Baroclinic Zone Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z NAM looks to have some convective feedback issues. SLP should be tucked in a little closer to coast more in line with Euro/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think the 9z RSM is a reasonable solution. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RSMEAST_12z/rsmloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 My thoughts heading into the rest of the 12z: There is one undeniable broad trend the last 3-4 days. Gradually the threat for the most precip has been sliding north and east as the hook occurs later and later when you look at the east coast as a whole. Areas well away from the mean track spent a full day or two trying to explain why the models should be further west/northwest than they were before it became crystal clear. As we found with the storm earlier in the week although there was some degree of feedback (not to this extent) it didn't really effect the course in a way that significantly impacted a huge area of New England. The NAM did trend west, the 60hr QPF maps tell the story. The question really is at this point how much further west does it get before the hook as we seem to be locking into a solution cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Did you see the NAM sim radar? pushes a band into Boston and then up towards Ray, then shows some nice precip bending back nw Maine into NH. IN NYC thread, don't know how to bring it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think the 9z RSM is a reasonable solution. http://www.meteo.psu...2z/rsmloop.html Not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Did you see the NAM sim radar? pushes a band into Boston and then up towards Ray, then shows some nice precip bending back nw Maine into NH. IN NYC thread, don't know how to bring it here. You can do the 6h on the NCEP site or the 3hr here http://www.twisterdata.com But be aware on the td site it will always appear a bit overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I have good vibes about this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think the 9z RSM is a reasonable solution. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RSMEAST_12z/rsmloop.html I hope its an outlier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'll use the scientific term I saw posted on another thread, RGEM more diggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Diggy diggy diggy..can't you see, please bring the low to the benchmark for me. Sorry..just goofing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'll use the scientific term I saw posted on another thread, RGEM more diggy. RGEM I thought was encouraging in that CMC appears to be coming around. NAM has ticked west each run...almost there. I looked at the EC ens from Allen's site and it seemed pretty robust but only 24 hour intervals...any other info on those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'll use the scientific term I saw posted on another thread, RGEM more diggy. Get diggy wit it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 lol the RSM literally has a warm core "eye" feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 lol the RSM literally has a warm core "eye" feature could you see the pressure? loooked sub 960 but it was hard to count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Diggy diggy diggy..can't you see, please bring the low to the benchmark Cape Cod Canal for me. Sorry..just goofing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I have good vibes about this thread Oh, you're heading to Hyannis for Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GFS through the first 18 hours looks much more like the 0z than the 6z FWIW It's getting diggier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GFS through the first 18 hours looks much more like the 0z than the 6z FWIW It's getting diggier. Until just now, I thought your avatar was a crab. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Btw...MET numbers despite the odd NAM were much more robust than I'd have expected given qpf. 6+ PSF on east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 the key to this run will be hr. 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Diggy diggy diggy..can't you see, please bring the low to the benchmark for me. Sorry..just goofing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Btw...MET numbers despite the odd NAM were much more robust than I'd have expected given qpf. 6+ PSF on east. That is bizarre. I just saw the 6 for here in the snow category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Btw...MET numbers despite the odd NAM were much more robust than I'd have expected given qpf. 6+ PSF on east. Are you sh*tting me? How far north in Mass did that go? If that were to happen, I'd owe Keven a couple beers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 That is bizarre. I just saw the 6 for here in the snow category. A signal? I have no idea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Until just now, I thought your avatar was a crab. lol lol me too figured it had something to do with living out there didnt realize until i read your post and double checked with squinting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 i know its early but the gfs looks way better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Just looked at the 06z runs and 12z runs.... Good Shifts by the SREFs and NAM bad shift by the GFS... Still plenty of time probably a day and a half of model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Early returns on GFS suggests it will be as good or even SLIGHTLY better vs 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Definitely more "diggier"...lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 i know its early but the gfs looks way better Looks worse IMO.. trough is even broader than 06z at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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