strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 @30 pops a 850 just S of CAE near the GA line.!! Damn this looks good!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am in Greenville, SC for the Holidays...looks like i'm missing out on a good storm downeast. Hopefully I can make it into town Is it pretty much a non-event out in the upstate? One word for the Upstate, well two..... EVENT ON!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 @39 it seems to be moving faster with less bombing off the coast might effect totals for RDU east towards the northern side of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS keeps NE GA in the 90% 700mb RH thru 15z Sunday and probably past that time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 just boom baby, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 @39 it seems to be moving faster with less bombing off the coast might effect totals for RDU east towards the northern side of NC No it looks fine with totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This isn't a step up or down, but leads credence to the fact this will be a good event. Euro was on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Unbelievable Christmas present unwrapping in front of our eyes, I feel like a little kid more and more with each model run. I take back everything I ever said about the king euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No it looks fine with totals. Guess this comes down to not trusting the maps QPF verbatim right? I've seen you say it time and time again but too much of a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Did it miss the phase @24? I was thinking the same thing. It looked like it was going to be a full phase at hr 24 or 27 but it really didn't happen until hr 30. I'm not sure if I was missing something there. You could see what looked like a phase starting at hr 18 and 21. Can anyone explain this for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 6-10" amount range from what looks like Raleigh up the coast to BOX. BOOM... More qpf over into WNC. No it looks fine with totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 euro redeems itself it appears. still time to screw this up lol, but just when i thought it was over b/n me and the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No it looks fine with totals. less than 1" qpf? I'd image we could be breaking 1" over a good chunk of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 One word for the Upstate, well two..... EVENT ON!!! Thanks good sir! Glad to see you back...I'm so out of the loop with this system. I can't keep up with all the changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Loving the trends...I'm heading to the TV to catch ET's thought's on tonight's activity. Will post in a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 socar an 850 south of cae is a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
euronamgfs suc1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS keeps NE GA in the 90% 700mb RH thru 15z Sunday and probably past that time.... Hello Dawson I reside in Dahlonega as well. What does this imply for our area? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Man this is nice....I can't go wrong here! I'll get a few inches in Kvegas, and I'm headed to Washington, NC tomorrow where I'll probably get 5-10" there as well. What's a weenie to do?? Anyway, I can't watch this storm anymore. Too much to do now. But I have to say that the dedication shown by team here is admirable. Even kind of scary. I hope each and every one of you is rewarded for your efforts this week. If you are all as tired as I am from the shopping, work and staying up all night on this damn board that we love, then go get some sleep! The sledding starts in 24 hours!!! Be good everybody, and have a very Merry Christmas. BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The server is getting really slow- PLEASE NO how much IMBY posts!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I just got back from the hospital. Had to call the ambulance for my mom, so please keep her in your thoughts. The board is obviously slow, and for good reason. Our big one could still be on. I like the nam and now the GFS as well. Haven't had a chance to look at much anything else. Hope everyone is having a good Christmas Eve, and finally I think a lot of us will see a White Christmas. Overnight tomorrow night should be fun with good rates, and 850 developing low and the inverted Savannah River Trough that should enhance snow rates in ne GA , western SC and foothills of NC, so I'm pretty excited to see a Gulf low coming from the perfect position for my area and the Upstate , North GA , its been a long time coming. I want to say what a fun ride this has been, and I know it hasn't happened yet, but something good is about to happen I'm sure. Great discussions from all of us this week. Hopefully soon we'll be looking back with good memories on the Big Christmas Snowstorm of 2010. I'll try to update the blog, but theres a million things going on now. Don't know if I can. Merry Christmas! http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com I'll try to cover the entire southeast but I do concentrate on Ne GA and the western Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If you believe the GFS snow accumulation maps on Wright Weather it shows 1-2.5" for all areas in GA north of Columbus to north of Macon to Augusta and >2.5" for the NE mountain counties. SC and NC do even better except the far coastal counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 less than 1" qpf? I'd image we could be breaking 1" over a good chunk of the state. the reason i believe so is that the qpf looks too light at 30. WIth a bombing low off the SC coast I'd think the precip intensity would be exploding over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Check out the RGEM. Major shift west even from 18z. If the 00z GGEM and Euro don't shift west, then I won't know what to say. It's ever so slightly disappointing that the 00z GFS had slightly lower totals than the 18z. It does seem the the 18z runs are often more "out there" compared to 00z. And also, the models still seem to be coming to terms with how the storm will play out. So we'll see. Even see, 0.75" to 1" of liquid is nothing to sneeze at, and even if we get ratios of 7:1 and some initial rain, and cut that amount in half, that's still a good 2-3" minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 less than 1" qpf? I'd image we could be breaking 1" over a good chunk of the state. I shoulda been more clear. It didnt cut down on amounts.. I agree it should be higher with this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 less than 1" qpf? I'd image we could be breaking 1" over a good chunk of the state. I agree... compared to 18z this run should have more precip over SC/NC but it seems that the model limits itself between .1-.25" amounts at 30hrs when there should be some +.25" amounts at that 6 hour interval. I'm not going to agonize over the precipitation grids though... our event is almost upon us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On my phone, can someone interpret how this could affect things? http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdhmd.html Looks like the problems were for things after our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hello Dawson I reside in Dahlonega as well. What does this imply for our area? Thanks I'm expecting 1-3" for us with the potential for more. Especially if you live above 2,000 feet. What side of town do you live on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Unbelievable with the trends that we keep seeing. I'm beginning to think that 3-5 wouldn't be out of the question for the CLT region with another bit of a shift west like what we have been seeing on the modeling. Just look at the way this thing develops from WV: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Now awaiting to see what the Euro has to say about all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The server is getting really slow- PLEASE NO how much IMBY posts!!!!!! Looks like the northeasterners are going bonkers right now. That usually sets off the load spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Check out the RGEM. Major shift west even from 18z. If the 00z GGEM and Euro don't shift west, then I won't know what to say. It's ever so slightly disappointing that the 00z GFS had slightly lower totals than the 18z. It does seem the the 18z runs are often more "out there" compared to 00z. And also, the models still seem to be coming to terms with how the storm will play out. So we'll see. Even see, 0.75" to 1" of liquid is nothing to sneeze at, and even if we get ratios of 7:1 and some initial rain, and cut that amount in half, that's still a good 2-3" minimum. Even just looking at the 500mb heights... this is a more amplified solution that should be able to spit out more precip than the 18z run. There isn't much convection in the Atlantic robbing the moisture source either, so I'm going to say the GFS just isn't handling the banding that will be occurring on the northwestern flank of the surface and 850mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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