WidreMann Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Anybody want to speak to the NAM's warm surface temps and low snow totals for central NC? It paints an inch across a lot of central NC with accumulated liquid around 0.5". It also keep surface temps above freezing the entire time for most of central and eastern NC. Kind of strange, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Can someone please post a link to RaleighWX's model page? I know it's been posted before but this time I'll bookmark it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I will be happy with 2-4. It looks like I am riding the very western edge of that here in Southern Pines. Same here but I'll admit, if I just miss 6 to 8 inch totals to the east I would be a little jealous lol But if there is any appreciable snow still falling beyond tomorrow evening here and in the upstate/western nc, ratios should be pretty decent with 850mb temps falling to -6c after 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Can someone please post a link to RaleighWX's model page? I know it's been posted before but this time I'll bookmark it. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You know who really messed up earlier? HPC with their "the GFS initialization is crap, ignore that model" when it may actually end up being pretty good. Thanks a lot. Yeah, but this is a difficult forecast anyway. Also have to believe the 2nd tier boys up there are likely on duty for Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Anybody want to speak to the NAM's warm surface temps and low snow totals for central NC? It paints an inch across a lot of central NC with accumulated liquid around 0.5". It also keep surface temps above freezing the entire time for most of central and eastern NC. Kind of strange, actually. Pretty unlikely imho. Back during that little freezing rain event we had, the nam was a couple of degrees too warm. Showed 33 when it reality it was 29/30. Needless to say that if that type of error here happens, it's a big deal. I can't imagine temps not dropping to 32 to 33 with moderate to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Anybody want to speak to the NAM's warm surface temps and low snow totals for central NC? It paints an inch across a lot of central NC with accumulated liquid around 0.5". It also keep surface temps above freezing the entire time for most of central and eastern NC. Kind of strange, actually. I was wondering that too but I think it cools quicker the NAM has it. Remember the NAM solution is still elongated a bit and somewhat weaker than GFS. Yeah rain could occur at the beginning but I think it would turn quicker than the NAM advertises. The whole profile crashes otherwise looking at the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The radar will pop back in MS after midnight as the shortwave digs. Just wait. yep i think it will blossom then as well. i think you are sitting in a great spot for tomorrow. temps shouldnt be an issue for you. im about 30 miles south of you in dunwoody. hoping to do well along with you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Jeremy the SREF Lookout just posted has me on the NW edge. Screw it. This has " over-performance" Written all over it. Plus, Sitting here without a WWA. I assume that will change. Exactly what I'm banking on..be anything like the rainstorms we've had lately and we're sitting pretty. Lake Toxaway, wherever he is will be buried!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Snow map on SV says 1-4 for most of Ga and 4-8 for most of NC and SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Anybody want to speak to the NAM's warm surface temps and low snow totals for central NC? It paints an inch across a lot of central NC with accumulated liquid around 0.5". It also keep surface temps above freezing the entire time for most of central and eastern NC. Kind of strange, actually. With a system like this, surface temps will be below freezing especially for central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No doubt. Crashing 850's would be great. Any chance in a lee development in NC? Happen last Jan and fore-longed the snow for about 4 hours.. Same here but I'll admit, if I just miss 6 to 8 inch totals to the east I would be a little jealous lol But if there is any appreciable snow still falling beyond tomorrow evening here and in the upstate/western nc, ratios should be pretty decent with 850mb temps falling to -6c after 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 yeah raleighs just waiting, it's better to just add all of the counties later instead of jumping the gun. Its a watch, not a warning. They should issue the watch. No brainer I'd say. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 looking at the tdot webcams in and around nashville, looks like snow is starting to stick. hard to tell since its nighttime but you can definitely see some white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mist Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Strongwxnc: GSP just put us and others under a WWA My link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Its a watch, not a warning. They should issue the watch. No brainer I'd say. TW Agreed. If they don't put it out soon, they're going to miss the 10 and 11 PM newscasts and no one is going to know if they issue one at 2 AM in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No doubt. Crashing 850's would be great. Any chance in a lee development in NC? Happen last Jan and fore-longed the snow for about 4 hours.. Same here but I'll admit, if I just miss 6 to 8 inch totals to the east I would be a little jealous lol But if there is any appreciable snow still falling beyond tomorrow evening here and in the upstate/western nc, ratios should be pretty decent with 850mb temps falling to -6c after 03z. Where would be battle lines be in NC? Snow map on SV says 1-4 for most of Ga and 4-8 for most of NC and SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Snow map on SV says 1-4 for most of Ga and 4-8 for most of NC and SC If you don't mind ? How far north and west does it show the 4-8 in NC ? You say most ? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Snow map on SV says 1-4 for most of Ga and 4-8 for most of NC and SC what is SV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 what is SV? Storm Vista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Can someone please post a link to RaleighWX's model page? I know it's been posted before but this time I'll bookmark it. if you hit the GO TO button at the top right of the page it has the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Can someone please post a link to RaleighWX's model page? I know it's been posted before but this time I'll bookmark it. Just FYI for all.. it's in the menu link at the top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yep. GSP is CYA. I assume they wanted to get that out before the shift change. Thanks bro. Nice to have some more Rutherford Folks around!! Strongwxnc: GSP just put us and others under a WWA My link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I know we all give FFC a pretty hard time...but here's a snippet of their discussion tonight: SO FOR NOW WILL PASS CONCERNS ONTO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT. They must have said this 10 times in the past 3 days with regard to the model runs. I wonder if anyone over there wants to make a decision on anything. and i bet the midnight shift is cussing them out under their breaths big time lol well i took the plunge, bailed on the family christmas and headed back to mby. i just hope i chose wisely (i was down near athens). i hope we all enjoy gsp's update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If you don't mind ? How far north and west does it show the 4-8 in NC ? You say most ? TIA For SC GSP is on the edge in NC the very NW tip.....Also just west of Myrtle Beach up to Jacksonville east is 8-12!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yep. GSP is CYA. I assume they wanted to get that out before the shift change. Thanks bro. Nice to have some more Rutherford Folks around!! Lmao and they leave Caldwell county out of it, man they sure are a conservative bunch over there. A lot and I mean a lot of people are going to be caught off guard in WNC all the news programs are saying a dusting for the foothills. Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You know who really messed up earlier? HPC with their "the GFS initialization is crap, ignore that model" when it may actually end up being pretty good. Thanks a lot. this is only said partly in jest, perhaps whatever 'initialization error' there was should be duplicated if the gfs verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Anybody want to speak to the NAM's warm surface temps and low snow totals for central NC? It paints an inch across a lot of central NC with accumulated liquid around 0.5". It also keep surface temps above freezing the entire time for most of central and eastern NC. Kind of strange, actually. NAM completely botches surface temperatures in situations like this. It did it in the Feb storm, and many other events being too warm biased on the surface. the only time it seems to get a handle in winter weather situations actually are cold air damming and usually in better wedge situations, verify colder too. I wouldn't even worry about the SFC temperature depiction with solid steady precipitation rates, one, and two, it's not even taking into account some of the banding features which obviously is going to dynamically cool the boundary layer at the SFC with 850mb's literally crashing on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For SC GSP is on the edge in NC the very NW tip.....Also just west of Myrtle Beach up to Jacksonville east is 8-12!! So GSO, RDU, INT, CLT are all in 4-8"? I would assume these areas would get that much based on QPF and ratios. Very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So GSO, RDU, INT, CLT are all in 4-8"? I would assume these areas would get that much based on QPF and ratios. based on the model QPF verbatim.. that's a good range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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