RICoastalMan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 its official.....machines now control humans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I wouldn't do anything other than mention all options are still on the table. I wonder if the ensemble solution is affected by what HPC notes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I wonder if the ensemble solution is affected by what HPC notes. What do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Was it bad data being used in the initialization or was there an error with how the data was initialized? If it was an error with how the data was initialized could they just rerun it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Any idea what the initialization problems were? Yeah--they accidentally loaded Tuesdays' 12z EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The ensembles look funny. It's got a massive 982 isobar that goes from pym to about 80 miles east of the BM. Looks funny, but of course it does show spread. To have that much spread is concerning. Much lower mean central pressure though! Sign of a better consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What do you mean? HPC noted problems with gfs, so would that affect gefs too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Was it bad data being used in the initialization or was there an error with how the data was initialized? If it was an error with how the data was initialized could they just rerun it? No and the problem is if it's really bad the 18z runs will be mucked up too. Euro will be even more key especially considering it's superior initialization/data analysis in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Was it bad data being used in the initialization or was there an error with how the data was initialized? If it was an error with how the data was initialized could they just rerun it? No point since it's almost 18Z. It's just unfortunate this sort of thing happened inside 60 hours from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm glad that my post brought the mood down and that it wasn't my thoughts. Merry Christmas from the folks at BOX <ctblizz>Dick!<ctblizz> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 No and the problem is if it's really bad the 18z runs will be mucked up too. Euro will be even more key especially considering it's superior initialization/data analysis in the first place. Biggest. Run. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 No and the problem is if it's really bad the 18z runs will be mucked up too. Euro will be even more key especially considering it's superior initialization/data analysis in the first place. If the euro is nothing at all similar to the GFS than it's safe to say we can probably just toss the GFS on this one. Not even sure if I want to see the 18z GFS.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If initialization is entirely responsible, how come the other globals shifted west including GEM and crazy uncle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If initialization is entirely responsible, how come the other globals shifted west including GEM and crazy uncle. They shifted west, but it's not like they're creaming New England. They're just more in line with the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What an unexpected plot twist! Could a weather model possible be any more dramatic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 SOmeone just posted this one one of my statuses on facebook. "HPC said on their website, though, that the initialization issues don't seem to impact the validity of the model." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 HPC noted problems with gfs, so would that affect gefs too? oh oh I gotcha. Good question... I'm not sure if it's run off the 6z GFS 6h forecast or if it uses the 12z GFS initialization. I assume the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Was it bad data being used in the initialization or was there an error with how the data was initialized? If it was an error with how the data was initialized could they just rerun it? Unfortunately no. And what stinks is if the data is bad, the 18z runs will be screwed up too Biggest Euro run of your life! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If initialization is entirely responsible, how come the other globals shifted west including GEM and crazy uncle. It prob will end up not having that much of an effect, As all the others have come west....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The whole issue is the phase around 36 hours. If we see other models dig the northern stream like the op GFS then it's time to get excited. It won't take too much longer to figure out if that phase is going to happen because it will be underway by tomorrow night. tihs made me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yeah--they accidentally loaded Tuesdays' 12z EC. LOL, made me laugh out loud. HPC noted problems with gfs, so would that affect gefs too? I think so, I'm told it's the same ingest. No and the problem is if it's really bad the 18z runs will be mucked up too. Euro will be even more key especially considering it's superior initialization/data analysis in the first place. Great distinction, the 18z will be a mess too if the problems are real. The only two models so far giving any hit are both potentially suffering from errors, UGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Scratch that...he now says: "Never mind, apparently the HPC really thinks the 12z GFS solution is wrong." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If initialization is entirely responsible, how come the other globals shifted west including GEM and crazy uncle. That was quite a big jump though. I mean a 150 miles jump? I don't know if it is right or not...I'm not a comp engineer at HPC, but that did seem like quite the jump west. I guess we'll see what the euro does. Hopefully any problem is relegated to the gfs or nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If initialization is entirely responsible, how come the other globals shifted west including GEM and crazy uncle. They might have just been shifting closer to the EC/GFS camps. GIGO. Run for the trash heap, but a siutaiton that will go down Amwx lore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 They shifted west, but it's not like they're creaming New England. They're just more in line with the EC. Yeah they came NW like most of us thought was possible or even likely. Most (except Kevin, apparently) thought the early phase with a mid atlantic blizzard was off the table with a totally different 500mb evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC QUANTITIES...INCLUDING HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS/RH...ARE EVIDENT IN BOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS WITH SMALL BUT LIKELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA ALONG WITH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THESE AREAS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY RESOLVED OR PREDICTED WELL BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THUS...THE SPECIFIC PREDICTIONS BY ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN QUESTION...WITH THE RECOMMENDATION TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 No and the problem is if it's really bad the 18z runs will be mucked up too. Euro will be even more key especially considering it's superior initialization/data analysis in the first place. Unfortunately no. And what stinks is if the data is bad, the 18z runs will be screwed up too Biggest Euro run of your life! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1159 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2010 VALID DEC 24/1200 UTC THRU DEC 28/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ...SPLIT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXTENDING OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST... ...LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY... PREFERENCE: EQUAL BLEND OF THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OR THE ENSEMBLE MEANS INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC QUANTITIES...INCLUDING HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS/RH...ARE EVIDENT IN BOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS WITH SMALL BUT LIKELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA ALONG WITH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THESE AREAS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY RESOLVED OR PREDICTED WELL BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THUS...THE SPECIFIC PREDICTIONS BY ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN QUESTION...WITH THE RECOMMENDATION TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY...WITH THE FINAL OUTCOME MOST BELIEVED TO LIE BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH ALL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF MEAN/GEFS MEAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO CONSIDERED USEFUL TO ADDRESS THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. THIS APPROACH DISREGARDS THE SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER AND WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE 12Z GFS REGARDING THE POWERFUL LOW TRACKING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z NAM WHICH LIES NEAR THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW. ...HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY... PREFERENCE: NAM OR 00Z ECMWF ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST THE GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH ENTERING CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT IS STILL FASTER THAN THE AGREEING NAM/00Z ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN GFS TRENDS AND SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN...THE PREFERENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IS FOR THE NAM OR 00Z ECMWF. ...LOW PRESSURE NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE MONDAY... PREFERENCE: 2/3 NAM OR 00Z ECMWF TO 1/3 GFS THE NAM/00Z ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SURFACE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING LEADING EDGE OF ITS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST JUST WEST OF PORTLAND BY 00Z TUE...WHILE THE 12Z GFS IS ABOUT 200 NM FARTHER SOUTH AT THE SAME TIME. WHILE SOLUTION SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE AT THIS TIME FRAME... RECOMMEND LEANING TOWARD THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION OF THE NAM/00Z ECMWF. ...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML... ...500MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML... JAMES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 That's a freaking disaster. So the 3 models that show a hit are having significant problems. WTF how is this just known now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC QUANTITIES...INCLUDING HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS/RH...ARE EVIDENT IN BOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS WITH SMALL BUT LIKELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA ALONG WITH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THESE AREAS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY RESOLVED OR PREDICTED WELL BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THUS...THE SPECIFIC PREDICTIONS BY ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN QUESTION...WITH THE RECOMMENDATION TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY. LOL, so euro may be affected too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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