Christmas Storm VI

[tgarren]

i just have to think that if it is that close to the coast the QPF will be a little underdone. i would not be surpised if i saw 4 inches out of this now if not more if the ground hasnt gotten too warm from the near 60* we got up to thursday. is their a link to real time soil temps? i saw on some RAH past weather events the Siler City airport has one and thats fairly close to me.

[fig]

This looks good for a lot of people! Nice to see it trending back for Eastern/Central NC! I prob won't see more than a dusting because I'm down in the SE corner, but hopefully some surprises are still in store and some cold air comes out of no where

[eyewall]

Slow down everyone. I don't mean to be a debbie downer but we are still threading the needle here. This is going to come down to the wire and honestly for forecasters here it is a real gut check. This is clearly one of those situations where you can get burned either way.

[strongwxnc]

Good post Jeremy. Hard to be a forecaster in this situation man. I could only image. On Wednesday Morning (after the Euro gave us the present) I was hoping this would be set in stone as tracking hard is a little tough on Christmas Eve

Slow down everyone. I don't mean to be a debbie downer but we are still threading the needle here. This is going to come down to the wire and honestly for forecasters here it is a real gut check. This is clearly one of those situations where you can get burned either way.

[FoothillsNC]

this run starts me snowing tomorrow morning and doesn't end until Sunday morning . A full 24 hours of snowfall. I'll take it! But I'm like eyewall, it could break either way and its impossible at this point to make a forecast with any confidence, anywhere in the Southeast. You just have to shrug your shoulders because literally, who knows. I do think the southern stream is going to stronger than shown though. Its possible the strength of that and its tilt is going to be putting big time moisture overrunning in Alabama and Georgia tomorrow, and then developing northeast from there.

Awesome setup, and we're not used to this , so anything is possible.

[Spidyr2k]

I like this view, 50% opacity and extra fast http://www.daculawea...wide_master.php

It will take a minute to load, it's loading 36 radar sites. Drag the map (after it starts looping) so you can see Texas better.

That's an awsome composite, Dacula! You can actually see the dynamics evolve! And so cool to see the radar clutter around each station.

[neatlburbwthrguy]

One would think if things continue to trend our way through this afternoon that ffc could be thinking of winter storm watches for at least its northern counties?

[CaryWx]

Nice to be waiting on the EURO now to help confirm some other model data than to have it fall back into supporting the 'bad' we were seeing earlier yesterday

Merry Chrstmas Eve, folks!

[kanc2001]

Mebane Weathernet Futurecast... 12/26/10

that looks Jan 2000ish if I do say myself

[Jet Stream Rider]

this run starts me snowing tomorrow morning and doesn't end until Sunday morning . A full 24 hours of snowfall. I'll take it! But I'm like eyewall, it could break either way and its impossible at this point to make a forecast with any confidence, anywhere in the Southeast. You just have to shrug your shoulders because literally, who knows. I do think the southern stream is going to stronger than shown though. Its possible the strength of that and its tilt is going to be putting big time moisture overrunning in Alabama and Georgia tomorrow, and then developing northeast from there.

Awesome setup, and we're not used to this , so anything is possible.

Interesting. I think many of us felt we could see a trend back in our favor.

If the low develops along the Gulf, the models should incorporate that into their runs and would think continue tending in our favor. Certainly something to watch this fine Christmas Eve.

[strongwxnc]

KGSP (before the 12 gfs)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

1046 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2010

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --IT APPEARS THAT THICKER HIGH/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT

SLOWER TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

THEREFORE... SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY COVER WILL BE FEATURED FOR

THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN

IMPACT ON THE MAX TEMP FORECAST...AS THICKNESS VALUES FROM MORNING

RAOBS GENERALLY SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST.

THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO BE TRENDING FURTHER WEST/NORTH WITH THE PRECIP

BAND ASSOCIATED WITH PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY

DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS SUGGESTS QPF MAY BE QUITE A BIT HIGHER

SOUTH OF I-85 THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE P-TYPE FORECAST

IS VERY PROBLEMATIC IN THIS AREA...AND WILL REQUIRE MUCH CLOSER

SCRUTINY BEFORE MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST.

Nowcast bitches

[Jon]

Comparison between 06z GFS this morning to 12z GFS....big change if you ask me and thanks for the PBP that I just read everyone. I definitely don't mind that this system keeps playing with us, if it wants to trend we'll let it!

06z

12z

[NCSNOW]

i just have to think that if it is that close to the coast the QPF will be a little underdone. i would not be surpised if i saw 4 inches out of this now if not more if the ground hasnt gotten too warm from the near 60* we got up to thursday. is their a link to real time soil temps? i saw on some RAH past weather events the Siler City airport has one and thats fairly close to me.

You want have to worry about soil temps. This is a good run for our county. The entire county with maybe the exception of Trinity/Archdale would get 4 inches plus if this verified. Another 50 mile jog west and we'd be getting in the 7-8 inch range. The rates would do the trick and Ive seen soil temps way warmer than what we have overcome. Also our 850's are -4 and colder throughout. Watch the trends, we are really in a good spot cause we have wiggle room that want give us any BL issues and possibly get more qpf than advertised. Like others have said it will be nail bitting time over the next 36 hours to see if the phase can take place.

[RaleighWx]

My latest update.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/snow-possible-christmas-and-sunday-accumulation-amounts-still-up-for-debate

[kanc2001]

Comparison between 06z GFS this morning to 12z GFS....big change if you ask me and thanks for the PBP that I just read everyone. I definitely don't mind that this system keeps playing with us, if it wants to trend we'll let it!

06z

12z

better for inland folks certainly, Myrtle and ILM folks get hosed for an 1" of cold rain, oh well climatology is a big no here anyway. congrats to folks just inland though

[Stormsfury]

that looks Jan 2000ish if I do say myself

That's because it is the Carolina Crusher satellite loop of Jan 2000 lol

Which brings me to my next problem. KCHS and KCAE with another lack of coordination. KCHS has a great discussion, KCAE ...

KCHS snippet - 10:38 am, and actually was a reissue from the early morning discussion.

THE MAIN INTEREST AND CONCERN IN OUR FORECAST REMAINS THE

EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION TIMING AND IT/S EVENTUAL TURNOVER

TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND PROBABLY ALL SNOW PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH

CAROLINA. THE GFS CAME IN SLOWER AND WETTER BUT THE NAM/GEM REMAIN

QUICKER AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO PULL OUT AFTER 12Z AS THE MUCH

COLDER AIR ENTERS THE PICTURE. OF CONCERN WAS THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH

SHOWS A REEMERGENCE OF MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BETWEEN

12Z AND 18Z OVER MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA FORECAST AREA

AS POTENT DYNAMICS PUNCH INTO THE REGION FROM S GEORGIA AND STRONG

BACKSIDE DEFORMATION TAKES SHAPE IN A FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETICAL

FORCED POCKET.

NEEDLESS TO SAY WE JUST DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT TO MAKE

SERIOUS CHANGES ON THIS MORNING/S PACKAGE BUT SIGNALS FROM BOTH

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT SOME BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY

AFFECT AT LEAST SOUTH CAROLINA PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON

SUNDAY AFTER FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO THE W OF U.S. 17 SHOW FREEZING

LEVELS GOING BELOW 1 KFT. BIG QUESTIONS ON WHICH MODEL HAS THE

BEST HANDLE COMBINED WITH A DAYLIGHT SWITCH FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND

QUESTIONABLE SURFACE TEMPERATURES LED US TO MAKE CHANGES SUBTLE.

WE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY

AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY WITH CHANCES OF EITHER LIGHT

RAIN/SNOW OR JUST INLAND LIGHT SNOWS MENTIONED. WE ALSO HAVE

SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA

COAST INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. IT IS HARD TO PICTURE MANY SCENARIOS

FOR ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT SINCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES START

OFF ABOVE FREEZING AND EVEN NEAR 40 AT CHARLESTON. CERTAINLY

TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WILL NOT GO ANYWHERE ON SUNDAY FOR MANY OF

OUR AREAS...THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARE JUST TOO LARGE TO FORECAST

EVEN SMALL ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT. WE URGE CAUTION AS THE

BALANCE BETWEEN THE MOISTURE...LIFT AND COLD AIR IS CLOSE ENOUGH

TO CONCERN US WITH POTENTIAL HEAVIER PCPN THE FIRST PART OF

SUNDAY.

KCAE snippet - 640 am

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

CONFIDENCE NOW HIGH FOR MAINLY A RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS OF

SOUTH CAROLINA AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...

MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER

MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED AS IT TRACKS

EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS KENTUCKY/CAROLINAS THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORT

WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST

ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY...AND TRIGGER WEAK

SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACK

IS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OF THE

CAROLINA COAST...TOO FAR NORTH AND FAST FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL

FOR THE MIDLANDS. THE MUCH STRONGER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL

OCCUR ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE LATER ON SUNDAY AS SYSTEM

PHASES WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE RAIN THAN SNOW WITH IMMEDIATE

SURFACE LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE ZERO. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND MODELS

SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCE SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF COLUMBIA

LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST SYNOPTIC LIFT SATURDAY

EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING

SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN WESTERN GEORGIA. AS 850MB LOW MOVES OFFSHORE

EARLY SUNDAY COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW

FLURRIES/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION AS MOISTURE BECOMES MORE

SHALLOW DURING THE DAY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS

THE NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE DEE AND WILL LIKELY BE QUITE LIGHT. LITTLE

OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS TO THE

CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY RANGING

FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH. LOW SATURDAY NIGHT

CLOSE TO CONSENSUS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY

IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

[kanc2001]

That's because it is the Carolina Crusher satellite loop of Jan 2000 lol

Which brings me to my next problem. KCHS and KCAE with another lack of coordination. KCHS has a great discussion, KCAE ...

KCHS snippet - 10:38 am, and actually was a reissue from the early morning discussion.

THE MAIN INTEREST AND CONCERN IN OUR FORECAST REMAINS THE

EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION TIMING AND IT/S EVENTUAL TURNOVER

TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND PROBABLY ALL SNOW PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH

CAROLINA. THE GFS CAME IN SLOWER AND WETTER BUT THE NAM/GEM REMAIN

QUICKER AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO PULL OUT AFTER 12Z AS THE MUCH

COLDER AIR ENTERS THE PICTURE. OF CONCERN WAS THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH

SHOWS A REEMERGENCE OF MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BETWEEN

12Z AND 18Z OVER MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA FORECAST AREA

AS POTENT DYNAMICS PUNCH INTO THE REGION FROM S GEORGIA AND STRONG

BACKSIDE DEFORMATION TAKES SHAPE IN A FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETICAL

FORCED POCKET.

NEEDLESS TO SAY WE JUST DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT TO MAKE

SERIOUS CHANGES ON THIS MORNING/S PACKAGE BUT SIGNALS FROM BOTH

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT SOME BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY

AFFECT AT LEAST SOUTH CAROLINA PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON

SUNDAY AFTER FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO THE W OF U.S. 17 SHOW FREEZING

LEVELS GOING BELOW 1 KFT. BIG QUESTIONS ON WHICH MODEL HAS THE

BEST HANDLE COMBINED WITH A DAYLIGHT SWITCH FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND

QUESTIONABLE SURFACE TEMPERATURES LED US TO MAKE CHANGES SUBTLE.

WE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY

AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY WITH CHANCES OF EITHER LIGHT

RAIN/SNOW OR JUST INLAND LIGHT SNOWS MENTIONED. WE ALSO HAVE

SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA

COAST INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. IT IS HARD TO PICTURE MANY SCENARIOS

FOR ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT SINCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES START

OFF ABOVE FREEZING AND EVEN NEAR 40 AT CHARLESTON. CERTAINLY

TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WILL NOT GO ANYWHERE ON SUNDAY FOR MANY OF

OUR AREAS...THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARE JUST TOO LARGE TO FORECAST

EVEN SMALL ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT. WE URGE CAUTION AS THE

BALANCE BETWEEN THE MOISTURE...LIFT AND COLD AIR IS CLOSE ENOUGH

TO CONCERN US WITH POTENTIAL HEAVIER PCPN THE FIRST PART OF

SUNDAY.

KCAE snippet - 640 am

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

CONFIDENCE NOW HIGH FOR MAINLY A RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS OF

SOUTH CAROLINA AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...

MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER

MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED AS IT TRACKS

EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS KENTUCKY/CAROLINAS THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORT

WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST

ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY...AND TRIGGER WEAK

SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACK

IS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OF THE

CAROLINA COAST...TOO FAR NORTH AND FAST FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL

FOR THE MIDLANDS. THE MUCH STRONGER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL

OCCUR ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE LATER ON SUNDAY AS SYSTEM

PHASES WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE RAIN THAN SNOW WITH IMMEDIATE

SURFACE LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE ZERO. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND MODELS

SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCE SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF COLUMBIA

LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST SYNOPTIC LIFT SATURDAY

EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING

SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN WESTERN GEORGIA. AS 850MB LOW MOVES OFFSHORE

EARLY SUNDAY COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW

FLURRIES/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION AS MOISTURE BECOMES MORE

SHALLOW DURING THE DAY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS

THE NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE DEE AND WILL LIKELY BE QUITE LIGHT. LITTLE

OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS TO THE

CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY RANGING

FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH. LOW SATURDAY NIGHT

CLOSE TO CONSENSUS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY

IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

:lol

seriously though, maybe CHS got a peek at the 12z GFS before they put that out, is that possible?

[FoothillsNC]

How about JShetly? If you and he both get hammered, then the rest of us will get buried! Just saying...T

well maybe not T, sorry to say that. But the way it probably will go is the moisture pivots from ATL region to Upstatte to here, and then the moisture in SC and NC is growing but coming to an end in Ga as the storm pulls just off the coast,placing the best dynamics over central SC and NC and eastern sections. But you'll get snow I think, starting tomorrow morning, and who knows if the southern low is stronger than progged, it could be a good bit! Its pure nowcast time now I think . Merry Christmas!

[strongwxnc]

Folks. "just saying"

We have a Banter thread here -->

We also have

258 User(s) are reading this topic

144 members, 111 guests, 3 anonymous users

in here right now. Hello.

If this continues to trend wetter I know the IMBY post will fly. PLEASE post those in the above Banter Thread.

Im not a mod but I know they will agree.

[FoothillsNC]

nice spin on the radar in Mineral Wells, just west of Dallas. Looks like its becoming a neutral tilt shortwave, strong one at that, and once its in the western Gulf or southwest Louisiana, I woldn't be surprised at all to watch the entire Southeast forecast change dramatically. This is the biggest potential bust I think i've ever followed. We'll see.

[Prestige Worldwide]

From tombo:

12z gfs ens are big time west...now shows a hit

[tnweathernut]

what is Raleighwx's model page. I am on a computer that I don't have it bookmarked. Thanks in advance for any responses.

[Itunis]

From tombo:

12z gfs ens are big time west...now shows a hit

850 line runs from just north of Bham-ATL-bit south of Greenville- bit south of CLT on the prior frame

[Isopycnic]

Folks. "just saying"

We have a Banter thread here --> http://www.americanw...r/page__st__460

We also have

258 User(s) are reading this topic

144 members, 111 guests, 3 anonymous users

in here right now. Hello.

If this continues to trend wetter I know the IMBY post will fly. PLEASE post those in the above Banter Thread.

Im not a mod but I know they will agree.

+1

If you have the urge to type the following words or phrases, please take it to the "banter" thread:

How much

I think

Remember or reminds me of

What about...

i am not a met but...

What time...

The ____ is about to come out.

The____ is wetter, dryer, south etc (without discussion)

This local met...

merry christmas etc.

[AirNelson39]

850 line runs from just north of Bham-ATL-bit south of Greenville- bit south of CLT on the prior frame

More frames plz!!! Also ensemble qpf map if possible. TIA

[RaleighWx]

what is Raleighwx's model page. I am on a computer that I don't have it bookmarked. Thanks in advance for any responses.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

[Itunis]

More frames plz!!! Also ensemble qpf map if possible. TIA

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

I don't want to slow the board down with images. The ensembles are halfway down the right side of the page.

[Solak]

From the main page thread...

From BOX

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --HIGHLIGHTS

* POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM

AS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WE

HAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...AS

WELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM /THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THE

BENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM

HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS

MORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONE

THING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY

BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TO

THE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TO

WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR

CHANGES.

[HKY_WX]

Tim sensitive*** Checkout the s/w over northwest north dakota on the latest RUC run. That's the culprit.

[RaleighWx]

From tombo:

12z gfs ens are big time west...now shows a hit

Indeed they are