beanskip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Have been out for a while, it seems like the thrill is going down, is their still a problem with model output???? Lookout, what's it going to take????? :devilsmiley: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 sorry, I tried in My limited knowledge. coupled with AFD and My "eye in the ske obs", that it's largely ingnored.... I'll keep my post's limited to hurricane season for now on... Peace all ct.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ridge is sharp at 18!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So far I still see room for the NAM to amplify this baby more than at 18z... the ridging out west is stronger, and the southern stream is stronger, which will add more energy to the phase with the northern stream. Our piece of energy is actually a bit further west, and slightly north than 18z. Overall, I see more positives than negatives with this run so far and the next 6-18 hours will be fun to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 At 18 this looks pretty similar to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 sorry, I tried in My limited knowledge. coupled with AFD and My "eye in the ske obs", that it's largely ingnored.... I'll keep my post's limited to hurricane season for now on... Peace all ct.. no don't leave I'm in Little River, SC looking for some info for the coast. I am afraid the temps might be an issue. Hope you or I see some good stuff come Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Our low is way north of 18z. @24 looks interesting that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Boy, big changes from the 18z NAM at 24 to the 0z Nam at 18, at 5h -- need a met to explain whats happening, but southern stream shortwave is well NE of its 18z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 we have a closed 1012 SLP near NO at 18.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoebuck Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GSP apparently is watching closely and may make some changes 000 FXUS62 KGSP 250121 AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 821 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --SNOW FALLING AS FAR SE AS MIDDLE KY/TN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...AND STILL EXPECT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE NC MTNS BEFORE DAYBREAK AND PROBABLY RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATION ESPECIALLY ACRS TENN BORDER COUNTIES. SENSIBLE WX ELSEWHERE WILL SIMPLY BE LIMITED TO AN INCREASE/THICKENING OF HIGHER LVL CLOUDS WITHIN THE QUICKENING/DEVELOPING WSW ALOFT. WILL PLAN ON MAKING SOME DOWNWARD TEMPERATURES TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND THE MOUNTAINS WHERE FALL HAS BEEN QUICKER THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING. WAITING FOR THE 00 UTC NAM AND 21 UTC SREF TO POST TO SEE IF THEY SUPPORT THE BULLISH TRENDS OF THE 18 UTC OP MODELS BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FCST. STAY TUNED... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 @30 this run of the NAM looks better then 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 trough sharper and further west a bit .. good trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 1012 SLP over the FL/GA border at 24. heavy snow breaking out over W NC thru N GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 heavy snow into the foothills and western piedmont at hr 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 @36 boom! Lots of moisture over the eastern half of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 precip shield at 30 stronger and more expansive compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 850 low pops at 30 hours about over GSP -- well west of 18z which had it closer to Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Big winner this run is going to be the eastern half of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I always thought these 850 closed lows were the ticket to big snows -- wonder why there doesn't seem to be a correlation between them, when modeled with this storm, and QPF. 850 low pops at 30 hours about over GSP -- well west of 18z which had it closer to Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 @36 boom! Lots of moisture over the eastern half of SC. if the turn up the coast were just a little tighter, we'd have bomb like numbers... just need a slightly faster phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Much better run, gonna come down to a nowcast eastern half of SC and NC look to hit big on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I always thought these 850 closed lows were the ticket to big snows -- wonder why there doesn't seem to be a correlation between them, when modeled with this storm, and QPF. too separated and strung out. if the 850mb low is near GSP, then the placement of either the 850mb or the sfc low is wrong. there shouldn't be a 300 mile spreading between SFC to 850mb lows and would really screw with 850mb temperatures. The 00z NAM isn't resolving technical issues at least in my mind to resolve questions still unanswered to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 if the turn up the coast were just a little tighter, we'd have bomb like numbers... just need a slightly faster phase. Yea it is so friggin close on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 QPF numbers? Temp issues for eastern SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yea it is so friggin close on this run. The first round puts down around 0.5" for the area. It's round 2 that would really blow the numbers up going into Sunday if it were just a hair faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 QPF numbers? Temp issues for eastern SC? Eastern SC has 0.5-0.75 in most places with a swath of 1" plus just inland extending just west of MYR and in NC west of ILM. Didn't get a check on temps yet but I imagine snow would translate down there in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The first round puts down around 0.5" for the area. It's round 2 that would really blow the numbers up going into Sunday if it were just a hair faster. Probably just a weenie but I think we luck out, no science but with every run trending west a bit gotta wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Maybe the models are continue to struggle with this time frame. that pops that 850 near GS> like Skip I always assumed what he stated also... too separated and strung out. if the 850mb low is near GSP, then the placement of either the 850mb or the sfc low is wrong. there shouldn't be a 300 mile spreading between SFC to 850mb lows and would really screw with 850mb temperatures. The 00z NAM isn't resolving technical issues at least in my mind to resolve questions still unanswered to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 QPF numbers? Temp issues for eastern SC? Hey Southern Snow, the nam is a free site. The link below is to the NCEP site. You should be able to find your answer there. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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