DomNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is like a sh*tty soap opera now..."GFS comes west, but were there initialization errors at work? Find out next week when the Doctor pays us a visit." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If the GEFS are way west too, that's gotta be some hint that there's more to it than an initialization error though ... right? Depends... if initialization was really flawed the ensembles would probably be too. But you're right the impact will be muted on an ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GFS ensemble mean is 150+ miles west of 00z and 10mb deeper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 UK huge miss! Maps to follow. They were posted earlier in the thread. Old news but thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It's not on the diagnostic discussion yet, but the rumor is there were significant datapoint issues. Total rumor, but might explain how all the other models are still a miss. How long before they figure out the ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 wowowowowo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The ensembles look funny. It's got a massive 982 isobar that goes from pym to about 80 miles east of the BM. Looks funny, but of course it does show spread. To have that much spread is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RICoastalMan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 initialize that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 wowowowowo Fooking A, that's almost a carbon copy of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GFS ensemble mean is 150+ miles west of 00z and 10mb deeper! Only thing intensity really shows us on an ensemble mean is that there's actually good consensus! So that's a solid development. QPF on an ensemble mean is not worth a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 They were posted earlier in the thread. Old news but thanks. Didn't see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 wow 12 gfs ensembles bury most of SNE.. Edit: ALL of CNE and SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow, what a total letdown. Explains the huge shift west. Now not sure what to expect from the ECM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 From BOX SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM AS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WE HAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...AS WELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM /THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THE BENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS MORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONE THING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TO THE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TO WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Odd. HPC says the NAM was fine in their disco but told BOX it had init errors. Agree with BOX about waffling though MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1016 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2010 VALID DEC 24/1200 UTC THRU DEC 28/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST... 12Z NAM EVALUATION INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT ITSSOLUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 From BOX SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM AS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WE HAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...AS WELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM /THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THE BENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS MORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONE THING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TO THE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TO WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES. Well that might bring people back down to earth lol. Temper expectations people lol. Still hope the GFS is right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RICoastalMan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow, what a total letdown. Explains the huge shift west. Now not sure what to expect from the ECM... not buying it was totally responsible for the shift west, but we will see with future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The maps posted actually look better than what I can see, but there is still a decent amount of spread, for 72 hrs out. Lets see what euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 From BOX SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM AS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WE HAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...AS WELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM /THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THE BENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS MORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONE THING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TO THE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TO WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES. Well, there's a top-ten buzz-kill statement of 2010 making it under the wire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 wow 12 gfs ensembles bury most of SNE.. you cant use QPF off an ensemble mean for much of anything. 1 or 2 models that go crazy with QPF or convective feedback can totally skew thing. I've always argued that SLP/QPF ensemble maps should be mean SLP and median QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm being a d*ckhead...time for coffee. Thanks Jerry...admitting it is the first step to recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighPressure Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Now what do the 12pm Mets do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 We haven't had our hearts broken by initialization errors before...unique way to get fooked. Justin Consor and Brian/wxcentral always checked the status messages, was a force of habit. Data has been so good for so long now we've all gotten lazy. I got an email at about 1050 about possible problems. It's usually about 1230 when NCEP updates to include the GFS and other models and obviously I'm thinking when they saw this extreme solution data was checked and errors were found. Everyone urged caution. It's also not impossible to think the errors may be in our favor. Anyway, CT Rain found a new way to Kev's blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm glad that my post brought the mood down and that it wasn't my thoughts. Merry Christmas from the folks at BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 That whistling sound you hear is the air being let out of the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Now what do the 12pm Mets do? I wouldn't do anything other than mention all options are still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm glad that my post brought the mood down and that it wasn't my thoughts. Merry Christmas from the folks at BOX Text it to Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 you cant use QPF off an ensemble mean for much of anything. 1 or 2 models that go crazy with QPF or convective feedback can totally skew thing. I've always argued that SLP/QPF ensemble maps should be mean SLP and median QPF. well, thats true. my bad, but the mean SLP placement at 72hrs is 20 miles off ACK and its at 977mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Text it to Kevin. I don't want to listen to bitching via text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I don't want to listen to bitching via text. Yeah good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.