dendrite Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Must be some good hits up here on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That GFS is about as perfect as we could wish for... probably won't verify, but maybe Santa will be nice to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 4:53 AM, dendrite said: Must be some good hits up here on the ensembles. Pretty sick to have a 976 mean SLP just off of CHH at 60h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 4:50 AM, Happy Valley said: Can actually get much better for you, me and some others on this board. I would have no problem with this storm tracking over Hyannis and then heading NE. It can get better here for sure, But it will be at someone elses expense for us to jackpot somebody will be raining........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GEM aboard.....little over an hour untilt he EURO joins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 4:53 AM, dendrite said: Must be some good hits up here on the ensembles. Yea I agree... I am actually starting to like our location for this. We won't have to worry about dryslot and we could try and get into that deform band, which usually sets up pretty far away from the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 4:50 AM, CoastalWx said: Wow ensembles are just se of Chatham..lol. Still seems like lots of spread here. I think the EURO moves to the nw edge of the envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Apparently HPC does not like 00z GFS either... you have to be kidding me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 4:57 AM, snowNH said: Yea I agree... I am actually starting to like our location for this. We won't have to worry about dryslot and we could try and get into that deform band, which usually sets up pretty far away from the center If it goes near the ensembles prediction, there probably would be a band pretty far nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 4:41 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Is it me, or is NCEP desperately grasping at straws. Well they are pointing out legitimate errors and they seem to be figuring out what I've noticed long ago - that the models seem to be able to ingest some foul stuff and not be greatly effected. We will likely see fluctuations as we get further away from the mess but their ideas aren't bad. Figure on a track to about the BM knowing it could go 40 miles in any direction and that's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Never really seen HPC coming out with these nearly on the hour updates tamping down each and every model runs. First 12z and 18z were inaccurate for initialization issues, now they're concerned about 00z for feedback. Just strange considering consistent shifts on even the global models thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 4:55 AM, ETauntonMA said: Pretty sick to have a 976 mean SLP just off of CHH at 60h. NAM has a gradient equal to the blizz of '78, which I think is overdone, but.....GFS is more realistic at 10mb below that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 4:59 AM, yoda said: Apparently HPC does not like 00z GFS either... you have to be kidding me THe HPC is a joke. THey either go way too bullish or way too conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 4:59 AM, yoda said: Apparently HPC does not like 00z GFS either... you have to be kidding me So HPC hates all models pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 4:58 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the EURO moves to the nw edge of the envelope. I don't think its going GFS style personally. It will probably come in like the NAM or something. The GFS being on the western fringe of guidance is really weird, and maybe this is part of its new found "upgrade" we saw in the summer, but it hadn't really shown it yet in a winter storm. We'll see about this one. It would be a weird sick joke if the GFS busted by being too amplified. I would think some of the M.A. folks would want to literally nuke it because it had played so many cruel tricks during its suppressed days. But we'll find out who's right and who's wrong pretty soon. Should be a very interesting next 2 days at any rate, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What is the QPF like for the Ukie and GGEM? On 12/25/2010 at 4:57 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEM aboard.....little over an hour untilt he EURO joins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 5:00 AM, mattmfm said: Never really seen HPC coming out with these nearly on the hour updates tamping down each and every model runs. First 12z and 18z were inaccurate for initialization issues, now they're concerned about 00z for feedback. Just strange considering consistent shifts on even the global models thus far. They seem very reluctant to capitulate to what would have to be considered a pretty epic model castatrophe by contemporary standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 5:02 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: They seem very reluctant to capitulate to what would have to be considered a pretty epic model castatrophe by contemporary standards. In simple terms, They Fooked up and won't admit it......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 5:00 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: NAM has a gradient equal to the blizz of '78, which I think is overdone, but.....GFS is more realistic at 10mb below that. per 0z GFS 1029mb high over Arkansas...975ish low south of Chatham...thats good for 60-70 mph gusts somewhere if it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 5:04 AM, Dryslot said: In simple terms, They Fooked up and won't admit it......... Well, their guidance did....HPC has a stark continuity fetish....which is good, but they over do it imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 5:05 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, their guidance did....HPC has a stark continuity fetish....which is good, but they over do it imo. THIS^ ANd it manifests in very bullish solutions when the storm is clearly trending suppressed and vice versa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 4:59 AM, yoda said: Apparently HPC does not like 00z GFS either... you have to be kidding me Well they dont' use it anywhere in the diagnostic in favor of a 0znam sref mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays folks. Hope everyone has good health going into 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 5:06 AM, CoastalWx said: Well Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays folks. Hope everyone has good health going into 2011. You as well! Merry Christmas May 2011 be white and kind to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 make sure you guys check out the CIPS page for some analogs. Looks like north shore MA could be in a sweet spot for this one...I am excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 5:06 AM, BostonWX said: THIS^ ANd it manifests in very bullish solutions when the storm is clearly trending suppressed and vice versa Yea, they make damn sure they do not EVER bite on a faux trend, but the catch 22 is that they often are a day late and a $ short with regard to viable trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 5:00 AM, messenger said: Well they are pointing out legitimate errors and they seem to be figuring out what I've noticed long ago - that the models seem to be able to ingest some foul stuff and not be greatly effected. We will likely see fluctuations as we get further away from the mess but their ideas aren't bad. Figure on a track to about the BM knowing it could go 40 miles in any direction and that's that. That I'm sure is something that we could all be happy with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not sure if I will make it to the Euro tonight.. I might just save it for the morning and have another present to open! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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