weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I have no clue, and not sure about the euro either, so take everything fwiw. They state that the gfs had problems with vorticity and RH fields up in the Dakotas. Is this why the gfs jumped?? We don't know. NCEP basically said to take these runs with caution. That's all. What did the local mets say specifically? I never watch....maybe Harv sometimes but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 So GEFS are taint too? La Epic NCEP disarray on probably the busiest day of the year for going to Grandmas house down south. Yes, but to what degree? It's possible the west outliers had perturbations that would have negated the errors at init. If there are some wide right and some extreme left the trick will be figuring out which ones zeroed down the errors. If I understand the process correctly this could have potentially been caught prior to the models being run. This is normally when they'd adjust an ob or delete it. No idea what happened there, what a shame. Like Scott I'm also not sold it had an epic impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 The ironic thing is Kevin is so quick to trash the GFS, but as soon as it shows a big hit he hits it like a hooker in Vegas. Epitome of a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Bad data or no that looks like decent ensemble agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What did the local mets say specifically? I never watch....maybe Harv sometimes but that's it. Channel 4 had 12+ out to b/w 128 and 495, 12 from that area to 25 miles west of worcester, 6+ out to the berks, and less outside of Mass into albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighPressure Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What did the local mets say specifically? I never watch....maybe Harv sometimes but that's it. Dr. Mel (WTNH) went with 3-5" with a chance to double that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I have no clue, and not sure about the euro either, so take everything fwiw. They state that the gfs had problems with vorticity and RH fields up in the Dakotas. Is this why the gfs jumped?? We don't know. NCEP basically said to take these runs with caution. That's all. Thanks, would be great if a jump like this happens, we have had jumps go the other way at this time many many many times. Nice to see everything else go back west, should be great weekend to drink egg nog, eat ham and pie, watch the joy of kids faces as they open presents and track a storm when there is time. HO HO HO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Could the initialization errors have occured to the point where all of the Ensemble members have a major amplified storm system? Quite possible. Seems like that is the case. To the point where Cape Cod, MA turns to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What did the local mets say specifically? I never watch....maybe Harv sometimes but that's it. Well one was pretty bullish with over a foot back towards 495. I don't know what others did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 What did the local mets say specifically? I never watch....maybe Harv sometimes but that's it. I don't have the luxury of watching the Boston stations anymore with DirecTV. I'm in the PVD market so I have those stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 My wife will be unable to fly into Boston Sunday night (arrival around 10:30PM). That's unfortunate but better her away than me. If you can't be with the one you love, love the one you're with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What did the local mets say specifically? I never watch....maybe Harv sometimes but that's it. Ch7, Dylan Dryer said that the storm may be closer BUT (kudos for this) there were problems with the models so things are uncertain. Ch4, Some guy, said it could be a big storm based on the latest models. Lots of waffling etc on both forecasts and told to stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Individual GEFS members...fwiw Essentially every member is a huge hit -- it's gotta be wrong! isn't this what we were dreaming of when the euro was spitting out those historic runs ... how crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Regardless of the possible errors the ensembles are in really good agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow the GEFS ensemble members are incredible. I think that with data initialization problems ensembles should mute the effect... but clearly not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Ok i'm off to run erramds... will be at work by 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Bad data or no that looks like decent ensemble agreement. Yea but one whores puddy fart in SD screwed the whole pooch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I cringed when I saw joe joyce put up that weenie snowfall map; thought he was more reserved than that "JOE JOYCE NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 A lot of them look pretty far west to me. Yes, but to what degree? It's possible the west outliers had perturbations that would have negated the errors at init. If there are some wide right and some extreme left the trick will be figuring out which ones zeroed down the errors. If I understand the process correctly this could have potentially been caught prior to the models being run. This is normally when they'd adjust an ob or delete it. No idea what happened there, what a shame. Like Scott I'm also not sold it had an epic impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Bad data or no that looks like decent ensemble agreement. They do Jerry, but until the Euro can confirm or deny, I'd take them all with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Will weren't you looking for at least one global to support the GFS, does the JMA count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 All I can say is ..the God's Country people like this trend. Will weren't you looking for at least one global to support the GFS, does the JMA count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Ok i'm off to run erramds... will be at work by 2 Good luck with today., Looks like a challenging public forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Get your F5 fingers ready Euro has initialized... positive thoughts... positive thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 http://boston.cbslocal.com/2010/12/24/atmospheric-waiting-game/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Ok i'm off to run erramds... will be at work by 2 It's ok, you can say it.. we know you mean Christmas shopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I am actually wondering... If the GFS didn't show a bomb.. and there still were initialization errors... would HPC even have said anything to us that there was init. errors? Absolutely. Any data organization--government or otherwise--survives because of the accuracy and reliability of what they produce. Their error has to be recognized lest the resultant forecasts risk inaccuracy. Plus, there's more at stake with their products than just a coastal US storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Will weren't you looking for at least one global to support the GFS, does the JMA count? I think the fact that the other globals are so far east of it is a big red flag IMHO. They are inching west, but in order to believe a track well inside in the BM, you'd like to at least some other guidance remotely close. The Euro may be that piece of guidance. But if the Euro is something like last night (or even slightly W), it will confirm to me that the GFS is likely out to lunch. We can't solve the phase issues in our head like the models can, so there is no use pretending we know if its going to phase like the GFS or not just by eyeballing satellite or maps (at least this early in the game)....one thing we can go on is longer wave trough positions and experience...and modelogy...and those things generally point to the GFS solution being too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It would be folly to vest too much interest in this run of the EC until after NCEP comments on it around 230 in the updated diagnostic, just my .02 based on what they said about the 0z EC not being very good. We are talking about the two major features that dig down into this trough that on the GFS were much further SW and stronger. This isn't just about 500mb placement either, I don't think I've ever seen a case where it went to this extreme and we're talking about many different levels of the atmosphere. Very cryptic wording as they don't go on to say exactly what the errors were - features stronger, larger, weaker? There's hope maybe the EC folk caught this prior to running the model but who knows. INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC QUANTITIES...INCLUDING HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS/RH...ARE EVIDENT IN BOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS WITH SMALL BUT LIKELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA ALONG WITH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THESE AREAS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY RESOLVED OR PREDICTED WELL BY THE 00Z ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Absolutely. Any data organization--government or otherwise--survives because of the accuracy and reliability of what they produce. Their error has to be recognized lest the resultant forecasts risk inaccuracy. Plus, there's more at stake with their products than just a coastal US storm. Appears to be getting better for us westerners. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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