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Christmas Storm VI


Cold Rain

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its hard to tell on the map i am looking at, but it almost looks like some heavier qpf in north ga (yeah its the weenie in me shining through. sadly, of course, the heavier stuff isnt imby lol). i would love a monster, but heck i would gladly take light snow in christmas!

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@30 wow! It's so close this could be the run.

i'm noticing with the northern wave(s).. the first part is weakening and that wave behind is trending stronger and pulling further west. this is a good sign to keep the SLP further west as a more complete phase would be possible with less influence from the energy over the OH valley.. allowing the northern s/w to sharpen up

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Yikes the 36 is like the JMA. Def. more precip in Ga and Carolinas so far I think. Due north/south flow in northern stream and a low in FL panhandle

i am liking that streak of moisture into n ga around hour 24. question is, after being burned a couple of times, can we trust any of the model qpf amounts now. i am very hesitant to do so. at least there is hope :snowman::scooter:

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Ok, heres the trends. The TX wave holds longer, stronger and makes it to LA coast very in tact , and closed. Thats a big PLUS. (also, I'm sure now that it will make it further than that, because each run keeps extending its life)

the northern stream dives sharply to the west in TN, MISS then suddely backs, which should grab the Gulf low and start sudden development. At this point, who knows if it hooks northeast and what angle and how far north the Precip shield could get thrown, but I'd say Watch out in ATL and points east.

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Ok, heres the trends. The TX wave holds longer, stronger and makes it to LA coast very in tact , and closed. Thats a big PLUS. (also, I'm sure now that it will make it further than that, because each run keeps extending its life)

the northern stream dives sharply to the west in TN, MISS then suddely backs, which should grab the Gulf low and start sudden development. At this point, who knows if it hooks northeast and what angle and how far north the Precip shield could get thrown, but I'd say Watch out in ATL and points east.

thats just mean :devilsmiley: keeping us hanging lol.

holy cow - i just looked at the gfs snowfall map (yes unreliable but still the best yet) and it is putting down some snow across n ga (including near atl) through the upstate towards charlotte. wasnt expecting that. love to see it. would like to see if verify even more

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at 42, 45, and 48 hours theres extremely strong backing at 500 with a very strong Vort in southern GA that is causing good divergence across Ga and the Carolinas. It has a surface low off CHS and a closed 5H over Louisville. The possibility here is the comma head would fan out qickly frm central and eastern GA and cover a good chunk of real estate in that setup. Similar to what happened in Jan 2000 but potentailly further west. NO, i'm not saying this will be that, but the look is close from what I recall.

The think I really like is how the southern stream is stronger, further north and gets phased in partially this run, and closer to the coast. Still going to be a nail biter right to the bitter end.

I'll check qpf ina sec.

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