Jalba Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Here we go, I went from nothing to a warning Now they're calling for 4-6 here. Great! ...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEASTGEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT... .A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. NCZ035-501-502-252100- /O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0017.101225T0937Z-101226T1700Z/ ALEXANDER-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LENOIR 437 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE NORTHWEST FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW. * TIMING...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES. * IMPACTS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND INCREASING SNOWFALL INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING...ROADS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SLICK AND SNOW COVERED AND TRAVEL WILL DANGEROUS. HEAVY SNOW MAY ALSO BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES. * TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 3z SREF has most of NC getting 1" qpf except the wrn 1/3rd that gets 3/4ths of an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Snow Forecast for the GSP region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looks like the WNC mountains are the western bullseye right now... I've updated my map to reflect this http://blizzard.atms.unca.edu/~pppapin/local.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 QC you have alot of faith in SREF or is RUC best short term model? How about Hires as well. Just curious what to kind of watch today. Usually at this point I take the Radar/Sat only and just gauge how things unfold. Thanks, Im up cooking and waiting on Mrs Clauss and the kids to come rolling out in a short while. I'll probably be dead/asleep tonight and miss the storm Ive tracked since Sunday. What a Journey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GSP going with 4-6" here Jeremy, There is talk of Thunder Sn. Also, do you think 4-6" sound about right? Or are you thinking more or less? They are saying we are to start as rn/sn mix. Radar looks impressive right now... Thanks for any input... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i just wonder if the models still have a clue. this s/w is still west of their projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Western 1/3 by Tennesee border? Thanks for the update. Looks like we are in for an awesome winter storm, ON CHRISTMAS DAY. We all have waited our entire life for this and have sweated out close to 10 years from WWB to American waiting on snow for Christmas...much less a BONAFIDE winter storm. Hoping this pans out and of course bust on the GOOD SIDE (more). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Best quote of the night! Hey! Look! The 0z Euro is cranking up a surface low over the Florida panhandle! Hmmm, it's almost like I've seen that map before! Hmmmm. So under a warning as shown above. GSP is calling for 4-6 and by reading the comments (as I went to sleep at 12) still looks like the storm may over preform here in WNC. Time to get caught up on the map before the fam gets here at 7. Great disco btw last night!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Jeremy, There is talk of Thunder Sn. Also, do you think 4-6" sound about right? Or are you thinking more or less? They are saying we are to start as rn/sn mix. Radar looks impressive right now... Thanks for any input... If you are located Anywhere in WNC from Hickory eastward... you are sitting pretty... this is going to be a long duration moderate snowfall event for the mountains. I'm not sure about Thunder Snow, but it perhaps when everything is swinging through in the late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i just wonder if the models still have a clue. this s/w is still west of their projections. Hmmm...I wonder if this can shift things west. If that's the case, ATL could potentially be in for more snow. Hopefully, it does not disrupt the phasing process however as that would be detrimental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 New here guys, so with all of this shifting lately were does that leave us in central NC. Specifically the Henderson area on HWY 1 at the VA border? Things seem to be changing so rapidly, and I don't know what I'm looking at with some of these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i just wonder if the models still have a clue. this s/w is still west of their projections. Brandon look at this motion WV. Looks like the phase is about to go boom in the next 6 or so hours, but possibly alot futher west. What do you think? http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l3®ion=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i just wonder if the models still have a clue. this s/w is still west of their projections. Right now you are almost at a point that you don't want the trough to dig in further west. Right now the deformation band sets up right along the Appalachian Chain in NC. If the trough digs just a little more west, this band could go further north into VA and only skirt NC. Its becoming apparent that there will be a dry slot somewhere in the piedmont of NC, and the more west this trough cuts, the closer that dry slot finds its way to Hickory Hmmm...I wonder if this can shift things west. If that's the case, ATL could potentially be in for more snow. Hopefully, it does not disrupt the phasing process however as that would be detrimental. Again, its about where the band associated with the frontogenesis sets up. Right now, it looks like the band might be setting up right now across north Alabama. So if the trough were to dig further west, that might force that band further north and not affect Atlanta till later in the afternoon, when the band is already coming to an end not to far west. Atlanta is going to need some help from heavy precipitation rates, so you really want to be under this band for a longer duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Brandon look at this motion WV. Looks like the phase is about to go boom in the next 6 or so hours, but possibly alot futher west. What do you think? http://weather.unisy...&t=l3®ion=us definitely. the models are still catching up to this wave over the plains. to me, this means the gulf low will probably be stronger initially, than expected. instead of a quick atlantic transfer, i think we may be looking at a steadily strengthening low as it heads along the gulf coast and up the atl coast. i am now thinking a coastline track may be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 New here guys, so with all of this shifting lately were does that leave us in central NC. Specifically the Henderson area on HWY 1 at the VA border? Things seem to be changing so rapidly, and I don't know what I'm looking at with some of these models. Id say right now, you are sitting in ground zero. I know where your located and by Sunday afternoon you'll be buried in a foot + of snow, espeacilly once our storm starts coming up the GA/Carolina coast tonight. Seriously your sitting in as good a spot as anyone in the SE the way things stand now. You'll get the most qpf w/0 any mixing issues your neighbors just to your east may expierence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Right now you are almost at a point that you don't want the trough to dig in further west. Right now the deformation band sets up right along the Appalachian Chain in NC. If the trough digs just a little more west, this band could go further north into VA and only skirt NC. Its becoming apparent that there will be a dry slot somewhere in the piedmont of NC, and the more west this trough cuts, the closer that dry slot finds its way to Hickory Again, its about where the band associated with the frontogenesis sets up. Right now, it looks like the band might be setting up right now across north Alabama. So if the trough were to dig further west, that might force that band further north and not affect Atlanta till later in the afternoon, when the band is already coming to an end not to far west. Atlanta is going to need some help from heavy precipitation rates, so you really want to be under this band for a longer duration. we'll see where it sets up, but i agree, the dry slot will be an issue for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 definitely. the models are still catching up to this wave over the plains. to me, this means the gulf low will probably be stronger initially, than expected. instead of a quick atlantic transfer, i think we may be looking at a steadily strengthening low as it heads along the gulf coast and up the atl coast. i am now thinking a coastline track may be possible. With that kind of track, does the CLT area usually fare pretty well? Or do we usually get slotted, b/c of transfer? Thanks Brandon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 With that kind of track, does the CLT area usually fare pretty well? Or do we usually get slotted, b/c of transfer? Thanks Brandon! I think clt is fine. only prob is there will be some sleet/rain mixing in for some locales today for a period. i just hope everyone keeps thier chin up b/c when it's all said and done, i think most everyone will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think clt is fine. only prob is there will be some sleet/rain mixing in for some locales today for a period. i just hope everyone keeps thier chin up b/c when it's all said and done, i think most everyone will be happy. Well stated. I think I am suffering with that attm. Seeing the radar painting rain overhead kills me, b/c it is a wast. Thank you for the explanation. One last thing...what should I be looking for, in terms of radar for this event? Good or bad. Thanks in advance, as I know you are busy... Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Finally... Atlanta is finally coming around URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA448 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH GEORGIA UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY... .THE COMBINATION OF TWO WEATHER FEATURES WILL SUPPLY AMPLE MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT... PRODUCING SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>055-057-251800- /O.CON.KFFC.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-101226T1800Z/ DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS- CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW- CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB- NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES- HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON- NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON- HENRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND... ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA... LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT... DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY 448 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NORTH GEORGIA... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTHWARD...WHICH NOW INCLUDES METRO ATLANTA AND THE ATHENS AREA. THE ADVISORY IS NOW ALONG AND NORTH OF A NEWNAN TO MADISON TO WASHINGTON LINE... DUE TO THE THREAT OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND ICY ROAD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THE ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY. TWO WEATHER FEATURES WILL USHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE STATE TODAY...AND WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS SNOW THIS MORNING... THEN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...AND ALL SNOW AGAIN IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE EAST. THE GREATER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROME TO GAINESVILLE LINE WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLY FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA. FOR METRO ATLANTA AND ATHENS...AND THEIR SURROUNDING AREAS... SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY... THEN POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. REMEMBER...ICY ROADS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GSP states "all hands on deck"~~ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 519 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TURNS NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY SUNDAY AND CONTINUES TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY MONDAY. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE VEERED DRAMATICALLY BACK INTO THE HEAVY SNOW CAMP FOR THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A NRN STREAM STREAM SHORT WAVE IS DIGGING MORE THAN THE MODELS HAD ORIGINALLY PREDICTED. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS INDICATED BY THE INCREASING DARK BAND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS IS RESULTING IS DOWNSTREAM UPPER DIVERGENCE AND QG FORCING. A BAND OF 600 MB FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDS ACROSS TN AND INTO WRN NC. THIS BAND IS MOST CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PCPN OVER SRN TN. THE FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH 18 UTC...WHICH MATCHES THE INCREASING PCPN TREND. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF NOW HAVE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN OVER THE MTNS OF NC/SC/GA AND THE NC FOOTHILLS THROUGH 00 UTC TODAY. WITH A SNOW RATIO OF 12:1...THIS WOULD YIELD OVER 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN SPOTS. WE/VE BEEN PLAYING CATCHUP WITH THIS EVENT...AND THE 6 INCH TOTALS I HAVE IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS TODAY WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES AT LEAST. THIS AMOUNT OF SNOW IS LIKELY TO DOWN TREES...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES AND WILL MAKE CHRISTMAS TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE MTNS BY LATER IN THE MORNING....WITH THE NC FOOTHILLS EXPERIENCING SIMILAR CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY. IN SHORT...THIS IS GOING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS WINTER STORM FOR THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS TODAY. THEN THERE IS PART TWO. A POTENT SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS ONLY INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY SNOW TODAY...WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE NRN STREAM WAVE. AS THE NRN STREAM WAVE IS SLOWER AND DEEPER...IT LOOKS TO PHASE MORE WITH THE SRN STREAM ENERGY THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. AS STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...A PIVOTING BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FA. BOTH NAM AND GFS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A GOOD AREA OF NEGATIVE EPV CROSSING THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD 0600 UTC. AS THIS HAPPENS...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE. FOR NOW I/M JUST GOING WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH IS STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WARNING UP THE I-85 AND I-77 CORRIDORS. HOWEVER...IF THIS WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT AND PHASING CONTINUES...THEN HEAVIER SNOW IS VERY POSSIBLE. THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG UP TO THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREAS. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE LOWEST LEVELS TO COOL TODAY AND FOR ALL SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THESE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS SECONDARY AREA OF FORCING WITH THE SRN STREAM WAVE IS LIKELY TO REINVIGORATE THE PCPN THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN A RAPID TRANSITION TO HEAVY SNOW WHERE THERE WAS A MIX BEFORE. STILL...I THINK THE URBAN CORRIDOR WILL CHANGE OVER IN THE 19 TO 20 UTC TIME FRAME...WHICH IS PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE SNOW FALL AND EXPERIENCE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE PIEDMONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well stated. I think I am suffering with that attm. Seeing the radar painting rain overhead kills me, b/c it is a wast. Thank you for the explanation. One last thing...what should I be looking for, in terms of radar for this event? Good or bad. Thanks in advance, as I know you are busy... Jason lol not busy, just up at 530 watching this like the weenie i am. here's a link to allan's ruc radar loop this is through 1pm http://raleighwx.ame...ityrucLoop.html back to bed for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Coming in quickly now AFD from Huntsville FXUS64 KHUN 251019AFDHUNAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 419 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2010 .DISCUSSION... AN ALREADY-MESSY FORECAST HAS GOTTEN EVEN MORE COMPLEX...BUT THE REVISED FORECAST IS GOOD NEWS FOR WHITE CHRISTMAS FANS. A BAND OF MDT-OCCASIONALLY HVY PRECIP HAS GRADUALLY PUSHED INTO THE NWRN HALF OF THE HUN CWFA...AND WITH IT COMES MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND THUS PRECIP TYPES. REPORTS INDICATE A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION FROM VERY LIGHT RAIN/WARM CONDITIONS...TO A SLEET/ SNOW/RAIN MIX...TO SNOW /AS REPORTED IN NRN MS/. 00Z/06Z MODEL RUNS ARE COMPLICATING THE MATTER FURTHER. THERE IS SURPRISINGLY GOOD CONSENSUS ON A CHANNEL OF ENHANCED LIFT DUE TO MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. NEARLY EVERY MODEL-- INCLUDING ENSEMBLE MEANS---HAS DEPICTED A BAND OF 0.25+ INCH QPF ALONG/SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER IN THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING AND LOCATIONS VARY. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM REPORTS AND THIS CONSENSUS...HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE ENTIRE HUN CWFA. MORE OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY S AND E OF HSV...LOOKS TO BE AT RISK FOR 1-INCH SNOWFALL. ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST UNCERTAIN IN NW AL AND THE CURRENT FCST SNOW GRIDS DO NOT REACH LOCAL CRITERIA...BUT REPORTS OF ROAD PROBLEMS WARRANT INCLUDING THEM AS WELL. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS UNDERNEATH THE BAND WILL GET MORE THAN 2 INCHES...WHICH IS LOCAL WARNING CRITERIA. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO UPGRADE ATTM... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. PCPN MAY EASE SOMEWHAT HEADING PAST 18Z AS THE BAND SHIFTS S AND THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO SCTD SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR BOTH PERIODS GIVEN STOUT LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FORCING. ANOTHER QUARTER TO PERHAPS HALF INCH IS EXPECTED MAINLY N AND E OF HSV /ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS/ AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...BUT THIS TOO MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPS WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO RISE VERY MUCH TODAY...AND SUSPECT WE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING SUNDAY AS WELL. UNLIKE THE LAST EVENT...CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH TO MELT OR SUBLIMATE ANY ACCUMULATED SNOW...SO TRAVEL ON SUNDAY LOOKS PROBLEMATIC IF NOT HAZARDOUS. CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE MONDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL STILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...AND TEMPS WILL NOT GET FAR ABOVE FREEZING THEN EITHER. DID NOT HAVE TIME TO GET INTO THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE FAST-CHANGING SHORT TERM. FCST BEYOND MONDAY WAS LEFT AS-IS FROM FRIDAY DAY SHIFT. THANKS TO MEG...JAN...BMX...AND HPC FOR COLLABORATION THIS MORNING! MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas everyone. Just caught up on the great disco. Gsp now calling for 8 Inches in Franklin wow. I have to hand it to Robert. What a great call! You said all this could happen. I don't know who you work for but they should give you a raise. You have called two great events here so far this year when even the models were showing very little. Sorry about your mom. I will be praying for her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 CAE Just in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 QC you have alot of faith in SREF or is RUC best short term model? How about Hires as well. Just curious what to kind of watch today. Usually at this point I take the Radar/Sat only and just gauge how things unfold. Thanks, Im up cooking and waiting on Mrs Clauss and the kids to come rolling out in a short while. I'll probably be dead/asleep tonight and miss the storm Ive tracked since Sunday. What a Journey. Just got up to start cooking after sleeping two hours, looks like I will be out plowing for a couple of days. This storm is going to be amazing. Curious to see how heavy it gets during the night. I remember one storm back about 10 years ago where it was about 3 inches an hour. We ended up with 11 inches. Hard to stop on top of anything like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 All four of my GRLevel3 radars are pointing to the southeast right now, FFC, BMX, GSP, MXX. Looking at the reports from the radar, MS and northern AL, snow is being reported. I think the best Google radar for this right now is this one http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_southeast_master.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I've had your radar up since yesterday afternoon Great job! All four of my GRLevel3 radars are pointing to the southeast right now, FFC, BMX, GSP, MXX. Looking at the reports from the radar, MS and northern AL, snow is being reported. I think the best Google radar for this right now is this one http://www.daculawea...east_master.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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