May 6th 2022 severe weather threat across AL, GA, SC, NC, & VA

[kayman]

 

 

 

SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
   Southeast to Ohio Valley and Tidewater region today.  Damaging
   winds, hail and a few tornadoes will be possible, with the primary
   threat expected between late morning and early evening.

   ...Synopsis...
   A strongly progressive upper-air pattern will continue through the
   period, over the CONUS, with the main feature pertinent to
   severe-thunderstorm potential being the cyclone now centered over
   the Ozarks. The associated 500-mb low is expected to move
   approximately east-northeastward up the lower Ohio Valley to the
   area between EVV-CVG by 00Z, with a trough southward over the FL
   Panhandle.  Associated mid/upper-level cyclonic flow will cover most
   of the CONUS east of the southern Plains and south of the Great
   Lakes.  By 12Z, the center of the cyclone will decelerate and reach
   WV, while overall troughing amplifies over the East, from the lower
   Great lakes to the northeast Gulf.  Otherwise, height falls aloft
   are expected over parts of the interior Northwest and northern
   Rockies regions ahead of a strong shortwave trough moving inland
   from the Pacific.  Associated shots of DCVA/destabilization aloft --
   over weak but adequate low/middle-level moisture -- will support
   general thunderstorm potential.

   At 11Z, surface analysis showed the primary low over extreme
   southeastern MO with cold front southward across the Mid-South and
   central LA.  A wavy warm front was drawn from the Atlantic, east of
   the Outer Banks, across extreme southern NC near ILM, central SC,
   northeastern GA, eastern portions of TN/KY, to the lower Ohio Valley
   and the low.  The low should migrate eastward to near HTS by 00Z,
   with cold front across western parts of VA and the Carolinas,
   western GA, southern AL, and southern LA.  The warm front should
   reach the southern Delmarva Peninsula and southern/central VA by 00Z
   then decelerate, with a low developing thereon over the southern
   Chesapeake Bay region by 12Z.  By then, the cold front should extend
   from that low over the Outer Banks to northern FL.

   The specific cold-frontal position through this afternoon and
   overnight -- especially over the Gulf Coast States -- may be
   rendered marginally to not relevant because of prefrontal convective
   stabilization that has made southwestern parts of the forecast more
   complex and conditional with time (see below).  However, colder air
   aloft farther north across northern parts of the outlook areas may
   compensate for weaker boundary-layer theta-e enough to maintain at
   least a marginal severe threat.

   ...Southeastern CONUS and Ohio Valley to Tidewater...
   Scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms are expected through
   this evening, shifting eastward to northeastward across the region
   in the form of mixed modes (quasi-linear, clustered/multicellular,
   and probably a few discrete supercells).  Damaging gusts, at least a
   few tornadoes, and sporadic large hail are all still possible --
   with damaging to severe gusts being the most common type of storm
   report expected.

   A large area of severe-thunderstorm potential exists, though more
   uncertain now on the southwest side.  That part of the outlook is 
   complicated by a long-lived, quasi-linear convective system now
   weakening across portions of southwestern GA and the FL Panhandle,
   leaving behind a substantial theta-e deficit over parts of AL and
   most of MS.  Though now weakening, this activity has progressed
   across the region faster and/or much better-organized than almost
   all synoptic and convection-allowing guidance has suggested, from
   00Z initializations right to the past few hours.  For example, the
   HRRR overnight consistently has been unable to keep up with reality,
   in terms of being too slow with convective speed and too fast to
   dissipate the complex.  The few progs that have maintained a
   better-organized squall line (e.g., the 00Z high-res FV3 CAM) still
   were a few hours too slow with convective translation -- but in
   planar thermal/buoyancy guidance, more-reasonably indicate the
   stabilizing effects of the wake cold pool, when spatially adjusted
   eastward.

   Favorable destabilization between the outflow boundary (which arcs
   well southwestward offshore from AL/MS/LA) and the cold front now
   appears more uncertain, though some potential still exists for
   either:
   1.  Strong-severe convection to form along/ahead of the cold front
   at some ill-defined southern rim of the favorable large-scale
   lift/cooling aloft related to the cyclone, but in a moist layer that
   is weaker and shallower than earlier expected, and
   2.  The outflow boundary to weaken enough for prefrontal/low-level 
   return flow (especially above the surface) to result in favorable
   theta-e advection, especially into the near-coastal southeastern LA
   to western Panhandle corridor closest to the remnant boundary.
   Given the uncertainties, and the reasonable lack of substantial/
   organized activity over the coastal plain behind the MCS in progs
   that show it better, unconditional severe probabilities accordingly
   have been reduced (but not eliminated) in much of the post-
   convective area. Further refinements are likely in this region as
   mesoscale trends and later, more-reliable guidance warrant.

   Otherwise, the forecast remains largely the same farther north into
   1.  The Tennessee/Ohio Valley regions, where the influence of
   stronger cooling/instability aloft will be more important to
   convective potential, and
   2.  Over the eastern lobe of the outlook encompassing portions of
   eastern AL and GA to the Tidewater area, where a weakened MCS will
   be less to negligibly influential on destabilization from both
   diurnal/diabatic and advective processes.  The CAPE/shear parameter
   space, especially near the warm front where enlarged hodographs are
   probable, still is expected to favor supercells with a relative
   maxima of tornado potential both away from the most strongly
   stabilized areas of the morning cold pool, and over parts of the
   VA/NC Piedmont eastward.

   ..Edwards/Gleason.. 05/06/2022

 

The official thread on the Enhanced severe threat for May 6th 2022 across the core of this regional subforum coverage area. 

 

[kayman]

Heads up an incoming watch likely

[kayman]

 

 

Tornado Warning

Tornado Warning
NCC023-027-035-045-109-161-061745-
/O.NEW.KGSP.TO.W.0017.220506T1721Z-220506T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
121 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Western Catawba County in the Piedmont of North Carolina...
  East central Rutherford County in western North Carolina...
  Western Lincoln County in the Piedmont of North Carolina...
  Southeastern Caldwell County in western North Carolina...
  Central Cleveland County in the Piedmont of North Carolina...
  Southeastern Burke County in western North Carolina...

* Until 145 PM EDT.

* At 121 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 8 miles northwest of Shelby, or near Polkville, moving
  northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Belwood around 130 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this dangerous thunderstorm include
Cooksville, Northlakes, Propst, Pleasant Grove and Vale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by
posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your
message should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 8134 3580 8133 3580 8131 3575 8119
      3527 8158 3536 8177 3588 8148
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 213DEG 47KT 3540 8162

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

HG

 

First tornado warning for the region in Burke, Caldwell Catawba, Cleveland,  Lincoln, and Rutherford counties

[kayman]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 186
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   140 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northern Georgia
     Southeast Kentucky
     Western North Carolina
     Upstate South Carolina
     Eastern Tennessee
     Western Virginia
     Southern West Virginia

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
     800 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Multiple corridors of severe storms will continue to
   develop and intensify across the region, with damaging winds, some
   hail, and a few tornadoes possible across the region.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 125 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 65 miles east northeast of London KY to
   25 miles west southwest of Anderson SC. For a complete depiction of
   the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU6).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 184...WW 185...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
   storm motion vector 24030.

   ...Guyer

[kayman]

Tornado Warning for Mecklenburg 

[kayman]

[kayman]