2022 North Atlantic hurricane forecast contest _ enter by June 1st

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

12 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

15 NS' hasn't broke in El Nino 10 straight times, even weak.

How can you win going high when everyone is a variation of going high and people will win or lose by 1 NS or H, I think being alone going low is the winning move.

 

Like using random pick for Power Ball (not that I have purchased a tax for the statistically challenged in a while), the odds of it picking truly random numbers so a winner isn't splitting with others is better than lucky numbers, which probably aren't unique.

[GaWx]

18/9/5

[jaxjagman]

18/`9/4

[Daniel Boone]

19/11/5

[cheese007]

15/7/2

[Roger Smith]

Thanks for all the entries, will be making up a table of entries in the next two or three days. Will informally extend the deadline to 18z June 3rd which is when I expect to have this table ready, if any somewhat late entrants want to join in, or anyone already posting wants to edit, go ahead, I won't be making copies of forecasts until the table is ready. Here are some "official" forecasts that will be scored but not ranked in the contest. 

NHC _____ 17.5 _ 8 _ 4.5 (median of 14 6 3 and 21 10 6)

CSU _____ 19 _ 9 _ 4 (median of 13 6 2 and 16 8 3)

TWC _____ 20 _ 8 _ 4

TSR ______ 18 _ 8 _ 4

UKMO ____ 18 _ 9 _ 4

(there are others listed on wikipedia, all in a similar range)

The "expert consensus" will be the only one listed in the table of entries, that will be 18 _ 8 _ 4 which is close to all of the above. 

Storm names available for 2022: 

Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Martin, Nicole, Owen, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie, Walter.

There has been no activity yet. In the eastern Pacific theater, Agatha (cat-2) has come and gone, making landfall west of Puerto Angel, Mexico on May 30th.

 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

23/11/4

[wxdude64]

LOL, thanks for the extension, I forgot all about playing until I realized the date this morning!

22/10/5

[StormchaserChuck!]

20 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

How can you win going high when everyone is a variation of going high and people will win or lose by 1 NS or H, I think being alone going low is the winning move.

 

Like using random pick for Power Ball (not that I have purchased a tax for the statistically challenged in a while), the odds of it picking truly random numbers so a winner isn't splitting with others is better than lucky numbers, which probably aren't unique.

That's true, especially with a possible El nino out there, take the under vs 18-23 at like 90%

[StormchaserChuck!]

They never would have guessed this stuff pre-1995. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I think unless NHC/NOAA show real skill a probability scheme, maybe a near normal, 33% and 66% above and below normal should be official outlooks.

Picking named storms/hurricanes/major, even in a range, implies greater predictability than actually exists.

[Roger Smith]

Just starting to work on the table of entries for posting tomorrow, further entries are okay until 18z Friday, so are edits but check my table if you make a really late edit as I may have gone past your entry by then. 

[Roger Smith]

2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Forecast Contest

______________________________________

 

Table of forecasts

 

FORECASTER ______________ NS _ Hur _ Maj

 

Brentrich ___________________27 __ 11 __ 7

cptcatz ____________________ 24 __ 13 __ 6

ColdRainLover _____________ 23 __ 11 __ 5

SnowenOutThere __________ 23 __ 11 __ 4

NorthHillsWx _______________ 23 __ 9 __ 4

RJay _______________________ 22 __ 12 __ 5

wxdude64 _________________ 22 __ 10 __ 5

Prospero ___________________ 21 __ 11 __ 4

Yoda _______________________ 21 __ 10 __ 6

WxWatcher007 ____________ 21 __ 10 __ 5

LakeNormanStormin _______ 21 __ 10 __ 4

IntenseWind002 ___________ 21 ___ 9 __ 4

Runman292 ________________20 __ 12 __ 6

yotaman ___________________ 20 __ 11 __ 4

Roger Smith _______________ 20 __ 10 __ 3

DonSutherland1 ____________20 __ 9 __ 5

Cat Lady ___________________ 20 __ 9 __ 3

Daniel Boone _______________19 __ 11 __ 5

Wannabehippie ____________ 19 __ 10 __ 3

___ Contest mean __________ 19 __ 9 __ 4

ineedsnow __________________19 __ 8 __ 5

NCForecaster89 ____________19 __ 8 __ 4

GaWx _______________________18 __ 9 __ 5

jaxjagman __________________ 18 __ 9 __ 4

"Expert consensus" _________18 __ 8 __ 4

snowlover2 _________________ 18 __ 8 __ 3

StormchaserChuck! ________ 17 __ 11 __ 4

cnimbus ____________________ 17 __ 7 __ 3

tplbge ______________________ 17 __ 6 __ 3

Torch Tiger _________________ 16 __ 8 __ 3

cheese007 __________________15 __ 7 __ 2

Hotair _______________________13 __ 6 __ 2

Ed Snow & Hurricane Fan ____9 __ 4 __ 1

____________________________________

31 entries so far, and the "expert consensus" -- you can enter this contest today (June 3) but then the table is set. Posted a bit early just so that any late entries will find it easier to pick a unique set of numbers (picking a set already taken means you would automatically finish behind that earlier entry in the rankings). You can pick the expert consensus though, they are scored but not ranked in the contest other than to note where they would have finished had they been an actual contest forecaster.

The "contest means" shown are rounded off, the decimal versions are currently 19.4 _ 9.3 _ 4.1 (these do not include the expert consensus although they could without any significant changes.) 

SCORING _ As in past year, the error factor for named storms is 50% as big as the factor for hurricanes and majors. 

The basic concept is, you start with 100 points, then lose points from this formula: 

H and M errors are deducted from the formula (E + E^2)/2 ... error plus error squared, divided by 2. For example, your prediction of H and M is 10 4 and the end of season count is 12 5. Your H error is 2, the deduction is (2 + 4) /2 or 3. Your M error is 1, your deduction is 1. So far then you are reduced to 96 points (100-3-1). The deduction for named storm errors is calculated the same way, then half of that calculation is applied. So to continue with the same example, if your forecast had been 22 10 4 and the season count turned out to be 19 12 5, then your named storm error is 3 and your deduction is half of (3 + 9) / 2 or half of 6 which is 3, so your total score is 93 (100-3-3-1). 

 

If you do enter between now and end of the day Friday June 3rd, I will adjust the contest means and any other information as required. If you have a forecast entered and want to edit it, let me know. In the absence of further changes, bring on the 2022 season and we'll see how we do.

[ncforecaster89]

Given the option to amend my earlier forecast, I’m simply going to add one additional hurricane…as I’ve been wavering between 8 and 9, since my original post).  

 

19/9/4

[Roger Smith]

Okay, made that change, you are level with the contest consensus rounded off although both named storms and hurricanes are just about halfway from 19-20 and 9-10 respectively, rounding down from 19.4 and 9.4 now. 

We have passed the deadline as announced, would allow in any forecasts (or late edits) to 06z June 4th at which time contest is closed to further entries.

[yoda]

So how does this count in the standings?  Since it made "landfall" as a PTC, it's technically not a TD or TS

[Roger Smith]

It is supposed to develop to TS status later according to forecast discussion, if so, will count 1/0/0, if not, outside the scope of the contest. 

[Roger Smith]

Well hands up if you thought we would be at 6/3/0 after the median peak of the season. Okay Ed you can put your hand down now.

Going back, the least productive seasons of the past 170 years include these:

* 2014 (8/6/2) and 2009 (9/3/2) have the lowest storm counts since 1997. (Numerous other years had only 2 majors though)

* 2013 (14/2/0) has the lowest H count since 1914 (tied with 1982, 1930, 1919 and 1917) and is most recent year to have no majors.

* 1997 (8/3/1) is tied with 2014 for low storm count and with 2009 for second lowest H count.

* 1994 (7/3/0) is tied with 1997 and 2009 for second lowest H count and is the second most recent year to register no major hurricanes.

* 1993 also a low count season (8/4/1) although 1994 was one lower for each element. 

* 1992 (7/4/1) tied 1994 for low storm count, Andrew however made it a more notable season. 

* 1987 (7/3/1) is tied with 1992 and 1994 for low storm count, and with 1994, 1997, 2009 for second lowest H count.

* 1986 (6/4/0) had the least named storms after 1983 and is tied with 1994, 2013 for no major hurricanes.

* 1983 (4/3/1) set a low storm count since 1930 and is tied with 1987, 1994, 1997 and 2009 for second lowest H count.

* 1982 (6/2/1) had the fewest hurricanes since 1914 (tied 1917, 1919, 1930 and 2013). 

* 1946 (7/3/0) was a rather weak season, but zero major hurricanes occurred several times between 1946 and 1986.

* 1930 (3/2/2) set a low storm count and a low H count (later tied in 1982 and 2013) since 1914

* 1917 and 1919 also had only 2 H, back that far the non-identification factor has to be considered though.

* 1914 (1/0/0) set records for low counts in all departments. Before 1914 these were the lowest seasonal counts since 1850:

* 1907 (5/0/0) tied 1914 for low H (zero M is fairly common in the early portions of the records)

* 1857 was tied with 1868 (both 4/3/0) and also 1883 (4/3/2), 1884 (4/4/1) and 1890 (4/2/1) for the third lowest storm count with 1925 and 1983. 

 

[Roger Smith]

Now at 7/3/1 _ that was fast.

 

[Roger Smith]

Now at 9/3/1, Ian forecast to change this to 9/4/2 eventually. That is if Gaston and Hermine die out as TS. 

[Roger Smith]

Julia makes the count 10/4/2 with a good chance of 10/5/2 before morning. Here are the current scores based on 10/5/2 ... 

(Oct 16 _ scoring updated for Karl which made the count 11/5/2)

 

Preliminary scoring report (current basis 11/5/2) ( second entry is for Lisa 110) (third entry Martin 100)

 

FORECASTER ______________NS _ Hur _ Maj _ Score deductions __ TOTAL SCORE

 

Brentrich ___________________27 __11 __ 7 ____ -68.0 _-21.0 _ -15.0 __ (0.0) __10.0 _ 17.5

cptcatz ____________________ 24 __13 __ 6 ____ -45.5 _-36.0 _-10.0 __ 8.5 ___23.0 _ 29.0

ColdRainLover _____________ 23 __11 __ 5 ____ -39.0 _-21.0 _ -6.0 __ 34.0 ___46.0 _ 51.5

SnowenOutThere __________ 23 __11 __ 4 ____ -39.0 _-21.0 _ -3.0 __ 37.0 ___49.0 _ 54.5

NorthHillsWx _______________23 __ 9 __ 4 ____ -39.0 _-10.0 _ -3.0 __ 48.0 ___58.0 _ 63.5

RJay _______________________ 22 __12 __ 5 ____ -33.0 _-28.0 _ -6.0 __ 33.0 ___45.5 _ 50.5

wxdude64 _________________ 22 __10 __ 5 ____ -33.0 _-15.0 _ -6.0 __ 46.0 ___56.5 _ 61.5

Prospero ___________________21 __ 11 __ 4 ____ -27.5 _-21.0 _ -3.0 __ 48.5 ___59.5 _ 64.0

Yoda _______________________21 __ 10 __ 6 ____-27.5 _-15.0 _-10.0 __ 47.5 ___57.5 _ 62.0

WxWatcher007 ____________ 21 __ 10 __ 5 ____-27.5 _-15.0 _ -6.0 __ 51.5 ___61.5 _ 66.0

LakeNormanStormin _______21 __ 10 __ 4 ____-27.5 _-15.0 _ -3.0 __ 54.5 ___64.5 _ 69.0

IntenseWind002 ___________ 21 ___9 __ 4 ____-27.5 _ -10.0 _ -3.0 __ 59.5 ___68.5 _ 73.0

Runman292 ________________20 __12 __ 6 ____-22.5 _ -28.0 _-10.0 __39.5___51.0 _ 55.0

yotaman ___________________ 20 __11 __ 4 ____-22.5 _ -21.0 _ -3.0 __ 53.5___64.0 _ 68.0

Roger Smith _______________ 20 __10 __ 3 ____-22.5 _ -15.0 _ -1.0 __ 61.5___71.5 _ 75.5

DonSutherland1 ____________20 __ 9 __ 5 ____-22.5 _ -10.0 _ -6.0 __ 61.5___70.0 _74.0

Cat Lady ___________________20 __ 9 __ 3 ____-22.5 _ -10.0 _ -1.0 __ 66.5___75.0 _79.0

Daniel Boone _______________19 __ 11 __ 5 ____-18.0 _ -21.0 _-6.0 __ 55.0 ___65.0 _68.5

Wannabehippie ____________ 19 __10 __ 3 ____ -18.0 _-15.0 _-1.0 __ 66.0 ___ 75.0 _78.5

___ Contest mean __________ 19 __ 9 __ 4 ____ -18.0 _-10.0 _-3.0 __ 69.0___ 77.0 _80.5

ineedsnow __________________19 __ 8 __ 5 ____ -18.0 _-6.0 _ -6.0 __ 70.0___ 77.0 _ 80.5

NCForecaster89 ____________19 __ 8 __ 4 ____ -18.0 _ -6.0 _ -3.0 __ 73.0___80.0 _ 83.5

GaWx _______________________18 __ 9 __ 5 ____ -14.0 _-10.0 _ -6.0 __ 70.0___77.5 _ 80.5

jaxjagman __________________ 18 __ 9 __ 4 ____ -14.0 _-10.0 _ -3.0 __ 73.0___80.5_ 83.5

"Expert consensus" _________18 __ 8 __ 4 ____ -14.0 _ -6.0 _ -3.0 __ 77.0___83.5 _ 86.5

snowlover2 _________________ 18 __ 8 __ 3 ____ -14.0 _ -6.0 _ -1.0 __ 79.0___85.5 _ 88.5

StormchaserChuck! ________ 17 __ 11 __ 4 ____ -10.5 _-21.0_ -3.0 __ 65.5___74.5 _ 77.0

cnimbus ____________________ 17 __ 7 __ 3 _____-10.5 _ -3.0 _ -1.0 __ 85.5___90.5 _ 93.0

tplbge ______________________ 17 __ 6 __ 3 _____-10.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 __ 87.5___ 91.5 _ 94.0

Torch Tiger _________________ 16 __ 8 __ 3 ______ -7.5 _ -6.0 _ -1.0 __ 85.5___91.0 _ 93.0

cheese007 __________________15 __ 7 __ 2 ______ -5.0 _ -3.0 _ -0.0 __ 92.0__ 96.0 _ 97.5

Hotair _______________________13 __ 6 __ 2 ______ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ -0.0 __ 97.5 ___99.5_100.0

Ed Snow & Hurricane Fan ____9 __ 4 __ 1 ______ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 ___ 96.5___93.0_ 91.0

____________________________________

At this point, scores are almost inverse to the forecast table, but Hotair has now moved ahead.

Of course there could be 3-5 more storms quite easily at this time of year. So the people with 16 and 17 are probably not eliminated (even 17 11 4 can be achieved at this point ... other than Ed there is no forecast that is not mathematically possible from 11 5 2 but some would require a late October and November beyond anything ever recorded in the past). Here's what you need to make your forecast happen (from 11 5 2) ... and now also 12 6 2 which is the possible outcome for Lisa.

FORECASTER ____________ FORECAST _____ now needs _ (after Lisa 110 needs) (after Martin 100 needs)

Brentrich ___________________27 __11 __ 7 ____ 16 _ 6 _ 5 (15 5 5) (14 5 5)

cptcatz ____________________ 24 __13 __ 6 ____ 13 _ 8 _ 4  (12 7 4) (11 7 4)

ColdRainLover _____________ 23 __11 __ 5 ____ 12 _ 6 _ 3 (11 5 3) (10 5 3)

SnowenOutThere __________ 23 __11 __ 4 ____ 12 _ 6 _ 2 (11 5 2) (10 5 2)

NorthHillsWx _______________23 __ 9 __ 4 ____ 12 _ 4 _ 2 (11 3 2) (10 3 2)

RJay _______________________ 22 __12 __ 5 ____ 11 _ 7 _ 3 (10 6 3) (9 6 3)

wxdude64 _________________ 22 __10 __ 5 ____ 11 _ 5 _ 3 (10 4 3) (9 4 3)

Prospero ___________________21 __ 11 __ 4 ____ 10 _ 6 _ 2 (9 5 2) (8 5 2)

Yoda _______________________ 21 __ 10 __ 6 ____ 10 _ 5 _ 4 (9 4 4) (8 4 4)

WxWatcher007 ____________ 21 __ 10 __ 5 ____ 10 _ 5 _ 3 (9 4 3) (8 4 3)

LakeNormanStormin _______21 __ 10 __ 4 ____ 10 _ 5 _ 2 (9 4 2) (8 4 2)

IntenseWind002 ___________ 21 ___9 __ 4 ____ 10 _ 4 _ 2 (9 3 2) (8 3 2)

Runman292 ________________20 __12 __ 6 _____ 9 _ 7 _ 4 (8 6 2) (7 6 2)

yotaman ___________________ 20 __11 __ 4 _____ 9 _ 6 _ 2 (8 5 2) (7 5 2)

Roger Smith _______________ 20 __10 __ 3 _____ 9 _ 5 _ 1 (8 4 1) (7 4 1)

DonSutherland1 ____________20 __ 9 __ 5 _____ 9 _ 4 _ 3 (8 3 3) (7 3 3)

Cat Lady ___________________20 __ 9 __ 3 _____ 9 _ 4 _ 1 (8 3 1) (7 3 1)

Daniel Boone _______________19 __ 11 __ 5 _____8 _ 6 _ 3 (7 4 3) (6 4 3)

Wannabehippie ____________ 19 __10 __ 3 ____ 8 _ 5 _ 1 (7 4 1) (6 4 1)

___ Contest mean __________ 19 __ 9 __ 4 ____ 8 _ 4 _ 2 (7 3 2) (6 3 2)

ineedsnow __________________19 __ 8 __ 5 ____ 8 _ 3 _ 3 (7 2 2)* (6 2 2)

NCForecaster89 ____________19 __ 8 __ 4 ____ 8 _ 3 _ 2 (7 2 2) (6 2 2)

GaWx _______________________18 __ 9 __ 5 ____ 7 _ 4 _ 3 (6 3 3) (5 3 3)

jaxjagman __________________ 18 __ 9 __ 4 ____ 7 _ 4 _ 2 (6 3 2) (5 3 2)

"Expert consensus" _________18 __ 8 __ 4 ____ 7 _ 3 _ 2 (6 2 2) (5 2 2)

snowlover2 _________________ 18 __ 8 __ 3 ____ 7 _ 3 _ 1 (6 2 1) (5 2 1)

StormchaserChuck! ________ 17 __ 11 __ 4 ____ 6 _ 6 _ 2 (5 5 2) (5 5 2)**

cnimbus ____________________ 17 __ 7 __ 3 _____ 6 _ 2 _ 1 (5 1 1) (4 1 1)

tplbge ______________________ 17 __ 6 __ 3 _____ 6 _ 1 _ 1 (5 0 0)*(4 0 0)*

Torch Tiger _________________ 16 __ 8 __ 3 _____5 _ 3 _ 1 (4 2 1) (3 2 1)

cheese007 __________________15 __ 7 __ 2 ______4 _ 2 _ 0 (3 1 0) (2 1 0)

Hotair _______________________13 __ 6 __ 2 ______2 _ 1 _ 0 (1 0 0) (0 0 0)

Ed Snow & Hurricane Fan ____9 __ 4 __ 1 ______0 _ 0 _ 0 is best outcome (current dep -2 -1 -1) (-3, -2, -1) (-4,-2,-1)

____________________________________________

* Best outcomes if Lisa a named storm, these two forecasts now cannot verify if Lisa becomes a hurricane, leaving more majors to achieve than hurricanes)

** Martin has now made this forecast unattainable (if Lisa becomes a hurricane) and 5 5 2 brings the totals to 18 11 4 which scores better than 4 4 2 (17 10 4).

[Hotair]

Fingers crossed 

[Roger Smith]

Karl was enough to change the lead, tables are adjusted. 

[Roger Smith]

If Lisa forms and reaches hurricane but not major status, the scoring will change as shown in the tables above, the lead for hotair increases and if this does happen plus one more tropical storm in November, hotair would reach a score of 100.0

Part two of the scoring table shows what you now need and also what you would need after Lisa goes 1 1 0. If Lisa only achieves 1 0 0, or 1 1 1, then I will adjust the tables.

[Roger Smith]

Now Martin has formed east of Bermuda, guidance suggests it may become a cat-1 hurricane but I will adjust the tables again for now on the assumption that Martin remains a tropical storm; meanwhile Lisa has not yet become a hurricane but is still looking set to become one before landfall. Scoring tables above are now adjusted. 

If Martin does become a hurricane (as well as Lisa) then hotair drops to 99.0 and cheese007 reaches 98.5 in the scoring system. Thus if that happens, any further activity would hand over the contest lead to cheese007 at that point. All bets are off if one or both of these late bloomers become majors (not predicted by NHC). Also, let's say a 1 1 1 event happened for storm 14, then the total would be 14 8 3 and I think that would give Torch Tiger a win. If we still have a count of 2 1 0 ahead, that (assuming Martin a hurricane in this scenario) brings us to 15 8 2 which keeps cheese007 in the lead.

So there are at least three forecasters in the hunt, a real outburst in November could move the spotlight further up the table. 

[Roger Smith]

Time for a re-do on the scoring report, let's assume Martin becomes a hurricane (Lisa already has) so that the count will soon be 13/7/2. Here's the scoring and "storms required" for all forecasters ...

(Update, scoring now based on 14/8/2 with the growing confidence of NHC that Nicole will be a hurricane for some portion of Wed-Thurs Nov 9-10). Tables to be adjusted if Nicole stays only a tropical storm.)

 

 

FORECASTER _____________NS _ Hur _ Maj _ Score deductions __ TOTAL SCORE

 

Brentrich ___________________27 __11 __ 7 ____ -45.5 _ -6.0 _ -15.0 __ 33.5 (31)

cptcatz ____________________ 24 __13 __ 6 ____ -27.5 _-15.0 _-10.0 __ 47.5 (30)

ColdRainLover _____________ 23 __11 __ 5 ____ -22.5 _ -6.0 _ -6.0 ___ 65.5 (29)

SnowenOutThere __________ 23 __11 __ 4 ____ -22.5 _ -6.0 _ -3.0 ___ 68.5 (27)

NorthHillsWx _______________23 __ 9 __ 4 ____ -22.5 _ -1.0 _ -3.0 ____73.5 (23)

RJay _______________________ 22 __12 __ 5 ____ -18.0 _-10.0 _ -6.0 ___ 66.0 (28)

wxdude64 _________________ 22 __10 __ 5 ____ -18.0 _ -3.0 _ -6.0 ___ 73.0 (t24)

Prospero ___________________21 __ 11 __ 4 ____ -14.0 _ -6.0 _ -3.0 ___ 77.0 (t21)

Yoda _______________________21 __ 10 __ 6 ____-14.0 _ -3.0 _-10.0 ___ 73.0 (t24)

WxWatcher007 ____________ 21 __ 10 __ 5 ____-14.0 _ -3.0 _ -6.0 ___ 77.0 (t21)

LakeNormanStormin _______21 __ 10 __ 4 ____-14.0 _ -3.0 _ -3.0 ___ 80.0 (20)

IntenseWind002 ___________ 21 ___9 __ 4 ____ -14.0 _ -1.0 _ -3.0 ___ 82.0 (16)

Runman292 ________________20 __12 __ 6 ____ -10.5 _-10.0 _-10.0 ___69.5 (26)

yotaman ___________________ 20 __11 __ 4 ____ -10.5 _ -6.0 _ -3.0 ___ 80.5 (t18)

Roger Smith _______________ 20 __10 __ 3 ____ -10.5 _ -3.0 _ -1.0 ___ 85.5 (14)

DonSutherland1 ____________20 __ 9 __ 5 ____ -10.5 _ -1.0 _ -6.0 ___ 82.5 (15)

Cat Lady ___________________20 __ 9 __ 3 ____ -10.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 ___ 87.5 (12)

Daniel Boone _______________19 __ 11 __ 5 _____ -7.5 _ -6.0 _-6.0 ___ 80.5 (t18)

Wannabehippie ____________ 19 __10 __ 3 _____ -7.5 _ -3.0 _-1.0 ____ 88.5 (9)

___ Contest mean __________ 19 __ 9 __ 4 _____ -7.5 _ -1.0 _-3.0 ___ 88.5 (9)

ineedsnow __________________19 __ 8 __ 5 _____ -7.5 __ 0.0 _ -6.0 ___ 86.5 (13)

NCForecaster89 ____________19 __ 8 __ 4 _____ -7.5 __ 0.0 _ -3.0 ___ 89.5 (8)

GaWx _______________________18 __ 9 __ 5 _____ -5.0 _ -1.0 _ -6.0 ___ 88.0 (t10)

jaxjagman __________________ 18 __ 9 __ 4 _____ -5.0 _ -1.0 _ -3.0 ___ 91.0 (7)

"Expert consensus" _________18 __ 8 __ 4 _____ -5.0 __ 0.0 _ -3.0 ___ 92.0 (7)

snowlover2 _________________ 18 __ 8 __ 3 _____ -5.0 __ 0.0 _ -1.0 ___ 94.0 (6)

StormchaserChuck! ________ 17 __ 11 __ 4 _____ -3.0 _ -6.0_ -3.0 __ 88.0 (t10)

cnimbus ____________________ 17 __ 7 __ 3 ______ -3.0 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 __ 95.0 (4)

tplbge ______________________ 17 __ 6 __ 3 ______ -3.0 _ -3.0 _ -1.0 ___93.0 (5)

Torch Tiger _________________ 16 __ 8 __ 3 ______ -1.5 __ 0.0 _ -1.0 __  97.5 (2)

cheese007 __________________15 __ 7 __ 2 ______ -0.5 _ -1.0 __ 0.0 __ 98.5 (1)

Hotair _______________________13 __ 6 __ 2 _______-0.5 _ -3.0 _ -0.0 __ 96.5 (3)

Ed Snow & Hurricane Fan ____9 __ 4 __ 1 ______ -7.5 _-10.0 _ -1.0 ___ 81.5 (17)

____________________________________

Ranks above assigned to non-forecasters do not influence ranks of lower scoring forecasters. 

Table will be placed in scoring order at end of contest.

 

Required future storm count for your forecast to verify (assuming 14 8 2)

FORECASTER ____________ FORECAST _____ now needs _ (revised target where primary "needs" not mathematically possible.

Brentrich ___________________27 __11 __ 7 ____ 13 _ 3 _ 5 (13 4 4 as 13 3 5 not possible)

cptcatz ____________________ 24 __13 __ 6 ____ 10 _ 5 _ 4  

ColdRainLover _____________ 23 __11 __ 5 _____ 9 _ 3 _ 3

SnowenOutThere __________ 23 __11 __ 4 _____ 9 _ 3 _ 2 

NorthHillsWx _______________23 __ 9 __ 4 _____ 9 _ 1 _ 2 (9 1 1 or 9 2 2 as 9 1 2 not possible)

RJay _______________________ 22 __12 __ 5 _____ 8 _ 4 _ 3 

wxdude64 _________________ 22 __10 __ 5 _____ 8 _ 2 _ 3 (8 2 2 or 8 3 3 as 8 2 3 not possible)

Prospero ___________________21 __ 11 __ 4 _____ 7 _ 3 _ 2 

Yoda _______________________ 21 __ 10 __ 6 ____ 7 _ 2 _ 4 (7 3 3 as 7 2 4 not possible)

WxWatcher007 ____________ 21 __ 10 __ 5 ____ 7 _ 2 _ 3 (7 2 2 or 7 3 3 as 7 2 3 not possible)

LakeNormanStormin _______21 __ 10 __ 4 ____ 7 _ 2 _ 2 

IntenseWind002 ___________ 21 ___9 __ 4 _____ 7 _ 1 _ 2 (7 1 1 or 7 2 2 as 7 1 2 not possible)

Runman292 ________________20 __12 __ 6 _____ 6 _ 4 _ 4 

yotaman ___________________ 20 __11 __ 4 _____ 6 _ 3 _ 2 

Roger Smith _______________ 20 __10 __ 3 _____ 6 _ 2 _ 1 

DonSutherland1 ____________20 __ 9 __ 5 _____ 6 _ 1 _ 3 (6 2 2 as 6 1 3 not possible) 

Cat Lady ___________________20 __ 9 __ 3 _____ 6 _ 1 _ 1 

Daniel Boone _______________19 __ 11 __ 5 _____5 _ 3 _ 3 

Wannabehippie ____________ 19 __10 __ 3 ____ 5 _ 2 _ 1 

___ Contest mean __________ 19 __ 9 __ 4 ____ 5 _ 1 _ 2  (5 1 1 or 5 2 2 as 5 1 2 not possible)

ineedsnow __________________19 __ 8 __ 5 ____ 5 _ 0 _ 3 (5 1 1 or 5 2 2 as 5 0 3 not possible)

NCForecaster89 ____________19 __ 8 __ 4 ____ 5 _ 0 _ 2 (5 1 1 as 5 0 2 not possible)

GaWx _______________________18 __ 9 __ 5 ____ 4 _ 1 _ 3 (4 2 2 as 4 1 3 not possible)

jaxjagman __________________ 18 __ 9 __ 4 ____ 4 _ 1 _ 2 (4 1 1 or 4 2 2 as 4 1 2 not possible)

"Expert consensus" _________18 __ 8 __ 4 ____ 4 _ 0 _ 2 (4 1 1 as 4 0 2 not possible)

snowlover2 _________________ 18 __ 8 __ 3 ____ 4 _ 0 _ 1 (4 0 0 or 4 1 1 as 4 0 1 not possible)

StormchaserChuck! ________ 17 __ 11 __ 4 ____ 3 _ 3 _ 2

cnimbus ____________________ 17 __ 7 __ 3 _____ 3 _-1 _ 1 (3 0 0 best outcome)

tplbge ______________________ 17 __ 6 __ 3 _____ 3 _ 0 _ 0 is best outcome

Torch Tiger _________________ 16 __ 8 __ 3 _____2 _ 0 _ 1 (2 0 0 or 2 1 1 as 2 0 1 not possible)

cheese007 __________________15 __ 7 __ 2 ______1 _-1 _ 0 (1 0 0 is best outcome)

Hotair _______________________13 __ 6 __ 2 ______0 _ 0 _ 0 is best outcome

Ed Snow & Hurricane Fan ____9 __ 4 __ 1 ______0 _ 0 _ 0 is best outcome

____________________________________________

These tables will be adjusted if necessary. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

My bet crazy low strategy came so close.

[Roger Smith]

Nicole has formed and current forecasts take it to the boundary of strong tropical storm or hurricane by about Thursday. I will hold off correcting the scoring table until it either does or does not reach hurricane status. Although a major hurricane seems remote, this is after all 2022. The result of Nicole appearing at all is that cheese007 now moves into a slight lead in the contest (current score 99.5, hotair 98.5, Torch Tiger 96.5) but if Nicole reached hurricane status that would change to 98.5, 96.5 and 97.5 for these three). If it became a major hurricane, Torch Tiger would take over the lead at 98.5, cheese007 would drop to 97.5 and hotair 96.5.)

More updates when the actual outcome is known. 

 

[Hotair]

I had a good run. 2022 sure gave the models a run for their money.

[Roger Smith]

Scoring tables adjusted again as NHC seems more confident Nicole will become a cat-1 hurricane.