DCMetroWinston Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 talk about troughiness http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_300_036m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looks to my untrained eye like the upstate of SC could see at least 24hrs of snowfall according to the NAM...that my friends I will take..on east can have their foot and good luck with that! I'll take 3-6" and love it. Awesome disco today during all the family outings and other festivities BTW! And it looks like LOOKOUT will do well again, down deep that really makes me happy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Two things: 1) 750mb lift patterns are strange, but believable I guess. They keep the snow from getting into central NC, or at least the heavier amounts. Might be suspect at this point 2) Anyone notice how ridiculously warm the NAM is at the surface? Temps never really get below freezing here despite cold 850s and precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On the blackberry was away for th 18Z runs. I'm guessing they have coninued the trend? Trying to catch up best I can on this little screen can someone post a quick summary of 18z and the 0z so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigdog_10_2002 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Probably just a weenie but I think we luck out, no science but with every run trending west a bit gotta wonder. I agree. I was going to mention this yesterday, but wasn't it just earlier this year (Feb-March), we were always ticked off at the west trend that would occur within 36 hours. I'm actually glad to see it right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think I would have to jump off a bridge if the 0z nam totals were exactly right...surrounding by heavier totals in every direction except to the west. Seems to be a little disagreement between the gfs/nam about where that axis of heavier totals that extend back into ga. One thing is for sure, central sc..ie columbia is going to get nailed. But it's interesting that with each run, there is intensification and more precip. Would be wonderful if this trend continues through tomorrow. Amazing that some areas could see snow for up to 24 hours. What an amazing turnaround from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM having a little trouble consolidating the SLP off the coast..but the upper levels suggest a heck of storm moving up the coast line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looking at NAM model soundings near Florence,SC you will have no problem seeing snow after 6z Sun. Before that may be a touch warm at the SFC. This is verbatim of course. Diabatic cooling may occur quicker if precip is heavy enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I know we all give FFC a pretty hard time...but here's a snippet of their discussion tonight: SO FOR NOW WILL PASS CONCERNS ONTO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT. They must have said this 10 times in the past 3 days with regard to the model runs. I wonder if anyone over there wants to make a decision on anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Maybe the models are continue to struggle with this time frame. that pops that 850 near GS> like Skip I always assumed what he stated also... Mark I still say you and I do well and our surroundings especially if the NAM qpf is under forecast again! I expect You to join the advisory, then watch and warning by late tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Nam gives me .35 qpf best run yet for my area N.Foothills NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canes2614 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 and RDU issues the watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So is this turning into the historic monster the Euro predicted for days or not quite? Not quite... although its far more amplified than anybody would have suspected 24 hours ago. Again most of this has been due to the northern stream features working out in our favor rather than the southern stream s/w being beneficial. Basically, we will have enough energy hanging back to allow for a slightly earlier phase, and thus heavier precipitation values make it further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Verbatim, this is a good hit for the Eastern Carolinas. KCHS would get a good solid 12 hours of snow and at times moderate with what appears to be a stronger frontogenesis band. I'm not going to take the snowfall amounts literally on the NAM because dynamic cooling process would quickly overcome boundary layer temperatures at the surface (and the NAM is generally horrid warm biased in situations like this at the SFC) I'll await the 00z GFS and to some degree the 00z EURO to make any best guesses at this point, but this is looking more likely a decent storm whether she goes nuclear or conventional still remains in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEAGE NOW Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Big comma shape on radar in east Texas ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 We will see Bo But Like Skip pointed out (I know RObert will chime in later) if that pops an 850....the heavy shield (as explained by Brandon and others todays) is to the N and W of the 850 L. Maybe the NAM is missing it (Like SF noted) and trying to find...Well, we shall see. Great disco folks... Mark I still say you and I do well and our surroundings especially if the NAM qpf is under forecast again! I expect You to join the advisory, then watch and warning by late tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 and RDU issues the watches And here it is... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 927 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010 ...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING... .A STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY... THEN MOVE OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A COASTAL STORM OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM SHOULD TRAVEL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089-251030- /O.NEW.KRAH.WS.A.0004.101225T2100Z-101226T2200Z/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH- EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE- RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON... WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG... NASHVILLE...ROCKY MOUNT...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...SMITHFIELD... WILSON...SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO... ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 927 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW... OR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT... THEN QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS IT SPREADS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY EVENING. SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CONTINUES TO BE AN SITUATION IN WHICH THE FORECAST MODELS ARE HAVING A MORE DIFFICULT TIME THAN USUAL IN THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM. AT THE CURRENT TIME... GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY... ODDS ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. * LOCATIONS AFFECTED: LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS ALL THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A HEAVIER BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO SUNDAY IN WHICH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY FALL. AT THE CURRENT TIME... AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROXBORO TO BURLINGTON TO ROCKINGHAM APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW. THIS IS THE AREA IN WHICH A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. * PRECIPITATION TYPES: THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. IT MAY BEGIN AS SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF RALEIGH... BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW SATURDAY EVENING. * ACCUMULATION: 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE IN THIS WATCH AREA... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. * TIMING: THE MAIN TIMING OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 500 PM SATURDAY AND NOON SUNDAY. * IMPACTS: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA. * TEMPERATURES: THE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING QUICKLY WITH THE ONSET OF THE SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ BADGETT/KRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This maybe a sure enough weenie question, but are we not expecting the radar to really pop and draw moisture up out of the gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Any snow would be huge here. For it to snow two times in one year would be unheard of. 2-4" east of Raleigh is big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You know who really messed up earlier? HPC with their "the GFS initialization is crap, ignore that model" when it may actually end up being pretty good. Thanks a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Raleigh still doesn't have Guilford County under an advisory. What are they possibly seeing to not throw up a WWA at least here and in other western portions of their viewing area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not sure if it has been posted but here's the 21z sref..generally near 0.35 to 0.40 for most in the upstate/north ga. However, much heavier totals to the east in sc/nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I will be happy with 2-4. It looks like I am riding the very western edge of that here in Southern Pines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 and RDU issues the watches WSW Orange county east. - 1-2 with up to 4" possible in areas, mainly east of 95. Burlington west is left out. 00z NAM gives GSO .44 qpf. Hmmmmmmm.......... Seems the northwest piedmont would stand a very good chance of 2-4 at least. If the GFS comes in like the last one, I suspect all of the RAH area will be added. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You know who really messed up earlier? HPC with their "the GFS initialization is crap, ignore that model" when it may actually end up being pretty good. Thanks a lot. i really think atl metro is in line for at least 1 inch of snow, possibly upwards of 2 inches according to latest NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canes2614 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 yeah raleighs just waiting, it's better to just add all of the counties later instead of jumping the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Raleigh still doesn't have Guilford County under an advisory. What are they possibly seeing to not throw up a WWA at least here and in other western portions of their viewing area? My guess is its coming after the gfs or maybe the after midnight shift. Sure don't see the reasoning for not including thier entire area. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Jeremy the SREF Lookout just posted has me on the NW edge. Screw it. This has " over-performance" Written all over it. Plus, Sitting here without a WWA. I assume that will change. I will be happy with 2-4. It looks like I am riding the very western edge of that here in Southern Pines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think I would have to jump off a bridge if the 0z nam totals were exactly right...surrounding by heavier totals in every direction except to the west. Seems to be a little disagreement between the gfs/nam about where that axis of heavier totals that extend back into ga. One thing is for sure, central sc..ie columbia is going to get nailed. But it's interesting that with each run, there is intensification and more precip. Would be wonderful if this trend continues through tomorrow. Amazing that some areas could see snow for up to 24 hours. What an amazing turnaround from yesterday. What is the boundary layer situation? I'm at 33 already so if it will get on and get started n Ga would be happy. But I hate to think it drags on in here after the sun gets up good and we start losing qpf. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This maybe a sure enough weenie question, but are we not expecting the radar to really pop and draw moisture up out of the gulf? The radar will pop back in MS after midnight as the shortwave digs. Just wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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