weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Luckily there is just one full week left of 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 initialize that! the GEFS is impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 HPC is just trying to cover they're a** for this huge bust that is about to occur. GFSgate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 LOL, so euro may be affected too. well.... the 12z euro may be different with its handling of things?> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 HPC is just trying to cover they're a** for this huge bust that is about to occur. GFSgate Hopefully Santa lands on your internet router and breaks it when he slides down your chimney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It's Christmas Eve, not April Fool's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I feel like this is the Tiger Woods T-day story... There is a huge hit.... but wait there's more to it.... On the next episode of "As the models turn" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 well.... the 12z euro may be different with its handling of things?> Or it could trend west and go over Logan11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This will be the last year they start drinking the egg nog at HPC BEFORE the data ingest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC QUANTITIES...INCLUDING HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS/RH...ARE EVIDENT IN BOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS WITH SMALL BUT LIKELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA ALONG WITH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THESE AREAS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY RESOLVED OR PREDICTED WELL BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THUS...THE SPECIFIC PREDICTIONS BY ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN QUESTION...WITH THE RECOMMENDATION TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Or it could trend west and go over Logan11 The thing is how do we treat what the euro spits out at 12z?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Back to the hand drawings mets. And old school meteorology...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 We just may have to end up nowcasting the crap out of this one Like Ryan said though earlier, if an early phase is going to happen at all we are going to find out by tomorrow night, so watching the radar and satellite data if we see signs of phasing occurring tomorrow night than that will definitely be a very good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 LOL, so euro may be affected too. LOL if so, back to the old school style of Wx forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is comical. This could be the most devastating abuse of weenies to date. well.... the 12z euro may be different with its handling of things?> I hope so but do we have confidence that the EC will get it right. This explains a lot of the jumps we're seeing at h6-h12 the last day or so. I'm betting it may have been going on longer than we thought and was missed or started out small enough that it wasn't noticed. Nobody text Kev no sense ruining his day. I'm thinking I'm shifting the .5 line about 20 miles SE of where I thought it would be yesterday based on all of this pending the 12z EC and whether or not it's been hosed too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well I didn't really believe the 12z GFS right when it came out, and those messages by HPC do not instill any confidence to change that line of thinking. Scott (Coastalwx) and I were just discussing on the phone how the jump seemed way too radical. I do think with other guidance inching west so far at 12z, that the west trend is real, but just significantly less than what the GFS is trying to depict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 How quickly will Accuweather retract this??? http://www.accuweather.com/video/91358901001/east-coast-snowstorm-is-the-tide-changing?.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 i dont know if there are enough facepalms. so this is the modern era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Back to the hand drawings mets. And old school meteorology...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Hey, computers never make mistakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Back to the hand drawings mets. And old school meteorology...lol I really like what was said before... we WILL know if this phases or not tomorrow off the SC coast. Plain and simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Recommendation from the HPC: Imagine the 12z model runs never happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The thing is how do we treat what the euro spits out at 12z?? I don't know.....I guess if it doesn't move all that much then perhaps it's ok. If that jumps 150 miles west, then maybe that is suspect. The thing is, the gfs made a big jump west, but the west trend could be fact. However, now we don't know how realistic the big jump is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 HPC is just trying to cover they're a** for this huge bust that is about to occur. GFSgate Put. Down. The. Pipe. Seriously. The models take a long time to run after their initialization and data assimilation process. By the time they realize something is wrong it is too late to stop, correct whatever issues they have, and re-run.. They are doing exactly what they should - alert the end users of their products that there is a problem and that they should be disregarded. It's happened before and it'll happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well I didn't really believe the 12z GFS right when it came out, and those messages by HPC do not instill any confidence to change that line of thinking. Scott (Coastalwx) and I were just discussing on the phone how the jump seemed way too radical. I do think with other guidance inching west so far at 12z, that the west trend is real, but just significantly less than what the GFS is trying to depict. Among the most reasonable posts in the thread. Stay the course and bump slightly west. And trust the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 LOL, so euro may be affected too. They contradicted themselves, very screwy, so follow the GEFS mean, sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 the last 2 pages have been filled with comedy gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Hopefully Santa lands on your internet router and breaks it when he slides down your chimney. :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Put. Down. The. Pipe. Seriously. The models take a long time to run after their initialization and data assimilation process. By the time they realize something is wrong it is too late to stop, correct whatever issues they have, and re-run.. They are doing exactly what they should - alert the end users of their products that there is a problem and that they should be disregarded. It's happened before and it'll happen again. Yes but quite often they catch it and adjust pre-model. I'm a little surprised by this and I would love to know how they came across the errors. Was it standard error checking or did someone at NCEP say "what can be causing this seemingly impossible idea of the GFS being stronger than the NAM at this range?" I'm guessing this mornings GFS had them checking data because the initial message said there were no problems with the 12z NAM. So, they caught this later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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