Rankin5150 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Mark, Whats that symbol over my area (CLT/Belmont)? Is this where the most lift is setting up shop? Thanks, as I am in weenie mode and trying to learn at the same time. MERRY CHRISTMAS Brotha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 My morning update. Merry christmas everyone http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/snowstorm-set-to-affect-the-southeast-today-through-sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Charlotte to Raleigh today.... after the kids rifle through their gifs....from the oven to the frying pan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://keithrogershome.com/Chap11Fronts.html Look for 11.10 Stationary fronts But me no Met also Jason!! Mark, Whats that symbol over my area (CLT/Belmont)? Is this where the most lift is setting up shop? Thanks, as I am in weenie mode and trying to learn at the same time. MERRY CHRISTMAS Brotha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Dacula, what are the chances you think that the FFC upgrades us to warning level? Looking at Roberts map and disco last night, given the radar and the westward positioning, wonder if not only are the models playing catch up, but so is the FFC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 KILM AFD Valid 5:40 this Morning.... Current Obs are 27.7 & clear, (forcasted to get into the 50's, though I cannot Imagine a 30 degree rise today, no-way, no how!) Windchill is 28.0 Humidity at 100%, (this is good right?) Dew point setting at 28.00 currently.. Wind calm but very/very light out of the n/NE pressure 30.09 inches & steady... WSW has been hoisted for the KILM Areas this morning..... Now onto KILM Local AFD........ Synopsis... ..significant winter storm to affect the eastern Carolinas... Low pressure will take a track across the northern Gulf of Mexico today. Low pressure will then turn up the southeast coast and intensify tonight and Sunday and then bomb as it moves further up the East Coast Sunday night and Monday. Rain will change to snow late tonight or Sunday morning. Significant snow accumulations are possible. Arctic high pressure will bring dry and unseasonably cold conditions Monday and Tuesday...followed by a warming trend to close out the year. && Near term /through tonight/... as of 3 am Saturday...Winter Storm Watch for all but Georgetown late tonight into Sun night. Most of the models are latching onto a solution that would bring a significant snow to the forecast area beginning late tonight. Accumulating snow should end from SW to NE during sun...but may persist into Sun night across the Cape Fear region. This forecast is leaning heavily on the trend toward a stronger solution and is preferred. As modified Arctic air moved across the Atlantic earlier in the week...pre-conditioning began offshore of the East Coast. The Atlantic surface cyclone intensification index is pointing to explosive development once low pressure reaches these waters. Therefore...when low pressure... currently just beginning its trek across the northern Gulf of Mexico...moves off the coast of Florida/Georgia this evening...it should begin to intensify more rapidly than models had previously indicated. Also...fgen in the 800 mb-7 layer is also pointing to more intense banding of snow on the west side of developing low pressure. Low pressure should be 150 miles east of Cape Fear by end of period... drawing progressively colder air into the forecast area as it moves north and up the coast. Model profiles showing near saturation in the critical dendritic growth zone with the column cooling sharply... lastly at the coast. Rain should change to snow around 06z for westernmost areas with the changeover progressing to the coast Sun morning. Still enough uncertainty in evolution and timing of changeover and resulting snowfall accumulations to hold off on winter storm warnings with this package. && Short term /Sunday through Sunday night/... as of 3 am Saturday...day 2 remains a high-impact...but rather low-confidence forecast. Finally seeing the models catch up with the intensity of the southern stream upper low over Texas...and the heavily pre-conditioned environment over the Gulf Stream...with even the NAM showing a healthy surface low developing off the southeast coast by 06z sun. In spite of the more consistent model forecasts this event still holds a lot of question Marks about the timing of a changeover from rain to snow. Expect the cold air to arrive Sunday morning and the changeover to take place from north to south as the low levels cool...with most if not all the County Warning Area in snow by noon. A stronger system closer to the coast means that precipitation and snow amounts have been increased from the previous forecast. Heaviest amounts will be in the far northern counties...where we could see 2-3 inches with isolated higher amounts in parts of Bladen and Pender counties. Look for most of the snow to fall Sunday morning inland...and Sunday afternoon near the coast. Latest snow amount grids give US 1-2 inches along a corridor from the Florence area into the Cape Fear region...with only Georgetown County unlikely to get an inch of snow. Will raise a Winter Storm Watch at this time for all but Georgetown County. Confidence is highest in the far northern counties but not the 80 percent required for a warning. Residual moisture should exit the coast Sunday night with clearing skies and very cold air building in on northwest winds. Given the amount of wind expected...low temperatures will not go as low as the 850 mb temperatures (-9c) might suggest...with lows dipping into the lower 20s in most areas. In other words, THEY, (NWS) still doesn't have a firm solution on what's going to happen? We "could" start ALL snow, or a short rain/changeover QUICKLY as the Low bombs of the coast? TIA CT @ (KILM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I noticed on the last frame from the Maxwell AFB radar, the winter weather watch now goes deep into southern AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Geeze, my mom in Marion, SC is under a watch. Good luck down there folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I noticed on the last frame from the Maxwell AFB radar, the winter weather watch now goes deep into southern AL. Isnt that a Winter Weather Advisory ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://keithrogersho...ap11Fronts.html Look for 11.10 Stationary fronts But me no Met also Jason!! THANKS Man! WOW...so if I am reading everything correctly, this bodes well for you and I, if it sets up where it is showing? You are talking about a constant array of snow showers nickel and diming us to death? I know there has to be a caveat to where that sucker is located. For instance...if this is sitting over the top of my house, do I need to be to the east or west of the stationary front to reap the full benefits of a raging snow system? Ahh...crazy times ahead bro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Fox Carolina Weather updated map. : snowman:: snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Hawkins Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 We have huge wet flakes falling moderately in NW Bama. The temp is 36 degrees but its coming down so fast its accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Isnt that a Winter Weather Advisory ? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Latest 6z GFS precip thru 72 hours. This one is going to be fun folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I believe everyone is going to be playing catch up with their maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I can already tell in terms of our local TV market that the storm coverage will be an epic fail due to it being Christmas...There's only 1 station that's doing their normal Saturday Morning show and she just showed a map that said WNC would get between 1-2 inches of snow. At least we got Andy and Kendra (FOX Carolina) posting updates on their blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looks like they added on an 1" also. Was 3-6 Fox Carolina Weather updated map. : snowman:: snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Can someone relay the above map to laymen's terms please. I am still learning. So what exactly does the 87 mean for example? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Can someone relay the above map to laymen's terms please. I am still learning. So what exactly does the 87 mean for example? If you are referring to the map I posted then the 87 means .87" of liquid equivalent precip. By very rough guestimates .10" of rain can equal 1" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 New BMX AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looks like they added on an 1" also. Was 3-6 Hopefully we get buried here in Cleveland/Rutherford county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://www.hpc.ncep....psnow_gt_04.gif Looks awesome to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If you are referring to the map I posted then the 87 means .87" of liquid equivalent precip. By very rough guestimates .10" of rain equals 1" of snow. So, the snow ratio is what? And thanks by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So, the snow ratio is what? And thanks by the way. Snow ratio is hard to predict. 10 to 1 maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FFC is saying any significant accumulations wouldn't occur until this evening and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FFC is saying any significant accumulations wouldn't occur until this evening and tonight. Don't see why that would be the case, I see that they're concerned about it bringing warm air but a combination of cold initial surface temps and precip cooling the column should keep us pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Latest 6z GFS precip thru 72 hours. This one is going to be fun folks... Merry Christmas Dawson! Appreciate you keeping us Atlanta folks grounded! I keep seeing where FFC says a mix this afternoon then all snow? I don't see how the column will go snow, mix, then back to snow?? I think this is keeping them from upping the totals as well. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://www.hpc.ncep....psnow_gt_04.gif Looks awesome to me! And also out of step with the Raleigh Weather Service's expectations. They are saying for us to look for heavy banding and big accumulations along and east of I-95. There's not a bit of that in HPC's map. Interesting how, even at this late hour in the game, this storm continues to mystify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 CAE just in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 And also out of step with the Raleigh Weather Service's expectations. They are saying for us to look for heavy banding and big accumulations along and east of I-95. There's not a bit of that in HPC's map. Interesting how, even at this late hour in the game, this storm continues to mystify. I don't think it's so much as that as it's people playing catch up with this system. Things will start to change rapidly by the afternoon if we continue on the current path. There will be a LOT of changes as the day progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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