are talking about the two major features that dig down into this trough that on the GFS were much further SW and stronger. This isn't just about 500mb placement either, I don't think I've ever seen a case where it went to this extreme and we're talking about many different levels of the atmosphere. Very cryptic wording as they don't go on to say exactly what the errors were - features stronger, larger, weaker?

There's hope maybe the EC folk caught this prior to running the model but who knows.

INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC

QUANTITIES...INCLUDING HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS/RH...ARE EVIDENT IN

BOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS WITH SMALL BUT LIKELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE

TROUGHS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA ALONG WITH

SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THESE AREAS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY

RESOLVED OR PREDICTED WELL BY THE 00Z ECMWF

So do the EC folks use the same data, but saw the GFS was weird, so they could potentially catch it before initializing their run?

Wonder what happened...

If they didn't catch the whoopsie before starting it, will they issue some type of statement to take this run with a grain of salt?

Anyway, I like what Wes said in the main forum...

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

The last forecast a lot of people will see until XMas night was the noon forecast. Total disaster.

I worry that NCEP has not caught these errors for the last day or two and that the other models could be more right. I won't feel better until post 0z tonight.

Wait--how long ago did the errors exist? I thought it was only with the 12z run.

Also, why would the EURO (or any other foreign model) be impacted by what happens at NCEP?

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skierinvermont

skierinvermont

Posted
Posted

GFS overlay on Euro.. Euro colors. Note the western ridge is more amplified on Euro, 2) slightly less digging of trough esp. around western Missouri, 3) very slightly higher heights in the east.

Too early to tell what it all means. Agree with Jerry though.. my guess is slightly east because of the less digging. And because Jerry has mad 500 skillz

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Absolutely. Any data organization--government or otherwise--survives because of the accuracy and reliability of what they produce. Their error has to be recognized lest the resultant forecasts risk inaccuracy.

Plus, there's more at stake with their products than just a coastal US storm.

The only way that logic would make sense is if they really believe a crippling snowstorm was coming to the EC. Otherwise it's the stuff for 24.

FWIW, the 0 and 1h RUC and water vapor would probably indicate there are so slight differences with the handling of those features. With the ND s/w, it's tiny. With the more important feature there's no doubt it's a little less steep on approach/slightly weaker. But it's not really a huge error from watching the RUC inits at this range over the years. It's pretty much normal actually.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

The only way that logic would make sense is if they really believe a crippling snowstorm was coming to the EC. Otherwise it's the stuff for 24.

FWIW, the 0 and 1h RUC and water vapor would probably indicate there are so slight differences with the handling of those features. With the ND s/w, it's tiny. With the more important feature there's no doubt it's a little less steep on approach/slightly weaker. But it's not really a huge error from watching the RUC inits at this range over the years. It's pretty much normal actually.

Respectfully disagree. But--we can't ever know. So, let's not dwell upon it.

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