BIG FROSTY Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Now NWS was giving me up to two inches this evening. Now the NAM came in the wettest yet at 0z. And new package has down graded my accum ? I don't overstand that NCZ003-251115-SURRY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOBSON953 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010.OVERNIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW. LITTLE OR NO SNOWACCUMULATION. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT ANDVARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. .CHRISTMAS DAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LITTLEOR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHTAND VARIABLE WINDS. .SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOWACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THEMORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE ORNO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. .SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THEEVENING. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 19. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS7 ABOVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Virga already west of Winston-Salem? http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=rax&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 this is only said partly in jest, perhaps whatever 'initialization error' there was should be duplicated if the gfs verifies I think/hope you made the right choice. Time for us to shine! Still thinking or back to thinking 3-5" a safe bet for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For those Charlotte and west towards the foothills...I suspect Eric Thomas will provide a very interesting discussion on this evening's model trends.Plus he will get a good enough look at the GFS before going on-air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Dan, I do not get WBTV anymore. Would love a break down man. For those Charlotte and west towards the foothills...I suspect Eric Thomas will provide a very interesting discussion on this evening's model trends.Plus he will get a good enough look at the GFS before going on-air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Dan, I do not get WBTV anymore. Would love a break down man. Sure thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I would think GSP will be putting up a winter storm watch before the 11pm news for their whole area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Exactly what I'm banking on..be anything like the rainstorms we've had lately and we're sitting pretty. Lake Toxaway, wherever he is will be buried!! thats what i'm hoping for oconeexman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think/hope you made the right choice. Time for us to shine! Still thinking or back to thinking 3-5" a safe bet for us. i sure hope so..and if we go back to our 3-5" i might pass out they upped my totals quite a bit with the latest advisory. glad to see they are expanding. the gfs is going to be very interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Raleigh still doesn't have Guilford County under an advisory. What are they possibly seeing to not throw up a WWA at least here and in other western portions of their viewing area? My county is .40 or higher every model since mid afternoon, with the highest ratios to boot. Last weekend we had 3-4 hours straight snow, with over an inch of accum and never got an advisory, while they continued them off to the east for naught mostly. Not sure what their thinking is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Virga already west of Winston-Salem? http://radar.weather...1101111&loop=no Just took look out window north of Kernersville and confirm virga. Radar looking very busy with heavier returns to pass over us within next fifteen minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Will some one illiterate on what is happening in Middle Tn, this is not the main system???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Based on real time radar last 6 hr loop; it looks like some moisture from the GoM is being entrained in our southern branch low now in east Tejas. I was expecting that low to move a bit more south closer to the coast line itself. Is it a concern that it is as far north as it is? It looks to be moving due East at this point or close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Check this out: 2Z RUC at 16 hours 1z RUC at 17 hours. See any difference in our southern shortwave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 thats what i'm hoping for oconeexman Ahh there you are! You should do super good if anything like the last rain event!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doppler5 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Will some one illiterate on what is happening in Middle Tn, this is not the main system???? The activity moving into TN is associated with the northern stream shortwave. The southern stream shortwave continues to move across TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Will some one illiterate on what is happening in Middle Tn, this is not the main system???? Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Both look very healthy. I need a crash course in the RUC !! Check this out: 2Z RUC at 16 hours 1z RUC at 17 hours. See any difference in our southern shortwave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Based on real time radar last 6 hr loop; it looks like some moisture from the GoM is being entrained in our southern branch low now in east Tejas. I was expecting that low to move a bit more south closer to the coast line itself. Is it a concern that it is as far north as it is? It looks to be moving due East at this point or close to it. The upper level low is back in central Texas.. not with the main band of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Check this out: 2Z RUC at 16 hours 1z RUC at 17 hours. See any difference in our southern shortwave? looks much stronger and starting to get neg tilt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Oh how I'd love to see this verify..all the way to the gulf coast. Just a few flakes and I"d be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Will some one illiterate on what is happening in Middle Tn, this is not the main system???? Looks like warm advection or just a lead shortwave in the northern branch could be causing that precipitation. You can follow it on the NAM and it peters out overnight as it moves off into VA/WV, while the real deal gets going to the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Based on real time radar last 6 hr loop; it looks like some moisture from the GoM is being entrained in our southern branch low now in east Tejas. I was expecting that low to move a bit more south closer to the coast line itself. Is it a concern that it is as far north as it is? It looks to be moving due East at this point or close to it. no we don't want it to go too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Check this out: 2Z RUC at 16 hours 1z RUC at 17 hours. See any difference in our southern shortwave? Much stronger, with the northern shortwave to the nort and slightly behind it. Man if this thing ends up bombing out....watch out. Local news still calling for <1" saying that itll start as rain and change to snow late. God I hope theyre wrong, stormfury has made me feel better about temp issues. I'm sitting at 26.4 and our forecast low was 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For those wondering what it's going to be like in West central Georgia/East Central Alabama. Right now, the temps are a tad too warm at 700 and above to see any real snow fall. This will start out as rain, and then toward the evening hours, it will become a mix of rain/sleet/snow. Sleet is possible starting after about... 4pm (depending how warm we get tomorrow). The snow could start mixing in around 7pm or thereafter. The heights suggest we will be plenty cold from 850 to the sfc, but it's the 700 to 850 range that will do us in for seeing any real snowfall like the Mets are talking about for Eastern Georgia and the Carolinas. We would have to see the levels above 850 get just a little cooler and we could see snow... so don't write it off COMPLETELY just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM is farther west at 36 than the NAM- a big hit for most of NC/SC especially central sections and even north and central GA do pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 yep i think it will blossom then as well. i think you are sitting in a great spot for tomorrow. temps shouldnt be an issue for you. im about 30 miles south of you in dunwoody. hoping to do well along with you... Yeah this is getting very exciting. Kind of hard to believe. Sitting at 30.4 at this moment. Believe it or not I'm about 55 miles north of you. Doesn't seem like that far on the map but it takes me over an hour to get to Dunwoody from my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 0z rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 0z rgem. Awesome. Unreal how the models are coming into our favor here on christmas eve. I think many of us are happier than most kids on christmas eve! Lets hope the GFS looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 no we don't want it to go too far south. OK. Certainly not so far that its not interacting w/ the northern branch. It looks pretty good, I just didn't want it to run inland too far either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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